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Wild Card Round NFL Picks

Updated: Jan 21, 2023

What a dramatic ending to the regular season as the Lions walked into Lambeau Field and stunned the Packers, ending their bid for an NFC wildcard spot. The playoff matchups are set and let's take a look at this weekend's games.


**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Jan. 14)


Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-4)


Geno Smith has been terrific for the Seahawks this year after some uncertainty about where their offense would be without Russell Wilson. However, I have a hard time thinking he will be able to move the ball down the field with any consistency against this stout 49ers defense, especially if the rain plays a factor. There's been lots of chatter about whether Brock Purdy will continue his stellar play as a rookie in the postseason and I don't think it will matter much as the Niners should be able to pound the rock with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. Pick: 49ers, 24-13.


Line: 49ers -9.5

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers


Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)


The fact that the Chargers will be without Mike Williams for this game is a massive blow to their ability to stretch the field. On top of that, if it ends up being a major factor, there will be a lot of criticism of Brandon Staley's decision to play his star wideout in their Week 18 matchup against the Broncos. This game will come down to coaching and defense; the Jags are better at both. Justin Herbert will be tough to contain in the pocket, but I think this Jags defense will be up to the task. Pick: Jaguars, 24-21.


Line: Chargers -2.5

ML: Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars


Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ Buffalo Bills (13-3)


This game might look completely different if Tua Tagovailoa were available for it, but the Dolphins will have to lean on Skylar Thompson to pull off the upset of the Bills. It's been a whirlwind last two weeks for this Bills team and I think they will come together, riding some momentum from their win last week over the Pats and go on a run here for their teammate Damar Hamlin. The Dolphins have offensive weapons, but Thompson is out of his league here against Josh Allen. Pick: Bills, 27-10.


Line: Bills -13.5

ML: Bills

Spread: Bills


New York Giants (9-7-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-4)


Kirk Cousins is 1-2 in the playoffs over his career and now gets a home game in front of a raucous Vikings crowd. These two teams played here in Week 16 and the Giants came storming back only to fall 27-24 to the Vikes. That's been the story all year for this Vikings squad who are 11-0 in one score games this season. However, I think Brian Daboll and the Giants will relish playing the underdog role and Saquon Barkley could be the difference maker -- he had 133 scrimmage yards and a score in Week 16. Pick: Giants, 24-23.


Line: Vikings -3

ML: Giants

Spread: Giants


Baltimore Ravens (10-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)


The storyline all week has been around Lamar Jackson and if he would be healthy enough to play in this game -- he's not. That leaves Tyler Huntley, who got a full practice in on Friday, to take the field against the red hot Bengals. Despite John Harbaugh being able to get some stellar play out of his defense, I can't see the Ravens hanging around for too long in this game. In five games against the Ravens in his career, Joe Burrow has thrown 9 TD, 3 INT and has a 67.02 CMP%; I think he rolls on Sunday. Pick: Bengals, 23-13.


Line: Bengals -8.5

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals


Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)


This is an intriguing matchup as these two teams are about to meet for the third time in the last two seasons -- Tom Brady got the better of the Cowboys in Week 1 and is 7-0 lifetime against them. This Cowboys team struggled to a 1-4 record on grass this year and down the stretch, Dak Prescott has forced too many throws that have resulted in turnovers. If they can get back to running the football with consistency and Micah Parsons can put the pressure on Brady, then the Cowboys should come out of Tampa with a victory. Pick: Cowboys, 21-20.


Line: Cowboys -2.5

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Buccaneers


Results


Week 18


ML: 10-6

ATS: 7-8-1


Overall


ML: 178-93

ATS: 141-121-9

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