Week 5 NFL Picks

**All betting lines from bet365.com (updated Sunday)**

N.Y. Jets (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3)

This will be the first game played overseas in England this year and the Jets will be making their first appearance at Wembley Stadium since 2015, while the Falcons will be getting their feet wet for the first time. These games are tough to pick with the difference in time zones, but I thought the Falcons played a sound offensive game and could have won last week at home to the Washington Football Team. For Robert Saleh and his squad, I think there will be too much emotion coming off their first win of the season and even though Calvin Ridley won't make the trip, I think Matt Ryan finds a way to win late. Pick: Falcons, 20-17.

Line: Falcons -2.5

Spread: Falcons

ML: Falcons

Denver Broncos (3-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)

The Steelers hung around last week against the Green Bay Packers and much of that had to do with some key defensive plays, specifically the blocked punt return touchdown by Minkah Fitzpatrick. It's pretty clear though that Ben Roethlisberger is at the end of the line, and this could be a problem as the Broncos have tremendous talent everywhere on the defensive side of the ball. I think the key to this game will once again come down to special teams as I'm expecting a defensive struggle here. The Steelers are desperate for a win to keep pace in the AFC North and I think they squeak one out in front of the Heinz Field faithful. Pick: Steelers, 19-16.

Line: Steelers -1

Spread: Steelers

ML: Steelers

Detroit Lions (0-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

This game is interesting because the Vikings have played much better so far this year than their record would indicate. It's a pretty lopsided game on paper, despite Dan Campbell getting the most out of his team's efforts each week, and the Lions are really just the team we thought they would be (sorry, Dennis Green). Last week's debacle at Solider Field probably didn't sit well this week with Campbell and his staff, so I would expect a better effort in another divisional matchup. We'll see if Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson can be slowed down by the Lions secondary at all. Pick: Vikings, 28-20.

Line: Vikings -10

Spread: Lions

ML: Vikings

Green Bay Packers (3-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

I'll bet not a lot of people had this matchup penciled on their calendars as a must see in Week 5 when the schedule was released. Well, here we are with both of these teams at 3-1 and I don't think the Bengals have played this well in close to a decade. It's an intriguing matchup as the Packers come into this game with an explosive trio between Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. But, what makes it intriguing is that the Bengals front seven has played real tough through the first four weeks, giving up 93.5 RYDS/G (9th) and 18.8 PTS/G (8th). I still think Rodgers wins it late. Pick: Packers, 27-23.

Line: Packers -3

Spread: Packers

ML: Packers

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Tom Brady got his revenge on Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots last week, and surprisingly, it looked like Brady let his emotions get the best of him throughout the game. I think we see a sharper TB12 this week at home to a Dolphins team that really seems to be a shell of themselves from last season. Brady should have his full stable of weapons again this week and shouldn't struggle to move the ball down the field. Pick: Buccaneers, 30-17.

Line: Buccaneers -10

Spread: Buccaneers

ML: Buccaneers

New England Patriots (1-3) @ Houston Texans (1-3)

Mac Jones has been pretty comfortable so far under center for this Patriots offense. He looks cool, calm and collected in the pocket, making a lot of good reads. The Texans on the other hand have lost three in a row and although they have played some tough games for head coach, David Culley, the talent just isn't there for this squad right now. I'm a little bit surprised by how large this line is considering the Pats were in this same position last year on the road and lost to the Texans (Cam Newton vs. Deshaun Watson). I think they get a great defensive effort and come away with the win, but it shouldn't be a blowout. Pick: Patriots, 24-16.

Line: Patriots -9

Spread: Texans

ML: Patriots

New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ Washington Football Team (2-2)

Washington's defense has been the story here so far this season as they have not lived up to expectations. With that, Taylor Heinicke has been a pleasant surprise taking over in the starting role and you have to appreciate his grit in the pocket. I think Sean Payton will have to reach deep into his bag of tricks for this game as we still haven't seen Chase Young make a profound impact, but I can't help but feel it's coming and this would be the perfect spot against Jameis Winston. Pick: Saints, 24-21.

Line: Saints -2.5

Spread: Saints

ML: Saints

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) @ Carolina Panthers (3-1)

The Panthers were handed their first loss of the season last week by the Dallas Cowboys and it was really the first time their defense looked out of sorts. They will once again be without Christian McCaffrey in this one, so expect D.J. Moore to see plenty of targets. The Eagles are very much desperate for a win as they look to snap a three-game losing streak, but it's hard to instill any confidence in this team right now. I think Matt Rhule will have his defense back on track, creating plenty of pressure on Jalen Hurts. Pick: Panthers, 24-17.

