I think we're starting to get an idea of the "contenders" and "pretenders" of this regular season after some surprise finishes last week. Next up, the Bills and Chiefs headline some important Week 6 matchups. Let's dive into the picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 14)
Washington Commanders (1-4) @ Chicago Bears (2-3)
There isn't much to love about the prospects of watching this game, save for the feel good story of rookie Brian Robinson Jr. getting the start in this one. This is a complete coin flip and it seemed like Ron Rivera called out his starting QB earlier this week. Will Carson Wentz improve on his 6-0 record on Thursday night? Pick: Commanders, 16-13.
Line: Commanders -1
ML: Commanders
Spread: Commanders
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ New York Giants (4-1)
Somehow the Giants pulled off the upset over the Packers last week in London (and likely some survivor pools got thinner because of it). I still don't think this Giants team is better than mediocre and this will be an interesting matchup between Lamar Jackson and Giants defensive coordinator "Wink" Martindale. Pick: Ravens, 21-17.
Line: Ravens -5.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Giants
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-3)
The Bengals badly need a win here to stay afloat in the AFC wildcard picture. Joe Burrow will return to Louisiana where he dominated in college football at LSU -- could this be a homecoming for the young gunslinger? Pick: Bengals, 24-20.
Line: Bengals -1.5
ML: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)
It looks like Jonathan Taylor will suit up for the Colts this week, which will be a huge boost to this offense. Frank Reich's team has played their way to two gritty wins over the Chiefs and Broncos this year and I really can't see the Jags pulling off the clean sweep. Pick: Colts, 20-17.
Line: Colts -2
ML: Colts
Spread: Colts
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Skylar Thompson is getting the start this week for the Dolphins and he was very much a deer caught in the headlights last week after stepping in for Teddy Bridgewater. I think the Vikings will roll here as Thompson needs some more seasoning under center and Kirk Cousins could have a big day against a Dolphins secondary allowing 276.8 PYDS/G (28th in NFL) so far this season. Pick: Vikings, 26-16.
Line: Vikings -3
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
New England Patriots (2-3) Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Bill Belichick absolutely dismantled Jared Goff and the Lions offense last week and he will be chomping at the bit to do it again facing his former quarterback Jacoby Brissett. This game features two great backfields and has the potential to be a hard fought, low scoring affair. I think the Browns have more playmakers here and I'll take them at home. Pick: Browns, 17-14.
Line: Browns -2.5
ML: Browns
Spread: Browns
New York Jets (3-2) @ Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Since Robert Saleh went on a tirade about collecting receipts, the Jets are now sitting at a surprising 3-2. I have to think though that Aaron Rodgers is highly motivated following a disappointing loss to the Giants and could take some frustrations out here on this Jets squad. Pick: Packers, 27-17.
Line: Packers -7.5
ML: Packers
Spread: Packers
San Francisco 49ers (3-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
The 49ers have the chance to take a commanding lead in the NFC West this week with a win over the Falcons and some potential dominoes falling for their rivals elsewhere. They continue to ride a strong defense and if Jimmy Garoppolo protects the football, this team will be tough to beat. Pick: 49ers, 24-17.
Line: 49ers -5.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
The Steelers just got smashed by the Bills and this is a veteran defense that won't take that lightly. The only problem though is that Tom Brady isn't the guy you want to be facing when you're desperate for a bounce back game. I suspect the Bucs will lean on the ground game plenty here and a strong defensive effort. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-14.
Line: Buccaneers -9
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals (2-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
This game is a complete toss up for me as I can't invest much in the Cardinals and think they will be one of the more inconsistent teams all year long. Geno Smith has been stellar for the Seahawks so far and I think he can continue that at home this week. Pick: Seahawks, 24-21.
Line: Cardinals -2.5
ML: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks
Carolina Panthers (1-4) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
The Rams were completely flat last week at home to the Cowboys and the difference in that game was special teams. With Matt Rhule out as head coach for the Panthers, the team might put forth an inspiring effort in his absence, but ultimately I think Sean McVay's squad needs the win here. Pick: Rams, 24-16.
Line: Rams -10
ML: Rams
Spread: Panthers
Buffalo Bills (4-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
This is the game of the week and I think we will look back on this as the deciding factor for home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. It's Josh Allen against Patrick Mahomes once again and I'm just going to side with the home side here. Pick: Chiefs, 30-27.
Line: Bills -2.5
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)
This is a big matchup in the NFC East with two great defenses going toe-to-toe and that's really been the story for the Cowboys with Dak Prescott being sidelined, as it has been the defense stepping up. This will be Jalen Hurts' first big test against an elite defense and I think the difference will be Cooper Rush's inability to keep pace. Pick: Eagles, 23-16.
Line: Eagles -6.5
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Denver Broncos (2-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)
The Broncos are really struggling out of the gate and there are questions about Russell Wilson's ability to lead this team for the rest of the season and beyond. It's the start John Elway was hoping to avoid after a big contract extension and I view this as a must-win game for them. Pick: Chargers, 23-20.
Line: Chargers -4.5
ML: Chargers
Spread: Broncos
Results
Week 5
ML: 11-5
ATS: 7-9
Overall
ML: 50-30
ATS: 44-34-2
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