What was the biggest thing we learned from Week 7? I'd say it's that the Cincinnati Bengals are for real, folks. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase stormed into Baltimore and beat the Ravens...decisively. The Bengals now sit at 5-2 atop the AFC North and are now being talked about as a legit contender. And, on deck we have a huge Thursday night matchup that features two QB's in the MVP conversation. Let's dive into this week's slate of games.
**All betting lines from bet365.com (updated Sunday)**
Green Bay Packers (6-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-0)
On paper, this game has huge NFC playoff implications as both of these teams are vying for home field advantage at this point in the season. However, it looks like the Packers could be without some important pieces on offense as both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard have been added to the Covid-19 protocol list. What does that mean for Aaron Rodgers? Well, Matt LaFleur might be forced to lean heavily on the combination of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to move the chains. We know Kyler Murray is going to have a game here and it's a matter of whether or not the Packers came keep up offensively without those key pieces. I'm inclined to give the Cards their first loss here, but we'll have to keep an eye on the injury report leading into the game. Pick: Cardinals, 31-23.
Line: Cardinals -6.5
Spread: Cardinals
ML: Cardinals
Carolina Panthers (3-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
The Panthers haven't just fallen from grace, they have completely nosedived off a cliff, now on a four-game losing streak. Sam Darnold has really regressed over the last couple weeks to the point where rumors swirled that the team might be in on a Deshaun Watson trade. At any rate, missing Christian McCaffrey in their lineup hurts...bad. Next up is a trip to Atlanta where they face a Falcons team that has played well offensively as of late. Matt Ryan is in a groove, throwing 10 TD's with 1 INT in his last four games. I just can't trust Darnold right now as he's looking more and more like the Jets QB we dreaded. Pick: Falcons, 24-20.
Line: Falcons -2.5
Spread: Falcons
ML: Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) @ N.Y. Jets (1-5)
I mentioned it in the start of this article, but the Bengals are the media darlings of the NFL right now sitting at 5-2 atop the AFC North. Who saw that coming? Zac Taylor has a Top 10 team in PTS/G on both sides of the ball and this is very much a playoff contender right now. As for the Jets, I think we're about to see some continued beatdowns on the schedule here especially since Zach Wilson will miss some time. Mike White will get the start this Sunday and I don't anticipate it will be pretty. Pick: Bengals, 27-14.
Line: Bengals -11.5
Spread: Bengals
ML: Bengals
L.A. Rams (6-1) @ Houston Texans (1-6)
The Rams look strong right now despite a test from the pesky Lions last week (I'm sure Jared Goff was a bit motivated for that game). At 6-1, they're chasing that top seed in the NFC and continue to be in the conversation each week as one of the best teams in the league. Matthew Stafford looks more and more comfortable each week and the defense is once again thriving. This is going to be a long day for the Texans. Pick: Rams, 30-13.
Line: Rams -16.5
Spread: Rams
ML: Rams
Miami Dolphins (1-6) @ Buffalo Bills (4-2)
The Dolphins look all sorts of lost on the field this year and really, this was a surprise to me for a team that finished 10-6 last year and I thought they would be in the wildcard conversation again. The biggest disappointment has been the defense, it took a significant step back this year and Brian Flores can't be happy about that. As for the Bills, they had a full week of rest after being stunned on the road by the Titans. I would expect Josh Allen to come out slinging here as he's owned the Dolphins -- 6-1 lifetime with 19 TD and 5 INT -- and this defense will be motivated for this one. Pick: Bills, 31-17.
Line: Bills -15
Spread: Dolphins
ML: Bills
Philadelphia Eagles (2-5) @ Detroit Lions (0-7)
he Lions have played some tough games this year and came out on the short end of the stick. Now, this might be their best opportunity to erase that zero in the win column as the Eagles come to town. There was some promise last week, as Goff elevated his game after being called out by Dan Campbell and now he will have the chance to out shine Jalen Hurts. Look for Kenneth Gainwell to get plenty of touches in this game with Miles Sanders unlikely to play, but then again the Eagles might abandon the run yet again. Pick: Eagles, 27-23.
Line: Eagles -3
Spread: Eagles
ML: Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) @ Cleveland Browns (4-3)
This is a big game in the AFC North as the Browns need to keep pace with the Bengals and Ravens. Somehow, amidst the injury bug, they came away with a win over the Broncos on Thursday night. This time, it could be Baker Mayfield back under center and Nick Chubb may also be able to take the field. The timing couldn't be better if both of those players are available on offense as the Steelers will be well rested coming off a bye. This has the makings of a defensive struggle and I just wonder how healthy the Browns really are right now? Pick: Steelers, 23-20.
