We've reached the final weekend of the regular season as Week 18 is upon us (that will take some getting used to saying in the future). Some surprises from last week as Joe Burrow and the young, upstart Bengals held their ground at home to top the Chiefs and the Raiders might be for real? They knocked off the Colts with a late field goal to setup a Sunday night showdown with the division rival Chargers to decide an AFC playoff spot. Let's dive into the game picks for Week 18.
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Sunday)
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ Denver Broncos (7-9)
The Chiefs blew a 14-0 lead on the road to the Bengals last week, seemingly losing their grip on home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs (unless the Titans lose to the Texans). Now, they'll be on the road in Denver against a Broncos team focused on the NFL Draft this offseason. I like the Chiefs to bounce back here in a big way. Pick: Chiefs, 30-17.
Line: Chiefs -10.5
Spread: Chiefs
ML: Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys (11-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
The Cowboys suffered a tough loss to the Cardinals last week and have bowed out of the home field advantage sweepstakes in the NFC. But, this game still means something as they will likely try to solidify that second seed (with some tiebreaker help). The Eagles have locked up a playoff spot and will be resting several players, namely Miles Sanders, plus Dallas Goedert, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox and Jordan Howard were all placed on the reserve/Covid-19 list earlier in the week. Pick: Cowboys, 23-14.
Line: Cowboys -4
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
Chicago Bears (6-10) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
After being announced as the Bears starter midweek, Justin Fields will sit the season finale out after being placed on the reserve/Covid-19 list. That leaves either Andy Dalton or Nick Foles under center for this game. And, Kirk Cousins will be back for the Vikings, which I'm sure Justin Jefferson approves of after Sean Mannion's start last week. This game is purely for bragging rights and I'll lean towards the home side. Pick: Vikings, 24-17.
Line: Vikings -4
Spread: Vikings
ML: Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Cleveland Browns (7-9)
What a performance by Joe Burrow last week as he outdueled Patrick Mahomes to lead the Bengals to victory and locking up the AFC North crown in the process. The Bengals announced they will rest their starters even though they have a change to improve on their position in the standings. With Baker Mayfield opting for season-ending surgery on his shoulder, it will be Case Keenum taking snaps for the Browns. Something tells me this game will still be oddly close, but I'll take the Browns in a squeaker. Pick: Browns, 21-17.
Line: Browns -5.5
Spread: Bengals
ML: Browns
Green Bay Packers (13-3) @ Detroit Lions (2-13-1)
Matt LaFleur mentioned that his starters would play this week, but I can't imagine it's for longer than the first quarter seeing as the Packers already have the top seed locked up. As for the Lions this game is all about their pride and it looks like Jared Goff will be under center as he makes his way back from a knee injury. Pick: Lions, 23-17.
Line: Packers -3
Spread: Lions
ML: Lions
Indianapolis Colts (9-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
It's a pretty simple recipe for the Colts this week: win and you're in the playoffs. Traditionally, this has been a tough place to play for Indy as they haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014. Frank Reich's squad will be desperate and I expect them to buck the trend this time around and make their way to wildcard weekend. Pick: Colts, 23-14.
Line: Colts -15
Spread: Jaguars
ML: Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
It was quite the swan song for Ben Roethlisberger on Monday night as he took the final kneel down in the waning moments in front of the Heinz Field crowd. A pretty impressive career for Big Ben that brought two Super Bowls to Steel Town. Now, the Steelers' playoff hopes rest on a win over the Ravens (and some help from the Chargers, Colts and Raiders). Pick: Ravens, 20-17.
Line: Ravens -3.5
Spread: Steelers
ML: Ravens
Tennessee Titans (11-5) @ Houston Texans (4-12)
The Titans have vaulted themselves into the top spot in the AFC after the Chiefs loss to the Bengals last week. And, they got some encouraging news as Derrick Henry returned to practice this week. All they need to do now is beat a pesky Texans team to clinch that first round bye. Pick: Titans, 24-16.
