**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 20)
Denver Broncos (3-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-4)
Sean Payton makes his return to the "Big Easy" and this is a pivotal game for both sides. The Broncos are running a structured offense with rookie Bo Nix, and are in the mix in the AFC playoff conversations, while the Saints desperately need a win to stop a four-game skid. Pick: Broncos, 24-17.
Line: Broncos -3
ML: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
New England Patriots (1-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)
The Jags were absolutely flat last week against the Bears, but perhaps the two week layover in England will help their chances this week? I can't believe I'm sticking with them as this team has played completely uninspired under Doug Pederson the entire year. Pick: Jaguars, 23-16.
Line: Jaguars -6
ML: Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars
Seattle Seahawks (3-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
The Falcons have found their groove offensively and Kirk Cousins is looking more and more comfortable in the pocket each week working his way back from an Achilles' injury. With some extra prep heading into the week, the Seahawks should be ready to play here, but I can't help but think the Falcons' defense stuffs the run here, which is the Seahawks' identity. Pick: Falcons, 26-24.
Line: Falcons -3
ML: Falcons
Spread: Seahawks
Tennessee Titans (1-4) @ Buffalo Bills (4-2)
The Titans will role with Mason Rudolph this week as Will Levis is unable to go with his sprained shoulder. The lone bright spot has been their defense and I think they can do enough to keep them in this game on the road. With the addition of Amari Cooper, we'll see if that opens up the passing game for the Bills. Pick: Bills, 24-16.
Line: Bills -9.5
ML: Bills
Spread: Titans
Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) @ Cleveland Browns (1-5)
The "Battle of Ohio" features two teams at the bottom of the AFC North, but it certainly feels like the Bengals are gaining some momentum and a win this week would vault them back into contention. Look for Joe Burrow to continue his hot hand and this Bengals defense should be able to take care of Deshaun Watson's poor play of late. Pick: Bengals, 23-15.
Line: Bengals -5.5
ML: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Houston Texans (5-1) @ Green Bay Packers (4-2)
This has the potential to be the game of the week at Lambeau Field and the key for the Packers will be slowing down C.J. Stroud. The Packers really need to get Josh Jacobs more involved and spread this offense out a little bit to beat an aggressive Texans defense. Pick: Packers, 24-20.
Line: Packers -3
ML: Packers
Spread: Packers
Miami Dolphins (2-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
The Colts decided to go back to Anthony Richardson this week instead of riding the hot hand of Joe Flacco. We'll see if the decision pays off by Shane Steichen, but the extra rest for Richardson may have been warranted. Without Jonathan Taylor, the Colts continue to have a shred of a running game and to me Flacco is the better passer. Pick: Colts, 17-16.
Line: Colts -3
ML: Colts
Spread: Dolphins
Detroit Lions (4-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-0)
This is a huge battle in the NFC North and the Vikings come into this game with 14 days of rest, looking to stay undefeated. The Lions made a statement last week, walking through the Cowboys and they need to bring the same intensity in front of a raucous Minnesota crowd. Look for the Lions' two-headed monster in the backfield to take this game over. Pick: Lions, 23-20.
Line: Vikings -1
ML: Lions
Spread: Lions
Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) @ New York Giants (2-4)
The Eagles look lethargic on offense with too many slow starts. That's not the type of championship football they preach and it will need to get sorted out quickly if this team wants to be taken seriously in the NFC. This offense needs to lean on Saquon Barkley, that's the recipe to success. Pick: Eagles, 23-13.
Line: Eagles -3
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-4)
It certainly feels like the Raiders are a team headed for a Top 5 pick and now they have dealt star receiver Davante Adams to the Jets. We know that Maxx Crosby is disgruntled and this should be an interesting lead up to the trade deadline. I would expect Sean McVay to lean heavily on the run here this week and if Cooper Kupp plays, it will certainly provide a much needed boost to the offense. Pick: Rams, 27-17.
Line: Rams -7
ML: Rams
Spread: Rams
Carolina Panthers (1-5) @ Washington Commanders (4-2)
Jayden Daniels was impressive last week in a loss to the Ravens as he hung tough with Lamar Jackson and you can see he has a bright future in Washington. His ability to read concepts and bring that shiftiness in the pocket makes him a tough matchup for any defense. Expect a bounce back for Dan Quinn's team this week. Pick: Commanders, 26-16.
Line: Commanders -9.5
ML: Commanders
Spread: Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
A rematch of last year's Super Bowl and I'll bet Kyle Shanahan had this one circled on the calendar in training camp. One thing I've learned over the years is that you can't bet against Andy Reid coming out of a bye week and I'm not about to do it here. Despite the mismatch offensively, it's the Chiefs defense that has risen to the occasion all season long. Pick: Chiefs, 23-20.
Line: 49ers -1.5
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
New York Jets (2-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
The Jets made a splash this week picking up Davante Adams and it's now or never for a team that had high expectations heading into the season. In a peculiar move by Mike Tomlin, the Steelers will start Russell Wilson in place of Justin Fields -- a move that could prove costly in this game. Pick: Jets, 20-16.
Line: Jets -2
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Baltimore Ravens (4-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)
This is a big Monday night clash between two teams looking for an outright lead in each of their divisions. The Ravens have woken up and the run game might be the best in the NFL. It's a tough matchup against Todd Bowles' defense, but I can't see them slowing the Ravens down enough to win this game. Pick: Ravens, 27-20.
Line: Ravens -3.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
Jim Harbaugh has definitely changed the culture on this Chargers team and they are playing smashmouth football right now, which is exactly what he brought at Michigan. On the other sideline, the Cardinals really don't have an identity right now and the connection between Kyler Murray and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has been inconsistent early on. Pick: Chargers, 23-17.
Line: Chargers -2
ML: Chargers
Spread: Chargers
Results
Week 6
ML: 10-4
ATS: 6-8
Overall
ML: 56-36
ATS: 45-45-2
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