Week 18 NFL Picks

We've reached the final week of the regular season and the playoff picture is nearly set. Three teams in the AFC are battling for the final wildcard spot this weekend -- the Bengals, Broncos and Dolphins. It's always a tricky time of year because many starters will be resting ahead of the playoffs next week, so let's dive into the Week 18 game picks.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Jan. 4)

Cleveland Browns (3-13) @ Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

The Ravens have a chance to clinch the AFC North division title at home here and they're hosting a Browns offense that will be fielding some of its third stringers. The emphasis will be on the ground game, especially with a incentive bonus looming for Derrick Henry should he find the end zone. Ravens take this one big. Pick: Ravens, 31-10.

Line: Ravens -19.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

The Bengals found themselves with a slim chance to make the playoffs about a month ago, needing to win out and get some help. Well, here they are on the road with their playoff lives hanging in the balance and Joe Burrow is playing MVP caliber football. The Steelers have lost three straight games and the defense looks like a shell of its usual self under Mike Tomlin. I like the Bengals to win this game and keep things interesting on Sunday. Pick: Bengals, 27-20.

Line: Bengals -2.5

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals

Carolina Panthers (4-12) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

The Falcons let the division slip through their grasp over the last two weeks and will now need a win at home over the Panthers and a Bucs loss in Week 18. The switch to Michael Penix Jr. signals that this team has moved on from Kirk Cousins, so that will be an interesting storyline heading into the offseason. I think this team gets one more win to keep things interesting on Sunday. Pick: Falcons, 24-17.

Line: Falcons -8

ML: Falcons

Spread: Panthers

Washington Commanders (11-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-9)

The Commanders have locked up a playoff spot and are simply playing for seeding this Sunday. It's a bit of a coming home party for head coach Dan Quinn after being the defensive coordinator in Dallas the last four years. There's not a lot of motivation for Washington here, so I think the Cowboys finish the year strong at home. Pick: Cowboys, 26-24.

Line: Commanders -6.5

ML: Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys

Chicago Bears (4-12) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Just like the Commanders, the Packers have already secured a playoff spot and are playing for the higher seed in the wildcard round. I've seen nothing from the Bears that would suggest they hang around in this game and it should be a cake walk for Matt LaFleur's squad. Pick: Packers, 27-16.

Line: Packers -10

ML: Packers

Spread: Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

The Colts' playoff chances slipped through the cracks with a loss to the Giants last week -- a tough pill to swallow. I wonder if they consider a change from Anthony Richardson in the offseason and maybe this team will have interest in Kirk Cousins? Pick: Colts, 23-15.

Line: Colts -3.5

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

Buffalo Bills (13-3) @ New England Patriots (3-13)

The Bills will be resting virtually everyone on both sides of the ball as they're firmly cemented in that second seed atop the AFC. I'll take the "underdog" Pats here at home, in a game that could impact their draft position in May. Pick: Patriots, 23-16.

Line: Bills -3.5

ML: Patriots

Spread: Patriots

New York Giants (3-13) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

Another game with not much at stake here, except for the Giants' draft stock. The Eagles have their minds on the playoffs and surprisingly the G-Men stunned the Colts last week, which effectively created a big shuffle in the draft order for next year. I still think the Eagles win here at home despite the backups playing. Pick: Eagles, 21-14.

Line: Eagles -2.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Eagles

New Orleans Saints (5-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

It's simple for the Bucs this week, a win and they clinch the NFC South. Baker Mayfield has been outstanding this season, with a 39:15 TD:INT ratio. You can't say enough about the journeyman quarterback as he's found a home in Tampa Bay with this offense. Pick: Buccaneers, 33-17.

Line: Buccaneers -14

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers

Houston Texans (9-7) @ Tennessee Titans (3-13)

The Texans wrapped up the AFC South last week, thanks to the Colts loss and will host a wildcard game for the second straight year. Demeco Ryans will be resting some of his starters and with the Titans playing for pride, I'll lean on the home side here. Pick: Titans, 23-17.

Line: Titans -1.5

ML: Titans

Spread: Titans

San Francisco 49ers (6-10) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-9)

It was a disappointing season for the Niners, who had Super Bowl aspirations heading into the year. The injuries to Christian McCaffrey didn't help and the offense struggled throughout the year at times. They will lean on Joshua Dobbs to close out the year and earn some bragging rights against the Cardinals. Pick: 49ers, 23-20.

Line: Cardinals -4.5

ML: 49ers

Spread: 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) @ Denver Broncos (9-7)

The Chiefs have locked up home field advantage in the AFC, and as a result they will rest their big guns for this game against the Broncos. The Broncos need a win to secure the final playoff spot, and Sean Payton will lead a young team on the road to face the Bills next week. Pick: Broncos, 24-17.

Line: Broncos -11

ML: Broncos

Spread: Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)

The Chargers have a chance to move up a spot this week with a win over the Raiders, and that would mean a road game in Houston next week. Jim Harbaugh mentioned in the media this week that he could rest some of his starters, but I think they play through the first half at minimum. Pick: Chargers, 21-17.

Line: Chargers -4.5

ML: Chargers

Spread: Raiders

Seattle Seahawks (9-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

With the NFC West already locked up, the Rams will be resting their starters, but that doesn't mean there's no skin on the line in this game. Geno Smith has some extra cash to play for, and I think this Seahawks team will be out to finish the season on a high note. Pick: Seahawks, 26-17.

Line: Seahawks -7

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Miami Dolphins (8-8) @ New York Jets (4-12)

The rumors are swirling that this could be the final game of Aaron Rodgers' career, and what an opportunity for him to spoil the Dolphins' playoff chances in one last hurrah. I think the Jets get it done on Sunday and you could see both of their top wideouts find pay dirt. Pick: Jets, 24-21.

Line: Dolphins -1

ML: Jets

Spread: Jets

Minnesota Vikings (14-2) @ Detroit Lions (14-2)

This is the biggest game to end the regular season, with the NFC North title on the line. What a story the Vikings and Sam Darnold have been this year and they are going to be a tough out in the playoffs regardless of where they finish. I like the Lions in this game though, as I think this team has battled hard through some tough injuries and that home field advantage is significant for them. Pick: Lions, 27-24.

Line: Lions -3

ML: Lions

Spread: Lions

Results

Week 17

ML: 12-4

ATS: 6-10

Overall

ML: 174-82 (67.9%)

ATS: 135-117-4 (52.7%)