Line: Titans -10.5
Spread: Texans
ML: Titans
Washington Football Team (6-10) @ N.Y. Giants (4-12)
The Football Team has had plenty of drama over the last two weeks, from the sideline antics in a blowout loss to the Cowboys, to a second blown 10-0 lead to the Eagles this season. Now, they wrap their season up against a putrid Giants squad that is simply playing for draft position this Spring. I like the Football Team in a tight spot here. Pick: WFT, 17-14.
Line: WFT -7
Spread: Giants
ML: WFT
Carolina Panthers (5-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4)
What a bizarre scene that was from New York last week seeing Antonio Brown rip off his uniform and jog off the sidelines. Honestly, if Tom Brady wasn't the QB for this team I'd say they would have no chance at bouncing back from that. But, the G.O.A.T. is still just that and these Bucs will probably bounce back no problem and focus their attention on defending the Super Bowl crown. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-17.
Line: Buccaneers -9
Spread: Panthers
ML: Buccaneers
New England Patriots (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (8-8)
The Pats still have a shot at winning the AFC East if they defeat the Dolphins and the Jets surprise the Bills. But, I would say the likelihood that the Bills slip up is next to zero and this Dolphins team has played spoiler to the Pats before (Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2020). I like Mac Jones to edge out Brian Flores' crew here. Pick: Patriots, 24-20.
Line: Patriots -6
Spread: Dolphins
ML: Patriots
New Orleans Saints (8-8) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
The Saints are still clinging to their playoff lives if they can get past the Falcons and the 49ers fail to win on the road over the Rams. Taysom Hill should be able to exploit this Falcons' front seven using his legs and I would expect the Saints' defense to put the pressure on Matt Ryan early and often. Pick: Saints, 24-20.
Line: Saints -3.5
Spread: Saints
ML: Saints
N.Y. Jets (4-12) @ Buffalo Bills (10-6)
If the Bills win this game they lock up the AFC East in the process and can focus their attention on a wildcard game at home. Bills Mafia will be rocking on Sunday and I would expect that momentum to continue into the playoffs. If Josh Allen can clean up some of his mistakes that we've seen the last few weeks, this team might be primed for another deep run in the playoffs. Pick: Bills, 33-14.
Line: Bills -16.5
Spread: Bills
ML: Bills
Seattle Seahawks (6-10) @ Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
The Cardinals came away with a big win on the road over the Cowboys last week and put themselves in a position to still claim the NFC West title. The Seahawks are fresh off a drubbing over the Lions that saw Russell Wilson return to form and they'll be looking to spoil any hopes the Cardinals have of winning the division. Pick: Seahawks, 23-20.
Line: Cardinals -5.5
Spread: Seahawks
ML: Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers (9-7) @ L.A. Rams (12-4)
This is a big game for both these teams as the Niners need it to make the playoffs and the Rams need it to win the NFC West. I haven't like what I've seen from Matthew Stafford the last two weeks, committing six turnovers and I think eventually that has to catch up to this team after narrowly escaping in Baltimore last week. Pick: 49ers, 23-21.
Line: Rams -3.5
Spread: 49ers
ML: 49ers
L.A. Chargers (9-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders (9-7)
This one is for all the marbles as a win gets one of these AFC West rivals into the playoffs. Ironically, if the Colts manage to lose to the Jags, a tie would result in both the Chargers and Raiders getting in, but we won't touch that scenario right now. Derek Carr has shown up in some big spots this year, including a clutch win over the Colts last week and a surprise road win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. But, I like Justin Herbert to prevail here as I simply just think the Chargers have the better lineup top to bottom. Pick: Chargers, 24-20.
Line: Chargers -3
Spread: Chargers
ML: Chargers
2021 Results
Week 17
ATS: 9-7
ML: 12-4
Overall
ATS: 124-129-3
ML: 162-93-1
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