Week 17 NFL Picks

Tis' the season! Wishing all the readers a Happy Holidays as we gear up for Week 17 of the NFL season. Many games down the stretch have playoff implications and that starts on Christmas Day with the Ravens and Steelers both jockeying for position in the race for the AFC North. Let's dive into this week's game picks.

**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Dec. 28)

Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

There was plenty of talk that Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be able to play through his ankle last week and it didn't matter as he raised his own bar to beat the Texans. Now, the Chiefs hit the road to play the Steelers in a game with big AFC playoff implications hanging in the balance. Even if their leader isn't at full health, this Chiefs team will find a way with its depth, plus the Steelers defense looks in shambles. Pick: Chiefs, 24-17.

Line: Chiefs -2

ML: Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens (10-5) @ Houston Texans (9-6)

C.J. Stroud is struggling this year and it's a big reason why the Texans look vulnerable right now. They might have enough to hang on to the AFC South when all is said and done, but they are stumbling into the playoffs. I can't see this team rising to the occasion to slow down Lamar Jackson (something many teams have failed to do), and the Ravens can smell the AFC North crown. John Harbaugh's team will host a first-round playoff game come January. Pick: Ravens, 28-20.

Line: Ravens -6.5

ML: Ravens

Spread: Ravens

Seattle Seahawks (8-7) @ Chicago Bears (4-11)

The Seahawks need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs (that could also mean an NFC West title), and I would think Mike Macdonald's team answers the call on Thursday. It's a pretty simple recipe for this Seahawks team, run the football. The Bears rank 26th in the NFL, allowing 134.1 RYDS/G and if the road team gets a takeaway or two early on, This game could be wrapped up by halftime. Pick: Seahawks, 26-17.

Line: Seahawks -4.5

ML: Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks

Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) @ New England Patriots (3-12)

The Chargers will clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Pats, and this game very much feels like a defensive struggle. Look for Jim Harbaugh's team to pound the rock early and often to set the Pats' defense on its heels. There is some rain expected, and the Chargers will want to win this game in the trenches. Pick: Chargers, 23-13.

Line: Chargers -5.5

ML: Chargers

Spread: Chargers

Denver Broncos (9-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)

This game has the biggest playoff implications of the Saturday slate, with the Bengals needing a win to give themselves a shot at a wildcard spot in Week 18. On the other side, the Broncos likely clinch a playoff spot with a win here and will need to do so against one of the league's hottest offenses in recent weeks. Pick: Bengals, 23-16.

Line: Bengals -3

ML: Bengals

Spread: Bengals

Arizona Cardinals (7-8) @ Los Angeles Rams (9-6)

The Rams are nearly a touchdown favorite against their division rival Cards and are looking to clinch the NFC West with a win on Saturday night. The Cards have proven to be scrappy all year, and they will stay in this game, it could come down to a late field goal to seal the win for the Rams. Pick: Rams, 26-23.

Line: Rams -6.5

ML: Rams

Spread: Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts (7-8) @ New York Giants (2-13)

The Colts can't catch the Texans for the AFC South crown, but they're still hanging on by a thread in the AFC wildcard race. It continues with a win on the road this week and the key to their success is sticking with the ground game and Jonathan Taylor -- expect another big game from him. Pick: Colts, 26-16.

Line: Colts -7.5

ML: Colts

Spread: Colts

New York Jets (4-11) @ Buffalo Bills (12-3)

The Bills are virtually locked into the second seed in the AFC, so this could be a bit of an unmotivated performance from the team this week. Remember, they started slow last week at home to the Patriots, who don't have the same offensive weapons as the Jets. Pick: Bills, 27-20.

Line: Bills -10

ML: Bills

Spread: Jets

Tennessee Titans (3-12) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)

Neither of these teams likely wants a win for fear of weakening their draft position, but the show must go on and the bottom feeders of the AFC South renew rivalries this week. I like the Titans here to even out the season series in what will likely be the toughest game to watch in Week 17. Pick: Titans, 16-13.

Line: Jaguars -1

ML: Titans

Spread: Titans

Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) @ New Orleans Saints (5-10)

The Raiders are surprisingly road favorites in this matchup and that's likely due to the list of injuries continuing to grow for the Saints. Despite that, I like the home side here in a game that likely won't feature much offense. Pick: Saints, 17-14.

Line: Raiders -1

ML: Saints

Spread: Saints

Carolina Panthers (4-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

The Bucs let one slip away last week against the Cowboys and because of it, they find themselves in a dead lock for the NFC South with the Falcons. The Bucs need some help to make the playoffs, and will need to win out to do so. This game could be close throughout as the Panthers have played some tough football down the stretch. Pick: Buccaneers, 26-19.

Line: Buccaneers -8

ML: Buccaneers

Spread: Panthers

Dallas Cowboys (7-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)

This spread is just a bit high for my liking this week as the Eagles will be without Jalen Hurts as he recovers from a concussion. I thought Kenny Pickett played well enough to win last week, but the team settled for too many field goals and this Cowboys defense has found new motivation to close out the year. Pick: Eagles, 24-20.

Line: Eagles -7.5

ML: Eagles

Spread: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (7-8) @ Cleveland Browns (3-12)

The Dolphins have been officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they still have plenty to play for down the stretch and mainly for their head coach Mike McDaniel. If this game were in Miami, I'd lean towards the Fins covering here, but the colder elements could play a factor and stranger things have happened in the Dawg Pound. Pick: Dolphins, 20-17.

Line: Dolphins -6.5

ML: Dolphins

Spread: Browns

Green Bay Packers (11-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-2)

The Packers have some key defensive injuries heading into this game and that should open things up for Sam Darnold and the Vikings offense. However, I've seen Jordan Love rise to the occasion before and think this Packers team can get a tough road win and shatter any hopes of a Vikings' division title. Pick: Packers, 27-24.

Line: Vikings -1

ML: Packers

Spread: Packers

Atlanta Falcons (8-7) @ Washington Commanders (10-5)

The Sunday night game could have been a homecoming for Kirk Cousins in Washington, however, rookie Michael Penix Jr. will make his second straight start. I don't like the questionable tag on Drake London for this game and therefore, I'm going to side with the Commanders here in a game that could clinch them a playoff spot. Pick: Commanders, 26-20.

Line: Commanders -3.5

ML: Commanders

Spread: Commanders

Detroit Lions (13-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

Dan Campbell doesn't seem concerned about resting any players in this game ahead of next week's potential matchup with the Vikings for first place in the division. The Niners have nothing to play for, but this kind of feels like a trap game for the Lions, so I'm expecting it to be close. Pick: Lions, 24-21.

Line: Lions -3.5

ML: Lions

Spread: 49ers

Results

Week 16

ML: 11-5

ATS: 9-7

Overall

ML: 162-78 (67.5%)

ATS: 129-107-4 (53.8%)