We've finally reached the playoffs following a thrilling Week 18 that saw the Bills come back to beat the Dolphins steal the AFC East crown. Heading into December, if you would have told me the Jaguars would miss the playoffs, I would've laughed it off and here we are after a Titans upset. Some key wild card weekend matchups are on the way, so let's dive into the game picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Jan. 13)
Cleveland Browns (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7)
The story coming into this game is all about the old guard against the new guard as Joe Flacco has all of the playoff experience, including a Super Bowl win over the Niners. Flacco is 5-0 on wild card weekend in his career and will try to lean on that experience to ruin C.J. Stroud's playoff debut. They say when you're in doubt, back the defense, and that's what I will do here as I think the Browns win a tight one. Pick: Browns, 23-20.
Line: Browns -2.5
ML: Browns
Spread: Browns
Miami Dolphins (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
The Dolphins let the AFC East slip from their grasp down the stretch and will now have to make a tough road trip to Arrowhead in some frigid temperatures. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-10 in games under 40 degrees and the biggest concern here is that the Dolphins are not healthy on the defensive side of the ball. It hasn't been pretty for Patrick Mahomes and the offense this year, but I think they can lean on Isiah Pacheco out of the backfield to grind out a home playoff win here. Pick: Chiefs, 24-17.
Line: Chiefs -5
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Green Bay Packers (9-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
The Cowboys caught a break with the Eagles' struggles down the stretch and now find themselves with home field advantage on opening weekend. We know the script, the Cowboys are 8-0 at home this year and have won 15 straight there, so the Packers are in a tough spot. I will say the Packers' defense has been much improved in the second half of the season and won't be a push over for Dak Prescott and co. I think Dan Quinn's crew steps up late to force a turnover and ice the game in the 4th quarter. Pick: Cowboys, 27-19.
Line: Cowboys -7
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) @ Detroit Lions (12-5)
The Rams were the hottest team to close out the season in the NFC, winning 7 of their last 8 games coming out of the Week 10 bye week (there only loss on the road in overtime to the Ravens). This game has all the makings, including Matthew Stafford's return to Detroit where he was drafted, plus Jared Goff looking for revenge on his former team and coach Sean McVay. I think this has the potential to be the biggest shootout of the weekend, and I'm not particularly impressed with the Lions' defense as they've been vulnerable in the passing game this year. Pick: Rams, 30-27.
Line: Lions -3
ML: Rams
Spread: Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6)
The inclement weather in Erie County has forced this game to be moved to Monday afternoon, which could now favor the Bills after it was expected that the snow and wind would be a huge factor in the passing game. It's likely we still get that classic chilly air for a Buffalo playoff game, but Josh Allen should be able to utilize that arm strength even better. Mike Tomlin is a master at motivating his team and although T.J. Watt will be out of the lineup, I think the Steelers will be chippy to play against here. Pick: Bills, 24-13.
Line: Bills -10
ML: Bills
Spread: Bills
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Something just doesn't feel right with the Eagles right now and they are not even close to being the team that made it to the Super Bowl last year. I know there is plenty of veteran experience on this roster, but I would've thought this team would get out of the gutter by now and instead they finished the season 1-5. Additionally, they will be without A.J. Brown in this game and with the injury to Jalen Hurt's finger, the passing game could struggle even more. Baker Mayfield may have revived his career this season as nobody had the Bucs as division champs. Here he is with an opportunity to knock off a veteran-laden squad, much like he did a few years back with Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Pick: Buccaneers, 20-17.
Line: Eagles -3
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
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