A few teams have started to make some early separation after the conclusion of last week's games and for those not up to speed, the Texans have found their franchise quarterback. Two divisions to keep an eye on as the season progresses, are the AFC and NFC South, as a few surprises are unfolding through four weeks of the season. Let's dive into the Week 5 game picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 6)
Chicago Bears (0-4) @ Washington Commanders (2-2)
Last week, the Bears carried a 28-7 lead into the 4th quarter, only to squander it to the Broncos and lose on a late field goal. This team has completely hit rock bottom and Matt Eberflus has the inside track on being the first coach fired this season. Despite that, I wasn't a huge believer in the Commanders to start the year and with their backs against the wall, I would expect the Bears to keep this close throughout. Pick: Commanders, 24-20.
Line: Commanders -6
ML: Commanders
Spread: Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) vs Buffalo Bills (3-1)
The Bills absolutely dominated the Dolphins at home last week and sent a message to the rest of the AFC in the process. Now, they're travelling overseas to play a Jags team that should be well rested, coming off a win in England last week. This game has the potential to be a shootout and if that's the case, I can't see the Jags' defense making a stop when it matters. Pick: Bills, 33-28.
Line: Bills -5.5
ML: Bills
Spread: Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Anything can happen in these AFC North showdowns, which traditionally tend to be slugfests. I'd like the Steelers to hold down the fort at home here, but Matt Canada seems to be driving this offense into the ground as they've posted 300 yards of total offense in just one game this season. Despite some of the injuries to the Ravens, I think Lamar Jackson puts on a gritty performance and John Harbaugh's squad comes away with a tough victory. Pick: Ravens, 19-16.
Line: Ravens -4.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Steelers
Carolina Panthers (0-4) @ Detroit Lions (3-1)
The Panthers are still searching for their first win of the season and I'll be blunt in saying it won't be happening this Sunday. Dan Campbell has the Lions locked in with extra rest after a big divisional win over the Packers last week. Amon-Ra St. Brown has missed practice twice this week, so that will be something to monitor, but the Lions should be able to control the line of scrimmage here to put them over the top. Pick: Lions, 26-17.
Line: Lions -10
ML: Lions
Spread: Panthers
Houston Texans (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
I think the Texans are a lot scrappier than many people thought heading into the season and C.J. Stroud looks every bit of a potential star in this league. Demeco Ryans has changed the culture in Houston, and this is going to be a tough team to play against all season long. In saying that, Desmond Ridder is 4-0 at home in his career and the Falcons have an opportunity to keep pace with the Bucs in the division. Pick: Falcons, 26-23.
Line: Falcons -1.5
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ New England Patriots (1-3)
Derek Carr tried toughing it out last week against the Bucs, but he was a shell of his usual self. This has the makings for a defensive style of game and I can't see either offense being able to move the ball particularly well. Mac Jones looks completely lost to me, and I can't help but think the injuries to Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon will greatly impact this game. Pick: Saints, 17-14.
Line: Patriots -1
ML: Saints
Spread: Saints
New York Giants (1-3) @ Miami Dolphins (3-1)
The Dolphins were humbled last week as Tua Tagovailoa's struggles in Buffalo continued. Now, they have a great bounce back spot against the reeling Giants, who have struggled to protect Daniel Jones in the pocket. Pick: Dolphins, 31-20.
Line: Dolphins -12
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Giants
Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
This is a pivotal game for the AFC South as the Colts will be looking to do everything they can to slow down Derrick Henry from the onset. I think Anthony Richardson showed a lot of resilience in the second half of last week's game and he could be the difference in this game for Shane Steichen's group. Pick: Colts, 24-21.
Line: Titans -2.5
ML: Colts
Spread: Colts
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
The Cardinals have played some tough games so far this year, including an upset of the Cowboys. Both these teams share a 1-3 record, but this would certainly be another upset for the Cards at home if they can hold off the Bengals. Joe Burrow mentioned this week that after the Week 4 loss, his calf is feeling great...we shall see. Pick: Bengals, 23-16.
Line: Bengals -3
ML: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
The Rams are hanging in tough considering they've been without Cooper Kupp through the first month of the season, but that's about to change as the star wideout will be back this week. Can the dynamic duo of Kupp and Puka Nacua lead this team past the Eagles? This could be an offensive thriller and maybe some overtime will be in store for the Eagles in back-to-back weeks? Pick: Eagles, 27-21.
Line: Eagles -4
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
The Vikings got in the win column last week on the road in Carolina and the Chiefs looked a bit vulnerable on both sides of the ball on Sunday night after jumping out to a 17-0 lead. I'm going to chalk that up to an off game for Patrick Mahomes and say he bounces back against a weak Vikings secondary here. Look for Isiah Pacheco to be the difference in this game, I like how hard he runs and creates separation between the tackles. Pick: Chiefs, 30-23.
Line: Chiefs -3.5
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
New York Jets (1-3) @ Denver Broncos (1-3)
There was a lot of hype for this game during the preseason when Sean Payton made headlines, criticizing Nathaniel Hackett's coaching job with the Broncos last season. Now, these two teams get the chance to put all of that to rest and leave it on the field in Week 5. I'll lean towards the better defense with the Jets here. Pick: Jets, 20-17.
Line: Broncos -2.5
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
This could be an early preview of the NFC Championship game in January as two great defenses square off in this Sunday night tilt. I don't know that the Cowboys are there yet, the defense has certainly played well, but Kyle Shanahan seems to have Mike McCarthy figured out and that's the difference here for me. Pick: 49ers, 27-20.
Line: 49ers -3.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Green Bay Packers (2-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)
The Packers have had plenty of time to digest their Week 4 loss to the Lions and if this team has a back bone, they will show it against the Raiders. Matt LaFleur was not thrilled during his postgame press conference and I think he will light a fire under this young Packers squad before Monday night. Pick: Packers, 23-20.
Line: Raiders -1
ML: Packers
Spread: Packers
Results
Week 4
ML: 14-2
ATS: 10-5-1
Overall
ML: 44-20
ATS: 37-24-3
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