Line: Panthers -3

Spread: Panthers

ML: Panthers

Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)

Well, Urban Meyer made headlines this week for all the wrong reasons and the circus that is the Jaguars continues on with the show in search of their first win this year. Trevor Lawrence seems to be getting better each week, but this team just seems to breakdown in key spots due to its inexperience. With a divisional matchup on tap against the Titans, I would imagine we see plenty of Derrick Henry this week as Mike Vrabel's squad looks to recover from a tough loss last week to the Jets. Pick: Titans, 23-17.

Line: TItans -4.5

Spread: Titans

ML: Titans

Chicago Bears (2-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)

Matt Nagy finally committed to Justin Fields as his starting QB the rest of the way after being a bit tongue and cheek with everything over the past week. I'd say it's the right call, considering he's a much more dynamic player than Andy Dalton is at this point of his career. The Raiders were outplayed last week in a divisional showdown on Monday night with the L.A. Chargers. Now, they look to bounce back on home field in what should be a get right spot. Pick: Raiders, 24-17.

Line: Raiders -5.5

Spread: Bears

ML: Raiders

Cleveland Browns (3-1) @ L.A. Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers picked up a huge Monday night win over the Raiders, to stake their claim in the race for the AFC West. Justin Herbert is looking every bit the first-round QB they drafted him to be as he looks more and more comfortable in the pocket each week. Speaking of first-round QB's, Baker Mayfield will be lined up opposite of Herbert and is dealing with a partially torn labrum that he will apparently play through the rest of the year. What does this mean for the Browns' offense? Well, I have to wonder if they will lean even more heavily on the combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Pick: Browns, 23-20.

Line: Chargers -2.5

Spread: Browns

ML: Browns

N.Y. Giants (1-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1)

The Giants might have been the upset special of the week taking down the Saints in their home opener. The offense was certainly rolling and Saquon Barkley showed signs of why many believe him to be one of the best RB's in the game. Can this translate over to a road game in Dallas? Well, the Cowboys have played some strong football so far this year, and the biggest surprise has been Dan Quinn's defense. Trevon Diggs seems to be an early candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors as he will look to lead this defense to another strong performance this week. Pick: Cowboys, 28-20.

Line: Cowboys -7

Spread: Cowboys

ML: Cowboys

San Francisco 49ers (2-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-0)

The Cardinals have been on an absolute roll to start the year and looked dominant in a win over the Rams last week. I'd say Kyler Murray has the inside track right now on winning the MVP, currently leading all eligible QB's with a 76.1 CMP%, while adding 1,273 PYDS (4th) and 9 TD (T-6th). The Cards definitely look like a team with no weaknesses, but I'm just waiting for the hiccup game. There were flashes of this in Week 3 against the Jags when they trailed at half, but ultimately found themselves when it mattered late. I think the Niners can pose a tough divisional matchup for Murray and company, and I would look for this squad to play hard in front of rookie Trey Lance who is making his first NFL start. Pick: 49ers, 27-24.

Line: Cardinals -5.5

Spread: 49ers

ML: 49ers

Buffalo Bills (3-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

This is the game of the week right here in the rematch of last year's AFC Championship game. It has all the makings, from the Stefon Diggs montage we will likely see play a cameo on Sunday Night Football to the high-flying Chiefs offense going up against a Bills defense that has posted two shutouts this season. We know that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes can sling it, but the key to this game will likely be which defense can force the opposing offense into a turnover. The Bills are hungry to make their mark, but I really feel the Chiefs need this game badly to keep pace in the division. Pick: Chiefs, 28-27.

Line: Chiefs -3

Spread: Bills

ML: Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

The Colts finally got a win last week, beating the Dolphins on the road, but they have plenty of work to do to get back into the AFC South conversation. Can Carson Wentz stay healthy enough for this team to win meaningful games? On the flip side, the Ravens went to Mile High and came away with a big road victory. Lamar Jackson says he's fully healthy and ready to compete and I would expect a big effort in front of the home crowd under the lights. Something about this line seems fishy and I think Frank Reich gets the most out of his team on Monday night. Pick: Ravens, 21-17.

Line: Ravens -7

Spread: Colts

ML: Ravens

2021 Results

Week 4

ATS: 9-7

ML: 10-6

Overall

ATS: 36-28

ML: 40-24