We've seen some really tough injury luck so far to open the season. Most notably, Christian McCaffrey continues to battle an Achilles injury and has visited a specialist all the way in Germany. Still, the expectation is he could miss up to a couple of months.
Aside from injuries piling up, there have been some surprising slow starts as well. The Bengals are 0-3 with a defense that seemingly can't stop a nosebleed and the 49ers and Ravens find themselves at 1-2.
With some big Week 4 games and some must-win spots on tap, let's dive into this week's game picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Sept. 29)
Dallas Cowboys (1-2) @ New York Giants (1-2)
Normally, I wouldn't hesitate taking the Cowboys here considering Dak Prescott has owned the Giants in his career to the tune of a 12-2 record. However, this defense has struggled to stop the run through the first three weeks and until they can do that more consistently, I don't see this team winning games handily. Pick: Cowboys, 26-23.
Line: Cowboys -5.5
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Giants
New Orleans Saints (2-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
There were concerns that Alvin Kamara wouldn't be able to suit up for this game, but a late Friday practice designation changed all of that. After a hot start for the Saints, they were humbled by the Eagles last week and could also be without start receiver Chris Olave in this divisional matchup. I think Kirk Cousins will grow more and more comfortable in this offense each week, give me the home team here. Pick: Falcons, 20-17.
Line: Falcons -2.5
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2)
The Bengals have been let down by their defense the last two weeks and could easily be 2-1 right now. I think Joe Burrow has been solid after a shaky Week 1 start and should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart this Panthers secondary. Will his defense hold up their end of the bargain? Pick: Bengals, 27-23.
Line: Bengals -4.5
ML: Bengals
Spread: Panthers
Los Angeles Rams (1-2) @ Chicago Bears (1-2)
The Rams pulled out a gutsy comeback over the Niners last week and now Matthew Stafford leads his team into familiar territory at Soldier Field. It's worth noting that Caleb Williams has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season, I think that changes on Sunday. Pick: Bears, 23-16.
Line: Bears -3
ML: Bears
Spread: Bears
Minnesota Vikings (3-0) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Kevin O'Connell has got more out of Sam Darnold through three weeks then we've seen in his entire career and the Vikings are among the league's undefeated. With Jordan Love returning from a knee injury, his mobility will likely be limited, but he certainly provides a boost in the passing game. Despite that, I think the Vikings are the better squad right now and firing on all cylinders. Pick: Vikings, 26-21.
Line: Packers -3
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) @ Houston Texans (2-1)
I didn't think Doug Pederson would make it on the plane home after that Monday night loss in Buffalo. I guess he lives to see another day, but you have to think he's on a short leash amidst the offensive struggles for the Jags. Now, they get a road matchup against a Texans team that was blown out by the Vikings last week -- this could be a continued disastrous start. Pick: Texans, 28-20.
Line: Texans -5.5
ML: Texans
Spread: Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
The Steelers are off to a hot start with the defense playing at the high level we expected them to. The story though has been about Justin Fields steering the ship in Russell Wilson's absence and so far, so good. This game comes down to the trust factor in Anthony Richardson and quite frankly, I have very little. It's easy to lean on Jonathan Taylor here, but keep in mind the Steelers have the fourth-best run defense through three weeks. Pick: Steelers, 19-16.
Line: Steelers -2.5
ML: Steelers
Spread: Steelers
Denver Broncos (1-2) @ New York Jets (2-1)
There was a lot of talk between Aaron Rodgers and Sean Payton last year on the topic of Nathaniel Hackett and we didn't get to see that matchup. Now, we will see if there is any animosity left over (especially on Rodgers' part) in a game that will surely test rookie Bo Nix. Pick: Jets, 26-14.
Line: Jets -8
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Plenty of injuries in this game, specifically on the Eagles' side of the ball -- A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson all out. I was already on the Bucs and that zone defense, which Jalen Hurts has struggled against in recent years. Look for the pass rush to create headaches for Hurts. Pick: Buccaneers, 23-20.
Line: Eagles -1.5
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
Washington Commanders (2-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
This game has the potential to be the shootout of the week with two mobile quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels officially arrived on the scene last week in Cincinnati, looking every bit like a polished veteran. With Trey McBride out and Marvin Harrison Jr. playing through an injury, the Cardinals will likely lean on James Conner more in this game. Pick: Cardinals, 26-23.
Line: Cardinals -3.5
ML: Cardinals
Spread: Commanders
New England Patriots (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
The Niners blew a double-digit second half lead to the Rams last week, which was uncharacteristic of Kyle Shanahan's team. It looks like George Kittle could suit up for this game, which would be a welcomed boost to an offense that continues to be without Christian McCaffrey. I think the defense steps up today and takes advantage of a lackluster Pats' offense. Pick: 49ers, 28-13.
Line: 49ers -10.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Cleveland Browns (1-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-2)
Antonio Pierce called out his team after a poor effort last week against the Panthers, citing that personnel changes could be coming. It doesn't help that Davante Adams will miss this week with a hamstring injury (and potentially longer). The Browns haven't played inspiring football themselves, but I'll lean on their defense here. Pick: Browns, 21-16.
Line: Browns -2.5
ML: Browns
Spread: Browns
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
The Chiefs are undefeated despite the fact that they've looked average the last couple of weeks. The defense has been their strong point and in a potential smashmouth type of game with the Chargers on deck, they will have to lean on them again here. Pick: Chiefs, 26-16.
Line: Chiefs -7
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-2)
The Bills might be the best team in the NFL right now and that may surprise some after Stefon Diggs' departure in the offseason. The defense has been better than anticipated and they will need to contain Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry if they want to come away with a road win in prime time. Pick: Ravens, 26-23.
Line: Ravens -2.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
Tennessee Titans (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2)
It's now or never for Will Levis and you can feel the tension mounting between he and Brian Callahan after an 0-3 start. It's expected that Tyler Huntley will start for the Dolphins and if the Titans lose this game, the rumors will begin swirling about the organization looking to draft a quarterback in 2025. Pick: Dolphins, 21-17.
Line: Dolphins -2.5
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1)
This is a big matchup early on in the season for the landscape of the NFC. The Lions played to their style last week in Arizona and Dan Campbell will have his team ready to go at home in prime time. Can Mike Macdonald's surprise start continue as the Seahawks look to remain undefeated? Pick: Lions, 27-20.
Line: Lions -3.5
ML: Lions
Spread: Seahawks
Results
Week 3
ML: 9-7
ATS: 10-6
Overall
ML: 27-21
ATS: 25-23
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