It was a scary scene last Thursday night with Tua Tagovailoa being rushed off the field to a nearby hospital after presumably his second concussion in five days. It was a sour start to Week 4 that picked up with a Sunday night thriller that saw the Chiefs beat the Bucs in a shootout. Onto Week 5 and a look at this week's slate of games.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Oct. 9)
Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-2)
The Broncos just continue to make poor decisions on the offensive side of the ball and it's to the point where I'm not even sure if Russell Wilson is the problem or Nathaniel Hackett? Whatever the case, the story continues to be how much their defense can carry them? Without Jonathan Taylor, I think the Colts fall just short. Pick: Broncos, 16-14.
Line: Broncos -3
ML: Broncos
Spread: Colts
New York Giants (3-1) vs Green Bay Packers (3-1)
This game is being played in London, which probably plays into the Giants' favor here, although I can't see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers scraping by like last week. The offense should be able to string together enough big plays for this to be a comfortable win. Pick: Packers, 27-17.
Line: Packers -8.5
ML: Packers
Spread: Packers
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)
What is going on in Tom Brady's personal life? It seems that he now has the ultimate baby mama drama and I wonder how much of a factor that plays into the rest of his season? Personally, I don't think the Falcons are good enough to hang with the Bucs here, but then again the shoulder and finger ailments to Brady are something to monitor. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-16.
Line: Buccaneers -10
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Falcons
Chicago Bears (2-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-1)
I see the Bears are coming back down to Earth a little bit and it's a surprise they're even .500 so far considering Justin Field's struggles in the pocket. The long flight home for the Vikings after playing in England last week could be a factor, however, I haven't seen enough from the Bears this year that would give me much confidence in the upset. Pick: Vikings, 24-13.
Line: Vikings -7.5
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Detroit Lions (1-3) @ New England Patriots (1-3)
The Lions seem to be one of the more unlucky teams through four weeks and I think they are better than their record suggests to this point. That being said, I like what I've seen from the Pats defense so far and it doesn't look like Amon-Ra St. Brown or D'Andre Swift will suit up again this week. Think back to that Rams and Pats Super Bowl where Bill Belichick had Jared Goff's number and I think his defensive schemes prevail again. Pick: Patriots, 19-17.
Line: Patriots -3
ML: Patriots
Spread: Lions
Houston Texans (0-3-1) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
The Jags started out hot last week in Philly, jumping out to a 14-0 lead before sputtering down the stretch. Trevor Lawrence was sloppy, turning the ball over five times and I have to think Doug Pederson relies a bit more on his backfield this week in an effort to protect the ball better. Pick: Jaguars, 23-15.
Line: Jaguars -7
ML: Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2)
This is an interesting matchup that features two teams with very solid run games that could ultimately be the difference maker. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should find enough space to keep this game interesting and I think this comes down to a late field goal to win it. Pick: Chargers, 23-20.
Line: Chargers -1
ML: Chargers
Spread: Chargers
Miami Dolphins (3-1) @ New York Jets (2-2)
Teddy Bridgewater will get the start this week against a Jets team coming off a big road win in Pittsburgh. This should be a gritty divisional game and I expect it to be tight from start to finish. Will Zach Wilson get loose for a big play to help Robert Saleh add to his list of receipts? Pick: Dolphins, 21-16.
Line: Dolphins -3.5
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1)
This is a real big spread as Kenny Pickett gets his first career start in Buffalo. Mike Tomlin has a way in these games to get the most out of his team and this is still a pretty solid defense even without T.J. Watt. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should hook up for some big gains, but I think the Steelers surprise here. Pick: Bills, 28-17.
Line: Bills -14
ML: Bills
Spread: Steelers
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) @ New Orleans Saints (1-3)
The Saints came up short in London last week against the Vikings and their season is off to a slow start. It looks like Andy Dalton will be under center again this week, but I just don't know how healthy this offense is. How much can we invest in this Geno Smith led offense and are the Seahawks pretenders? Pick: Saints, 24-21.
Line: Saints -5.5
ML: Saints
Spread: Seahawks
Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Washington Commanders (1-3)
The Titans came up with a huge road win over the Colts last week to stay afloat in the AFC South. They now turn their sights on the Commanders, who have struggled to protect Carson Wentz in the pocket and Derrick Henry will likely be leaned on heavily here. Pick: Titans, 23-17.
Line: Titans -1
ML: Titans
Spread: Titans
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) @ Carolina Panthers (1-3)
The 49ers smothered the Rams last week as their defense continues to be one of the best in the league and I think this is just a tee off spot for them against Baker Mayfield. Jimmy Garoppolo needs to focus on protecting the ball in crucial spots and this Niners team is talented enough for a deep run this season. Pick: 49ers, 23-16.
Line: 49ers -6.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
The Cowboys' defense has been fantastic while Dak Prescott has been sidelined and Cooper Rush continues to play steadily under center. The offense has struggled in the red zone and I'm wondering when that will catch up to them? I'm expecting a big defensive effort from the Rams and this could be the game where the Cowboys' offensive line is exposed. Pick: Rams, 20-16.
Line: Rams -5.5
ML: Rams
Spread: Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
The Eagles continue to roll and are the lone undefeated team remaining. There's potential for this to be a look ahead spot for them as they host the Cowboys next Sunday night. I think Kyler Murray can get loose and create some space to keep the game interesting, but ultimately this Eagles defense will be too much. Pick: Eagles, 27-20.
Line: Eagles -5
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
This is a huge Sunday night matchup with the AFC North lead hanging in the balance. The Ravens have had some sloppy game management so far this year, blowing a huge lead at home to the Dolphins and then last week John Harbaugh elected not to kick a potential game-winning field goal late in the 4th quarter before blowing a lead to the Bills. Pick: Ravens, 24-21.
Line: Ravens -3.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
The Raiders kept their season alive with a win over the Broncos last week, but their AFC West chances are still very much on life support with a date in Kansas City looming. I think Patrick Mahomes is playing some of his best football right now and this could be a shootout that leaves the Chiefs atop the AFC West. Pick: Chiefs, 31-23.
Line: Chiefs -7
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Results
Week 4
ML: 11-5
ATS: 9-6-1
Overall
ML: 39-25
ATS: 37-25-2
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