Line: Browns -5
Spread: Steelers
ML: Steelers
San Francisco 49ers (2-4) @ Chicago Bears (3-4)
I don't think many people expected the 49ers to be struggling this much right now and Kyle Shanahan looked extremely flabbergasted at the podium following Sunday night's loss. Will it be Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance under center this week? It's a mystery, but Shanahan said Garoppolo should be good to go if needed. The Bears got smoked by the Bucs last week and I think we're all still waiting for Matt Nagy to really open up his playbook for Justin Fields (now would be a good time). Pick: 49ers, 23-17.
Line: 49ers -4.5
Spread: 49ers
ML: 49ers
Tennessee Titans (5-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
The Titans are rolling after back-to-back wins over the Bills and Chiefs (that's certainly a statement to the rest of the AFC), but this is their biggest game yet. It's a chance to take a real stranglehold on the division lead if they can take care of business against the Colts. The biggest question in this game will be if Carson Wentz can string together back-to-back performances and take advantage of the Titans' defensive inefficiencies? This seems like the Colts' Super Bowl this week as it's an absolute must win, so I'll lean with the home side. Pick: Colts, 28-24.
Line: Colts -3
Spread: Colts
ML: Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
After a gritty defensive performance, the Seahawks will look to bounce back this week at home to the Jags. I think the key to this game will be how efficient the Seahawks can run the ball, still without Chris Carson in the lineup. Trevor Lawrence will make his first start in front of the 12th man and I would suspect there will be some rookie jitters that come with it. I think Pete Carroll can get a strong defensive effort from his team again. Pick: Seahawks, 23-16.
Line: Seahawks -4
Spread: Seahawks
ML: Seahawks
New England Patriots (3-4) @ L.A. Chargers (4-2)
When these two teams met last year, Bill Belichick's defense absolutely dominated Justin Herbert to the tune of a 45-0 win. I'm guessing Herbert remembers that beatdown well and will be out there for some redemption against the Pats this week. The offense is fully healthy and I think they will be able to move the ball on this Pats defense with relative ease. Can Mac Jones put together another big time performance like he did last week against the Cowboys? Pick: Chargers, 27-20.
Line: Chargers -4
Spread: Chargers
ML: Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) @ New Orleans Saints (4-2)
The Bucs are rolling and chasing that top seed in the NFC and Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time. This is a tricky matchup for Brady and the Bucs as the Saints have forced 10 turnovers (8th in NFL) so far this year. It's seldom Brady is forced into mistakes, but this offensive line could maintain the pressure to do so. For Jameis Winston, it's redemption week and what a spot this is for him to get the better of his former team. I like Alvin Kamara being the focal point of the offensive game plan here, especially in the passing game, but I don't think the Saints can score with the Bucs. Pick: Buccaneers, 28-21.
Line: Buccaneers -4
Spread: Buccaneers
ML: Buccaneers
Washington Football Team (2-5) @ Denver Broncos (3-4)
This is an ugly game, there's no other way to paint this matchup. Washington has had defensive struggles all year and the Broncos can't seem to move the ball with any consistency on offense. The key to this game will be at the line of scrimmage and which team runs the ball better, that should favor the Broncos with both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams healthy. Antonio Gibson continues to battle through a shin injury and will be someone to watch throughout the practice week. Pick: Broncos, 21-16.
Line: Broncos -4
Spread: Broncos
ML: Broncos
Dallas Cowboys (5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-3)
This will be a great game on Sunday night and has the potential for some offensive fireworks on both sides. The Vikings are better than their record indicates and are hanging around the NFC playoff picture. The key matchup will be Trevon Diggs and Justin Jefferson, that's what I'm intrigued to watch anyway. Plenty of offensive weapons available here and it will be a matter of which defense bends, but doesn't break. Pick: Cowboys, 31-24.
Line: Vikings -2.5
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
N.Y. Giants (2-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)
What in the world is going on with the Chiefs right now? Their defense has been non-existent all year, but last week Patrick Mahomes and the offense looked like a group from a completely different dimension. This is very much a team that is far from the elite level we're used to seeing them play at. The Giants on the other hand picked up a big win at home over the Panthers (Daniel Jones might have the catch of the year too) and could give the Chiefs fits here. This is really the last straw for this Chiefs team and I have to think Andy Reid has them motivated to play their best game of the year. Pick: Chiefs, 31-20.
Line: Chiefs -10
Spread: Chiefs
ML: Chiefs
2021 Results
Week 7
ATS: 6-6-1
ML: 7-6
Overall
ATS: 61-44-2
ML: 66-41
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