**All betting lines are from bet365.com**
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Buffalo Bills (13-3)
The Bills are hosting a playoff game for the first time in 24 years, coincidentally, that's the last time they also won in the playoffs too. Josh Allen certainly elevated his game this year, changing his throwing mechanics and shedding the narrative that he can't make the big throws in crunch time. Allen finished the regular season with 4,544 PYDS (5th), 37 TD (5th) and a 69.2 CMP% (4th); normally this would put him on people's MVP ballot, but Aaron Rodgers had other ideas.
The Colts come into this game with both a Top-10 offense and defense in terms of points per game. The heartbeat of this offense is in their rookie RB Jonathan Taylor, who after a slow start to the year, turned it on in the second half to finish with 1,169 RYDS (3rd), 11 TD (T-7th) and 232 attempts (8th). If the Colts want to win this game, they will likely have to force Allen into a couple of turnovers, something he has really improved on with just 10 INT this year. The Bills get the luxury of playing in front of roughly 7,000 fans today -- something they were not able to do during the regular season -- and it might be just the encouragement they need to slay that playoff beast. Bills, 27-21.
Line: Bills -6.5
Spread: Colts +6.5
ML: Bills
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) @ Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
This might be the most intriguing game of the day because Sean McVay will not reveal his starting QB until closer to game-time. Jared Goff underwent surgery on the thumb in his throwing hand, so it could be John Wolford who gets the call after a win over the Arizona Cardinals to solidify their playoff spot last week. At this point, is Wolford that much of a downgrade from Goff? Maybe not. In the five games prior to his injury, Goff had a 78.7 passer rating and threw only four touchdowns compared to five interceptions -- these numbers don't exactly instill any confidence.
On the flip side, Russell Wilson has fallen off in the second half of the season and it seems that Pete Carroll has focused more on establishing the run game (which is fair, considering Chris Carson is one of the best in the league). It's a tough matchup for Wilson and the offense considering the Rams have won five of the last eight meetings between these two teams and their defense surrendered a league best 18.5 Pts/G this season. The Seahawks have played some great defense of their own lately, allowing a league-low 14 Pts/G since Week 12. Whatever the result, it's sure to be one of the lower scoring games of the weekend as these teams meet for the third time this year. Seahawks, 20-16.
Line: Seahawks -3
Spread: Seahawks -3
ML: Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) @ Washington Football Team (7-9)
The story of this game is the 43-year-old ageless wonder Tom Brady going toe-to-toe with defensive rising star Chase Young. Young called out Brady earlier in the week, saying he was coming after him (hopefully he doesn't eat his own words) and the veteran QB will have to be mindful of this defensive pass rush. Montez Sweat and Young combined for 16.5 sacks this season and could wreak havoc on Brady in the backfield.
Offensively, I can't see Alex Smith being able to keep up with Brady in the passing game. The Bucs have way too many weapons (even if Mike Evans doesn't play), averaging 289.1 PYDS/G (2nd) compared to the Football Team's 216.6 PYDS/G (25th). It will be up to Washington's defense to keep them hanging around in this game, which they have the personnel to do, but to come away with the win they will need to create some turnovers and turn those into short field situations. Bucs, 24-14.
Line: Bucs -8
Spread: Bucs -8
ML: Bucs
Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Tennessee Titans (11-5)
The Ravens are riding a five-game winning streak into this wild card clash against a Titans team that trumped them 30-24 in overtime back in Week 11. This is also a rematch of last year's divisional round matchup in which the Titans cruised to a 28-12 victory over the Ravens. Lamar Jackson had video game type numbers, putting up 508 total yards, but the difference in that game was the Titans forcing him into three turnovers. If Jackson can protect the ball this time around, it could be a very different result for the Ravens.
On the other sideline, nobody has been hotter than Derrick Henry, who eclipsed the 2,000 yard mark on the ground this season. He is the heartbeat of this offensive attack and will go up against the 8th-ranked defense against the run this season. So far, nobody has been able to slow Henry down -- he racked up over 1,000 yards, averaging 6.1 YPC and scored nine touchdowns in his last seven games. The Ravens have a strong rushing attack themselves, leading the NFL with 191.9 RYDS/G (the Titans rank second with 168.1) and this sets up as an opportunity for Lamar and Co. to slice and dice through a weak Titans defensive unit. Ravens, 30-27.
Line: Ravens -3.5
Spread: Titans +3.5
ML: Ravens
Chicago Bears (8-8) @ New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Earlier in the week I looked at this game and thought the spread was very high. Are the Saints a better football team than the Bears? No question. But, what stood out to me was the fact that Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas were uncertain to play in this game and the Bears are no slouch on defense, ranking 11th in total defense on the year. What drives this line up to double digits is the fact that we have playoff pedigree from Drew Brees going up against the unpredictability of Mitchell Trubisky.
Sure, Trubisky has been solid in his last four games (winning three of them), while averaging 246.5 PYDS/G with a 6:3 TD:INT ratio, but those three wins came against the Texans, Vikings and Jaguars -- all of which ranked in the bottom eight in the NFL in total defense. Now, he will be without Darnell Mooney (ankle) in this wild card matchup and the Bears have already ruled out Buster Skrine in the secondary, plus Jaylon Johnson (shoulder) and Roquan Smith (elbow) are questionable and neither practiced throughout the week. Too many obstacles for the Bears to overcome and keep this tight, plus we might see Nick Foles at some point. Saints, 31-17.
Line: Saints -10.5
Spread: Saints -10.5
ML: Saints
Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
What a story book ending to the regular season for the Browns, who snapped an 18-year playoff drought beating these same Steelers in Week 17. The difference in that game however, was that Mike Tomlin elected to rest Ben Roethlisberger in favor of Mason Rudolph. The Steelers virtually started all of their offensive regulars and the Browns narrowly came away with a 24-22 victory. This concerns me. On top of this, Kevin Stefanski is unable to coach in this game due to Covid-19 protocols and the team will be without starting left guard Joel Bitonio for the same reason and at right guard, Wyatt Teller (calf) is questionable. This could be detrimental to the Browns establishing the run against an already tough Steelers defensive front.
Roethlisberger will be at full health in this one and have his full arsenal of receiving weapons on the field Sunday night. One player to watch in this game is rookie Chase Claypool, who averaged 4.5 catches, 87.5 receiving yards and added two scores in both matchups with the Browns this year. Without Stefanski running the play calls, I find this to be very tough luck for the Browns, especially Baker Mayfield. I think the Steelers and their playoff experience shine through here. Steelers, 24-17.
Line: Steelers -5.5
Spread: Steelers -5.5
ML: Steelers
Week 17 Results
Spread: 8-7-1
ML: 11-5
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