The surprising storylines continue through four weeks, with the Minnesota Vikings staying undefeated as they head out on the road to London. And, injuries continue to pile up across the league and the biggest impact might be for the Dallas Cowboys in the Sunday night game as they will be without two of their defensive stars. Let's dive into the Week 5 game picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
The Bucs have surprised many to open the season and much of that has to do with Baker Mayfield playing at a high level. It was easy to think their division win from last year was a fluke in the post-Tom Brady era, but I think this Todd Bowles defense still has plenty of juice left in it. With that being said, I think Kirk Cousins will grow better and better in this new offense each week, boosting his confidence. Pick: Falcons, 27-24.
Line: Falcons -2.5
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
New York Jets (2-2) vs Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
The Jets have not been consistent to this point in the season and this will be their biggest test in a game that will be played on neutral ground in England. As good as the Vikings have looked so far, this is one of these games where flukiness is in the air and I'm going to lean with the Jets' defense here in a tight game. Pick: Jets, 20-17.
Line: Vikings -2.5
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Carolina Panthers (1-3) @ Chicago Bears (2-2)
The Bears might have broken through on offense last week against the Rams. It wasn't pretty by any means, but Caleb Williams connected in the end zone with D.J. Moore and he needed that for his confidence. Pick: Bears, 23-16.
Line: Bears -4
ML: Bears
Spread: Bears
Baltimore Ravens (2-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
After a slow start, the Ravens have found their groove and the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry looks lethal. The Bengals got in the win column last week and their offense hasn't been the issue. I have a hard time believing this front seven will slow down the Ravens' run game. Pick: Ravens, 27-20.
Line: Ravens -2.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Houston Texans (3-1)
The Bills will be without Ed Oliver and Khalil Shakir for this game, but I think Josh Allen will elevate his game this week to prove why he is in the MVP conversation. Will we get a Stefon Diggs revenge spot here? Pick: Bills, 24-23.
Line: Texans -1
ML: Bills
Spread: Bills
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
I still can't believe Doug Pederson is the head coach of the Jags. It seems like he's completely lost the locker room and I don't see how Trevor Lawrence reaches his potential without a fresh look. Despite that, I think the football gods come through this week and the Jags find the win column. Pick: Jaguars, 24-17.
Line: Jaguars -3
ML: Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars
Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ New England Patriots (1-3)
The result of this game could have an impact on the first overall pick in 2025. It might be early for that type of windfall, but things could spiral quickly for either team the rest of the way here. Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Dolphins, Mike McDaniel still needs to find creative ways to get his playmakers the ball. Pick: Dolphins, 19-16.
Line: Patriots -1
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins
Cleveland Browns (1-3) @ Washington Commanders (3-1)
The Browns lost a heartbreaker to the Raiders last week after a go ahead touchdown for Amari Cooper was erased in the fourth quarter on a bogus holding call. It's amazing what a week can do as Cooper is now the subject of trade rumors after his contract was restructured. I think the Jayden Daniels hype is real and the Commanders jump out to a bigger lead in the NFC East. Pick: Commanders, 26-17.
Line: Commanders -3
ML: Commanders
Spread: Commanders
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-2)
Somehow the Broncos walked out of New York with a win last week in those sloppy conditions. The key here will be to get the run game going against this Raiders front seven and if Sean Payton can do that, the Broncos will find themselves in the AFC West conversation. Pick: Broncos, 17-14.
Line: Broncos -3
ML: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
The Niners bounced back big time last week after letting a win against the Rams slip away the week before. The offense will get Deebo Samuel Sr. back and it looks like George Kittle will be ready to go too. It's a desperation spot for the Cardinals, but I think the pass rush will be too much for Kyler Murray. Pick: 49ers, 30-20.
Line: 49ers -7
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (1-3)
The Rams are hanging on by a thread without their stud wideouts and I don't see this defense being able to show up in a big spot against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. Look for Josh Jacobs to get a few more touches this week and keep the pressure off Love. Pick: Packers, 27-17.
Line: Packers -3
ML: Packers
Spread: Packers
New York Giants (1-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
The Giants are definitely a team in that first overall pick conversation and there were reports that some offensive players approached Brian Daboll about pivoting from Daniel Jones this week. I think this Seahawks defense absolutely feasts this week and it's a real possibility we get Drew Lock under center for the Giants sooner rather than later. Pick: Seahawks, 24-15.
Line: Seahawks -7
ML: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Typically, I would've given this Cowboys team a fighting chance this week in a prime time spot, but the defensive injuries are too daunting. Without Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, I'm not sure who will step up to get after Justin Fields. Pick: Steelers, 24-17.
Line: Steelers -2.5
ML: Steelers
Spread: Steelers
New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Every time we think an injury will affect this Chiefs team, they just buckle down and find a way to overcome that and pull out a victory. The scary part about them so far, is we haven't really seen their offense click since the Week 1 win over the Ravens, yet they're undefeated. Derek Carr has had some success at Arrowhead Stadium in his career, and I wonder if this Saints defense can rise to the occasion. Pick: Saints, 23-20.
Line: Chiefs -5.5
ML: Saints
Spread: Saints
Results
Week 4
ML: 11-5
ATS: 7-8-1
Overall
ML: 38-26
ATS: 32-31-1
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