We're nearly halfway through the season and there have been some crazy storylines in the NFL, with the Jets' collapse being at the forefront. From a betting perspective, it has been the year of the underdog. Heading into Week 9, underdogs of 5.5+ points are 24-16-1 with 15 outright wins this season -- the Ravens, Bills, Saints, Bengals, Eagles, Vikings and Chiefs are heavy favorites this week. Let's dive into the Week 9 game picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 2)
Houston Texans (6-2) @ New York Jets (2-6)
The Jets' season is on life support and they have been an utter disappointment with one of the softest schedules in the NFL this year. This really feels like the Jets season on Thursday night and I have to imagine Davante Adams will get plenty of looks. If there was ever a time for their defense to step up, it would be against a Texans team that will be missing their star wideouts, Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Pick: Jets, 24-17.
Line: Jets -2
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Dallas Cowboys (3-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
The Cowboys have too many injuries to overcome to remain competitive in the NFC East and deep down I think that's why Jerry Jones is remaining as stagnant at the deadline as he did in free agency. This feels like a win or the season is done scenario for Dallas and after Sunday, they'll be out of the wildcard race. Pick: Falcons, 24-16.
Line: Falcons -3
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
Denver Broncos (5-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
The Ravens were sloppy last week and that cost them the game in Cleveland, particularly a deep pass that Rashod Bateman whiffed on after it hit him square in the chest. That's not typical John Harbaugh football and I would expect it gets corrected this week. Pick: Ravens, 26-19.
Line: Ravens -9.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Broncos
Miami Dolphins (2-5) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Tua Tagovailoa made his return to the Dolphins lineup last week -- stop me if you've heard that before -- and it seemed to light a spark under the offense. This is a tough game to pick as the Bills haven't looked great defensively this year, but I'm going to lean on the home field advantage here. Pick: Bills, 27-20.
Line: Bills -6.5
ML: Bills
Spread: Bills
New Orleans Saints (2-6) @ Carolina Panthers (1-7)
What started out as a promising season after starting 2-0, has quickly gone off the rails for the Saints who are losers of six straight. They should get a bump with Derek Carr back under center, but this could be a grind of a game in Carolina and I'm not anticipating much offense on either side of the ball. Pick: Saints, 19-13.
Line: Saints -7
ML: Saints
Spread: Panthers
Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
The Bengals got whooped at home last week by the Eagles. Just when we thought they had turned a corner and were ready to make a run towards a playoff spot, they went smack straight into a wall. The Raiders are headed for a Top 5 pick next year and Joe Burrow should be able to carve up this secondary to get this team back in the win column. Pick: Bengals, 30-20.
Line: Bengals -7
ML: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) @ Cleveland Browns (2-6)
The Browns rose to the occasion last week, stealing one from the rival Ravens and will look to win back-to-back games at home with Jameis Winston at the helm. This feels like a defensive slugfest as Jim Harbaugh likes to lean on his ground game and it should be a good matchup with this Browns front seven, led by Myles Garrett. Pick: Browns, 19-16.
Line: Chargers -1
ML: Browns
Spread: Browns
Washington Commanders (6-2) @ New York Giants (2-6)
The Commanders really feel like a destination team for many veterans wanting to move at the deadline, and Jayden Daniels' gritty win last week is a testament to that. I don't think he's completely healthy yet, and we've seen the Giants hang around in some games despite their 2-6 record, so I'll lean towards a field goal game here. Pick: Commanders, 20-17.
Line: Commanders -4
ML: Commanders
Spread: Giants
New England Patriots (2-6) @ Tennessee Titans (1-6)
The loser of this game could have the inside shot at the top pick in next year's draft. Despite their records, both of these teams have some tough defenses and I would imagine points will be at a premium here. Pick: Titans, 16-13.
Line: Titans -3
ML: Titans
Spread: Patriots
Chicago Bears (4-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
The Bears were virtually invisible for three quarters last week in Washington before they stormed back to take a late 4th quarter lead. Ultimately, they lost on a botched Hail Mary play and they'll have to forget it quick as that's the type of play that can define your season. Pick: Bears, 24-21.
Line: Cardinals -1
ML: Bears
Spread: Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
The Jags made it close last week, losing on a game-winning kick to the Packers. Now, they'll look to salvage some revenge for Doug Pederson against his former team. The Eagles are far and away the better team here and just need to focus on the run game to keep the Jags at bay. Pick: Eagles, 30-21.
Line: Eagles -7.5
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Detroit Lions (6-1) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2)
There were questions about whether or not Jordan Love would be able to go in this game after a groin injury that forced him out last week. All signs point to him playing through it, but I still don't think that will be enough against a stout Lions team looking to keep the NFC North lead. Pick: Lions, 27-20.
Line: Lions -2.5
ML: Lions
Spread: Lions
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
The Seahawks will be without DK Metcalf again this week, so I would anticipate a heavy dose of the run once again for this offense. The Rams will certainly benefit from the additional rest days after playing last Thursday, especially since Puka Nacua had an injury scare in practice. I think Sean McVay's team is going to make a wildcard push from here on out. Pick: Rams, 24-17.
Line: Rams -1.5
ML: Rams
Spread: Rams
Indianapolis Colts (4-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
This game was flexed to the Sunday night spot, and that should suit Joe Flacco just fine as he is no stranger to prime time games. Flacco has thrown for 300 yards in five of his last seven games and I think it's the right call with Anthony Richardson struggling out of the gate. Look for Brian Flores to be aggressive, drawing up some more blitzes in an effort to not let the veteran find his rhythm. Pick: Vikings, 24-20.
Line: Vikings -5.5
ML: Vikings
Spread: Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
The Bucs are in tough against this Steve Spagnuolo defense without their top two targets in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. It really feels like the Chiefs have yet to play their best football and that's scary considering they're the lone undefeated team left this season. Pick: Chiefs, 26-15.
Line: Chiefs -9
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Results
Week 8
ML: 11-5
ATS: 9-7
Overall
ML: 79-44
ATS: 63-58-2
Comments