It's crunch time in the NFL playoff race as we get set for the final two weeks of the season and there is plenty hanging in the balance. The AFC South and NFC South have yet to be decided and there has been some movement in the wildcard race in recent weeks. Let's dive into the Week 17 game picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Dec. 30)
New York Jets (6-9) @ Cleveland Browns (10-5)
The Browns have been the story throughout the second half of the season and at the center of it all is veteran Joe Flacco. At 38, he has turned back the clock, playing at a Super Bowl caliber level (he's been here before) and has this team with their eyes on the playoffs. It sounds crazy, but with a win and a bit of help this weekend, the Browns could be playing for the AFC North crown and the top seed in Week 18. Pick: Browns, 24-13.
Line: Browns -7.5
ML: Browns
Spread: Browns
Detroit Lions (11-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-5)
Just a few weeks ago, this game was pegged on the schedule as a potential battle for the top seed in the NFC. That's not the case anymore after a Cowboys loss to the Bills two weeks ago, but it still has some playoff implications. The Cowboys are undefeated at home this year and will look to finish that way, but don't be surprised if Dan Campbell's group pulls off the "upset". Pick: Cowboys, 30-27.
Line: Cowboys -5.5
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Lions
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)
The Eagles are in control of the NFC East with a pair of soft games to close out their schedule against the Cards and Giants. This one could be interesting with Jonathan Gannon returning to Philly and he might have a recipe to slow down Jalen Hurts, we'll see. Pick: Eagles, 27-16.
Line: Eagles -12
ML: Eagles
Spread: Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons (7-8) @ Chicago Bears (6-9)
By some miracle, the Falcons are still in the playoff hunt despite Arthur Smith's coaching gaffes this season. You could make the argument that with a loss on Sunday, he will be relieved of his duties. The Bears will play out the year and see what they have with Justin Fields, as a big decision looms ahead of the NFL Draft. Pick: Bears, 21-17.
Line: Bears -2.5
ML: Bears
Spread: Bears
Carolina Panthers (2-13) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Trevor Lawrence will sit this game out, marking the first time he has done so in his football career. The Jags are clinging to the AFC South lead and after watching the Panthers give the Packers all they could handle last week, I think this game comes down to a late kick. Pick: Jaguars, 20-17.
Line: Jaguars -4
ML: Jaguars
Spread: Panthers
Los Angeles Rams (8-7) @ New York Giants (5-10)
The Rams might be the hottest team in the NFC right now and are inching closer to a playoff berth. The Giants have played some tough games in recent weeks, so a West Coast team coming over for a 1 pm kickoff could present some challenges. I think Matthew Stafford gets it done down the stretch. Pick: Rams, 26-21.
Line: Rams -6
ML: Rams
Spread: Giants
Las Vegas Raiders (7-8) @ Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
The Raiders continue to play great defense under Antonio Pierce and came away with a big upset on Christmas Day over the Chiefs. This is another tough spot travelling to the East Coast on a short week, but I think the Raiders hang in this game. The Colts are desperate, trying to setup a big Week 18 showdown for their division. Pick: Colts, 19-16.
Line: Colts -4
ML: Colts
Spread: Raiders
Miami Dolphins (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
This game is for the AFC's top seed, featuring two fast-paced offenses. The Dolphins, however, will be without Jaylen Waddle in this matchup and that will put some added pressure on Tua Tagovailoa. The Ravens have a chance to clinch home field here and I think Lamar Jackson adds to his MVP candidacy. Pick: Ravens, 24-17.
Line: Ravens -3
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
New England Patriots (4-11) @ Buffalo Bills (9-6)
The Bills control their own destiny, winners of three straight and looking to clear a path to the playoffs. The recipe is to continue running the ball, led by James Cook, and as long as Josh Allen limits the turnovers this team will be a tough out in January. Pick: Bills, 28-16.
Line: Bills -14
ML: Bills
Spread: Patriots
New Orleans Saints (7-8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
This is a big NFC South showdown as the Bucs have a chance to mark their stamp on the division, while sending the Saints packing. It's a tough hill to climb for the Saints as they will be without Marshon Lattimore and Michael Thomas, plus Alvin Kamara is a game-time decision as he battles an illness.
Line: Buccaneers -2.5
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers (11-4) @ Washington Commanders (4-11)
The Niners were embarrassed on home field by the Ravens last week, and much of that can be attributed to Brock Purdy's mistakes. The young signal caller threw four picks and didn't really give his team a shot to win that game. They still hold the top seed in the NFC and can write the ship here with a win over the Commanders. Pick: 49ers, 24-14.
Line: 49ers -13.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: Commanders
Tennessee Titans (5-10) @ Houston Texans (8-7)
The Texans will get rookie C.J. Stroud back for this game and it couldn't come at a better time in the thick of the AFC South race. This is the second time in three weeks that these two teams will play, so I would imagine the Titans come out swinging in hopes of playing spoiler. Pick: Texans, 23-20.
Line: Texans -4
ML: Texans
Spread: Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
The Steelers pulled off some Christmas magic last week and will be looking for more in their bag of tricks against the Seahawks. I think Pete Carroll's team grinds this out at home as they take one step closer to a playoff berth. Pick: Seahawks, 20-17.
Line: Seahawks -4
ML: Seahawks
Spread: Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
The Chiefs' offense is in shambles right now. They have no consistency and look like a shadow of their usual selves. It starts with Patrick Mahomes and his decision-making as it's getting a bit too gimmicky and he needs to get back to basics. I think they figure out here after coming out flat last week and they'll need some turnovers from their defense. Pick: Chiefs, 24-17.
Line: Chiefs -6.5
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) @ Denver Broncos (7-8)
The Broncos made headlines this week with the news that they are benching Russell Wilson after he was reluctant to restructure his contract. It's pretty clear this is it for Wilson and he will find a new home next year. What that means for the Broncos, I have no idea? Pick: Broncos, 23-20.
Line: Broncos -3.5
ML: Broncos
Spread: Chargers
Green Bay Packers (7-8) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
This is a pivotal NFC North matchup to close out the week as both of these teams are trying to stay in the wildcard hunt. I don't particularly love that Jaire Alexander will sit this game out, which should give Justin Jefferson even more space to flourish. Pick: Vikings, 23-21.
Line: Vikings -1
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Results
Week 16
ML: 9-7
ATS: 5-10-1
Overall
ML: 159-81
ATS: 135-92-13
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