**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 10)
San Francisco 49ers (2-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
The 49ers have let two double-digit 4th quarter leads slip away over the last three weeks, resulting in divisional losses to the Rams and Cardinals. Very uncharacteristic of Kyle Shanahan's team and they will need a short-term memory to bounce back against the Seahawks with first place in the West on the line. I would expect the Seahawks to run the ball more often in this game, which could limit the chances of the Niners' dynamic offense. Pick: 49ers, 27-24.
Line: 49ers -3.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) @ Chicago Bears (3-2)
The Jags playing a game at Wembley Stadium has become second nature and often feels like a home game for them. We've seen the Bears find a rhythm on offense lately and Caleb Williams looks more and more comfortable in the pocket each week, but there are several injuries on the defensive side of the ball this week. If the Jags establish the run early, I think they sneak out of England with a win. Pick: Jaguars, 23-20.
Line: Bears -1.5
ML: Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars
Washington Commanders (4-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
This is a huge matchup featuring a pair of dynamic quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels has glistened in his rookie season to this point and will have a tough matchup against a veteran Ravens defense. I think Daniels gets a glimpse of that MVP-caliber play this week and Lamar Jackson shows up in a big spot. Pick: Ravens, 31-23.
Line: Ravens -6.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
Arizona Cardinals (2-3) @ Green Bay Packers (3-2)
We haven't seen a healthy Jordan Love since opening week and I think he's finally started to turn the corner. The Packers will need him to use some of that elusiveness in the pocket this week to push the play down field. Despite a comeback win against the Niners last week, there still seems to be a bit of a disconnect with Kyler Murray early in games, he'll need a better start this week. Pick: Packers, 26-23.
Line: Packers -5
ML: Packers
Spread: Cardinals
Houston Texans (4-1) @ New England Patriots (1-4)
The Pats will go with rookie Drake Maye this week and it feels a bit like they're feeding him to the wolves against the Texans here. There are some key injuries for the Texans as Nico Collins will be sidelined for a few weeks, opening up an opportunity for Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs to garner more targets. Texans are too much here and should overpower the Pats. Pick: Texans, 26-14.
Line: Texans -7
ML: Texans
Spread: Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) @ New Orleans Saints (2-3)
What a fall from grace for the Saints after starting the year 2-0 and now they will be without Derek Carr after he suffered an oblique injury last week. That means Spencer Rattler will make his NFL debut and you can guarantee Todd Bowles will love that, disguising some special zone blitzes for the rookie. Pick: Buccaneers, 26-16.
Line: Buccaneers -3.5
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns (1-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
The Eagles are coming off a much needed bye week considering this offense has sputtered through the first four games. The one outlier has been Saquon Barkley, who seems like a man on a mission this season. It should be a cupcake matchup for the Eagles with the Browns coming to town and Deshaun Watson looking lifeless in the pocket. Pick: Eagles, 27-14.
Line: Eagles -9.5
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Indianapolis Colts (2-3) @ Tennessee Titans (1-3)
The Titans badly needed that Week 4 win over the Dolphins and will now come out of their bye week in a big divisional spot against the Colts. I think the verdict is still out on Will Levis and we've seen Brian Callahan grow frustrated with his decision-making this season, but I think the week off should help them get organized here. Pick: Titans, 21-17.
Line: Titans -2.5
ML: Titans
Spread: Titans
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-2)
Sean Payton may have found something in rookie Bo Nix has he carries himself like a seasoned veteran in and out of the huddle. It's not really going to be flashy with Nix, but it's going to be consistent and that's something the Broncos have lacked the last few years under center. Pick: Broncos, 20-17.
Line: Chargers -3
ML: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-3)
There seems to be a lot of turmoil in the Raiders' locker room right now and much of that surrounds disgruntled wideout Davante Adams. Will he be traded in the coming weeks? Maybe. But until then, it remains a giant distraction on the team and it may be in everyone's best interest to settle for less than the "second-round pick" they're reportedly after. Pick: Steelers, 23-16.
Line: Steelers -3
ML: Steelers
Spread: Steelers
Atlanta Falcons (3-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-4)
This is one of these scrappy division games that will test the character of this Falcons team. Everyone expects them to be a playoff team, and they will need to commit to the run game on the road here and give the Panthers a taste of their own medicine. Expect a big game from Bijan Robinson. Pick: Falcons, 21-18.
Line: Falcons -6
ML: Falcons
Spread: Panthers
Detroit Lions (3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-2)
This was pegged on the schedule as the game of the week and really it still should be despite the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Cowboys. Dak Prescott elevated his game last week to lead this team to a win over the Steelers and it was nothing short of impressive. Despite Dak's efforts, I think the Lions will roll coming out of their bye week and the combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should have a field day on this front seven. Pick: Lions, 31-21.
Line: Lions -3
ML: Lions
Spread: Lions
Cincinnati Bengals (1-4) @ New York Giants (2-3)
Daniel Jones is quietly putting together a decent season, despite his retractors (I'm one of them) and will need to lean on Darius Slayton a little more this week as Malik Nabers continues to sit out. For the Bengals, just keep executing on offense and eventually this defense will get a stop when it matters. Pick: Bengals, 28-20.
Line: Bengals -3.5
ML: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Buffalo Bills (3-2) @ New York Jets (2-3)
This is a huge game for the landscape of the AFC East and the Jets should be motivated heading into it after Robert Saleh was fired earlier this week. The Bills look lost offensively and I'm wondering if the departure of Stefon Diggs is bigger than initially thought. Whatever the case, they'll need to surround Josh Allen with some help if they want to get their season back on track. Pick: Jets, 23-20.
Line: Bills -2.5
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Results
Week 5
ML: 8-6
ATS: 7-6-1
Overall
ML: 46-32
ATS: 39-37-2
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