It's playoff time! We kick things off with Wild Card weekend and some intriguing matchups right out of the gate. It's rare that a 14-win team settles for a road game in the first round of the playoffs, but that's exactly what the Vikings will be facing this weekend. I think there could be some surprises to start the playoffs, so let's dive into the Wild Card picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Jan. 11)
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7)
You can feel the change in Los Angeles since the arrival of Jim Harbaugh. All the disappointing playoff exits before him and the same old story with the Chargers seems thrown out the window. The Chargers surrendered a league best 17.7 Pts/G and just 206.9 PYds/G (7th) this season (the Texans own the 6th-best at just 201 PYds/G) and this could be a bad recipe for C.J. Stroud, who has looked underwhelming compared to his rookie year. I like Harbaugh and company to draw this game out on the ground and I'll lean towards the under 42 on the game total. Pick: Chargers, 20-17.
Line: Chargers -2.5
ML: Chargers
Spread: Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
This line is fairly inflated for an AFC North clash that features plenty of history between these two coaches and teams. I do think to this point in the season, the Ravens and Steelers are heading in opposite directions and that's likely due in large part to the grueling schedule that Mike Tomlin's team endured, making the 10-win mark a solid feat in itself. The Ravens have the potential MVP under center and a an absolute bull at running back in Derrick Henry and I like what I've seen from this Ravens defense in the second half of the season. I'm not sure a double-digit win is in order here, but I do like the Ravens to control this game and move onto the divisional round next week. Pick: Ravens, 24-17.
Line: Ravens -9.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Steelers
Denver Broncos (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Despite a softer schedule, I'll give Sean Payton and the Broncos credit for making the playoffs in a tough AFC West division this year. The future seems bright in Denver with Bo Nix, but his time isn't now and I don't expect any Wild Card miracles on the road here with the MVP-caliber season we've seen from Josh Allen. The story of these playoffs for the Bills will be how well their defense can hold up and it won't be a problem in this game, but at some point they're going to need a few critical stops to give Allen a chance to win a ball game. Pick: Bills, 33-17.
Line: Bills -8.5
ML: Bills
Spread: Bills
Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
On paper, the Eagles are the better team here, but Matt LaFleur seems to get the most out of his teams come playoff time and this is a scrappy Packers squad. The Pack are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of three or more points and they have enough offensive weapons to hang around in this game. The key ingredient for the Eagles will be Saquon Barkley's involvement throughout the game. He averaged 125.3 RYds/G and found the end zone a total of 15 times -- he is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense. Pick: Eagles, 26-23.
Line: Eagles -5
ML: Eagles
Spread: Packers
Washington Commanders (12-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
It's been a storybook season for Baker Mayfield, setting career-highs in passing yards (4,500) and touchdowns (41) on the way to a second straight NFC South division title. I think it's easy to root for Baker considering the ups and downs of his NFL journey and this is going to be an exciting game offensively with rookie Jayden Daniels making his playoff debut. There have been several games where the Commanders felt down and out this season, but Daniels pulled off some late game heroics and the rookie seems to be unphased in these big moments. This has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the weekend, and I think Dan Quinn's squad wins it late. Pick: Commanders, 30-28.
Line: Buccaneers -3
ML: Commanders
Spread: Commanders
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
As much as Mayfield's story has been incredible this year, Sam Darnold has been turning heads in Minnesota and earning the respect of his peers. The journeyman QB is due for a new contract in the offseason, but he has some business to take care of in the playoffs first. Both these QB's can sling it, with Matthew Stafford on the opposing sideline, and with the game being moved to a neutral site in Arizona, I like the Vikings even more. I don't think this young Rams secondary will have an answer for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and it feels like it's Darnold's time to prove something more. Pick: Vikings, 27-23.
Line: Vikings -2.5
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Results
Week 18
ML: 11-5
ATS: 7-9
Overall
ML: 185-87 (68.0%)
ATS: 142-126-4 (52.2%)
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