It's officially playoff time in the NFL and this weekend is loaded with games (even a Monday night matchup, which is a first). Joe Burrow, Mac Jones and Jalen Hurts will be making their playoff debuts and there are two division rival matchups that will feature plenty of animosity in Buffalo and Los Angeles. Let's dive into this weekend's wild card picks.
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Saturday)
Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
The Bengals are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2015 (they also won the AFC North crown that year) and will be looking to upend a resilient Raiders team that fought through many challenges this season from Jon Gruden's firing to multiple incidents of misconduct off the field. The Bengals are the better team on paper, however, history is not necessarily on their side here entering this game as the "Cardiac Cats" are 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in the wild card round since 2000. "Joey Franchise" carries a different aura in the huddle, but I like the Raiders to keep this close as they've hung around and proven to be a tough matchup this season. Pick: Bengals, 27-23.
Line: Bengals -5.5
Spread: Raiders
ML: Bengals
New England Patriots (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6)
If you recall this same matchup in Buffalo back in early December, the conditions were extremely windy and Bill Belichick leaned heavily on the run game to come away with a victory on the road. This time around, the weather won't play a factor and Josh Allen should be able to let it rip through the air. The interesting part about this matchup is that both of these teams defend the pass very well, in fact, they are the two best teams at doing so (Bills - 163 PYDS/G and Pats - 187.1 PYDS/G). Belichick will need to use some disguised blitzes and create pressure where he can on Allen and that is going to be tough to do as we've seen the Bills integrate a sixth offensive lineman in some of their play calls to generate a stronger rushing attack. Mac Jones seems pretty unfazed for a rookie in the pocket, but I think the Bills will be too much this weekend in his playoff debut. Pick: Bills, 24-17.
Line: Bills -4.5
Spread: Bills
ML: Bills
Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
I'm not sure we've seen great football from the defending champs down the stretch here, despite finishing with a 13-4 record, and who could blame them? Chris Godwin was lost for the season, the backfield took some hits with the Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard injuries, and Antonio Brown opened up a can of worms again with his infamous exit in New York a couple weeks ago. The Eagles rested virtually everybody in the season finale against the Cowboys, so they will be well rested. Something to keep an eye on will be the weather as it's currently calling for rain throughout most of the game and the Bucs already ruled out Ronald Jones for this game, while Fournette is deemed a game-time decision. Sloppy conditions that could affect the passing game and favor the QB with plenty of mobility? I like the Eagles to keep this close. Pick: Buccaneers, 23-16.
Line: Buccaneers -8.5
Spread: Eagles
ML: Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers (10-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
This should be a great matchup in 'Big D' as this matchup features two of the best offenses and defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys lead the league in YDS/G (407.0) and PTS/G (31.2), while the 49ers have allowed just 21.5 PTS/G (T-9th), 103.5 RYDS/G (7th) and 206.5 PYDS/G (6th). The Cowboys were 5-3 at home this season and in those games Dak Prescott averaged 273.4 PYDS/G, racked up a 23:2 TD:INT ratio and finished with a 67.2 CMP%. It would also appear that the Cowboys will get two of their big horses on both sides of the ball back for this game with Tony Pollard and Micah Parsons returning. The key to success for the Niners will be running the football, as they averaged 127.4 RYDS/G (7th) this season. Pick: Cowboys, 24-20.
Line: Cowboys -3
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
This is the most lopsided spread on paper this weekend (and for good reason) as the Steelers limped into the playoffs and now have a tough road matchup against a high-flying Chiefs team. Ben Roethlisberger tried playing some mind games in the media this week alluding to the fact that the Steelers have no chance of winning this game and should just go out and have fun. A little bit coy from the crafty veteran who is trying to use some psychological warfare to motivate his team. For the Chiefs, they will have Darrel Williams and Tyreek Hill available for this game, which will be a boost to an already loaded offense. This is a rematch from a few weeks ago in which the Chiefs absolutely blew out the Steelers at Arrowhead and while I can't see history repeating itself, the Chiefs should win comfortably here. Pick: Chiefs, 28-17.
Line: Chiefs -12.5
Spread: Steelers
ML: Chiefs
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) @ L.A. Rams (12-5)
This is the unique Monday night game that pits two division rivals against one another in what will be a rubber match from the regular season. Sean McVay has absolutely owned the Cardinals since taking over as the Rams head coach in 2017, to the tune of a 9-1 record. On the other sideline, Kliff Kingsbury is just 1-5 against the Rams during his tenure. Kyler Murray certainly has the ability to make life difficult for opposing defenses, but I would feel more confident in this Cards team if DeAndre Hopkins were able to play. Despite some ugly play from Matthew Stafford over the last few weeks, I think this Rams defense will step up and lead this team to a crucial home win. Pick: Rams, 23-20.
Line: Rams -4
Spread: Cardinals
ML: Rams
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