Week 17 NFL Picks

We're into the final two weeks of the regular season and there are some tight races forming in both the AFC and NFC playoff pictures. The most notable at this point is in the AFC North as it's anyone's guess who comes out on top in the division there (we could see a scenario where the Bengals and Browns meet in Week 18 with the division on the line). And, in the NFC, everybody is chasing the Packers for home field advantage and it's looking very likely that the road to the Super Bowl will run through Lambeau Field.

**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Sunday)

Atlanta Falcons (7-8) @ Buffalo Bills (9-6)

The Bills came up big last week on the road, beating the Patriots to take the lead in the AFC East. Now, they're at home to a Falcons team that continues to surprise in the NFC wildcard race and must win out to have a shot at the playoffs. This is a big line for the home side and the fact that the Falcons are getting two scores on the road here must be a result of a dome team playing outdoors in December here. At any rate, this looks like a backdoor cover situation regardless of Josh Allen and the offense likely being able to move the ball with relative ease. Pick: Bills, 31-17.

Line: Bills -14.5

Spread: Falcons

ML: Bills

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-13) @ New England Patriots (9-6)

Bill Belichick's team has dropped two games in a row and this matchup at home with the Jags seems like a layup. Since firing Urban Meyer, the Jags are still a dysfunctional group and the loss of James Robinson to an Achilles injury puts another damper on this offense. Look for Belichick to dial up some disguised blitzes as he gets another opportunity to feast on a rookie quarterback, something he's become all too familiar with. Belichick's teams are 24-6 against rookie signal-callers and an impressive 14-0 in Foxborough -- I don't think this trend stops this Sunday. Pick: Patriots, 34-13.

Line: Patriots -17

Spread: Patriots

ML: Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)

This is the game of the weekend right here as the Chiefs look to solidify home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Bengals try to wrap up the AFC North with a victory. It looks like the Chiefs will get Travis Kelce back for this game after he was activated from the Covid-19 list and Tyreek Hill might be closer to full health after battling through his own symptoms last week. The Bengals certainly bring a lot of energy to the field and this duel between Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes should feature plenty of fireworks. I see the Chiefs winning this in the final minutes. Pick: Chiefs, 30-27.

Line: Chiefs -3.5

Spread: Bengals

ML: Chiefs

L.A. Rams (11-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-7)

The Rams control their own destiny in the NFC West after a win over the Vikings last week -- Matthew Stafford didn't play his best football, throwing three interceptions -- and will look to create some more distance from the Cardinals on Sunday. Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to an ankle injury, as Tyler Huntley will get the start. After being embarrassed by the Bengals last week, I think John Harbaugh's team will be ready to play at home as they desperately look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Pick: Rams, 24-20.

Line: Rams -6.5

Spread: Ravens

ML: Rams

Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (9-6)

This game has swung significantly from where it was at the beginning of the week and had all the drama from the Colts calling up Philip Rivers to potentially start after the fear that Carson Wentz would miss this game due to the Covid-19 protocol. The two bigger headlines to me anyway are the activations of both Darius Leonard and Quenton Nelson from the Covid-19 list, which is a huge boost to this team on both sides of the ball. The closer that offensive line can be to full health, the better for Jonathan Taylor. Wentz has been cleared to play in this game, which should bring a smile to Colts' fans faces. Pick: Colts, 27-17.

Line: Colts -8

Spread: Colts

ML: Colts

Miami Dolphins (8-7) @ Tennessee Titans (10-5)

Another game with big playoff implications in the AFC as the Dolphins look for their eighth straight win to hold a tight grip on a wildcard spot, while the Titans are trying to lock up the AFC South with a win today. Mike Vrabel has got some gritty performances out of his group in the absence of Derrick Henry and they've played better defensively as of late. Speaking of defense, Brian Flores has the Dolphins playing their best yet and I think this could be a tough day for Ryan Tannehill. Pick: Titans, 21-17.

Line: Titans -3

Spread: Titans

ML: Titans

N.Y. Giants (4-11) @ Chicago Bears (5-10)

This is a real barnburner and maybe the only surprise storyline heading into it is the fact that Matt Nagy hasn't been let go by the Bears. Andy Dalton will get the start in place of the injured Justin Fields. Will this be a revenge spot for Mike Glennon? Unlikely. Pick: Bears, 23-16.

Line: Bears -6.5

Spread: Bears

ML: Bears

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) @ Washington Football Team (6-9)

The Eagles' playoff aspirations could be resolved today with a win and losses by the Saints and Vikings. Taylor Heinicke probably played his worst game as an NFL starter last week in Dallas and although he will be motivated to put it behind him in front of the home crowd today, I can't see the Eagles losing this game. Jalen Hurts is too elusive in the pocket and the Washington defense fell apart last week on the field and the sideline. Pick: Eagles, 24-17.

Line: Eagles -5.5

Spread: Eagles

ML: Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) @ N.Y. Jets (4-11)

The Bucs steam rolled the Panthers last week (to nobody's surprise) and now get a cupcake matchup on the road against the Jets. With Chris Godwin lost for the year and Mike Evans expected to be back in a limited role today, I think you'll see a lot from the run game again this week and Rob Gronkowski will likely be Tom Brady's favorite red zone target. Pick: Buccaneers, 27-16.

Line: Buccaneers -14

Spread: Jets

ML: Buccaneers

Denver Broncos (7-8) @ L.A. Chargers (8-7)

The Chargers laid an absolute egg last week, losing to the Texans in pretty embarrassing fashion. Luckily for them, they still remain alive in the AFC playoff race and get a second chance against the division rival Broncos. Not really sure what to make of this game as I think the Chargers are the better of the two teams on paper, but the Broncos should be able to run the ball pretty easily against this front seven and keep the chains moving. Pick: Chargers, 27-23.

Line: Chargers -7.5

Spread: Broncos

ML: Chargers

Houston Texans (4-11) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-7)

The Texans surprised everyone last week with a win over the Chargers in what appeared to be Davis Mills' official arrival on the NFL scene. Now, they have a chance to play spoiler against the Niners, who will start Trey Lance under center. I'm not as confident in Lance as others and this line seems pretty hefty to me, to be honest. The Texans have played some tough games this year and should be able to cover this spread. Pick: 49ers, 23-17.

Line: 49ers -13

Spread: Texans

ML: 49ers

Arizona Cardinals (10-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (11-4)

The Cowboys are playing meaningful football in January once again and the fact that this is a home game today makes me lean heavily in their direction. The splits are pretty clear this season as Dak Prescott has a 20:2 TD:INT ratio at home, but a 9:8 ratio on the road. The Cardinals seem to be a shell of their former selves (losing DeAndre Hopkins on offense can have that affect) and the Cowboys' defense is getting healthy at the right time. This is a potential wildcard weekend matchup and I think the Cards have run out of gas down the stretch here. Pick: Cowboys, 30-23.

Line: Cowboys -6.5

Spread: Cowboys

ML: Cowboys

Carolina Panthers (5-10) @ New Orleans Saints (7-8)

The season is on the line for the Saints as they need to win out and get some help in order to make the playoffs. Taysom Hill is back under center and I would expect Sean Payton to get Alvin Kamara involved early and often against the Panthers. Give me the home team in a blowout. Pick: Saints, 27-14.

Line: Saints -6.5

Spread: Saints

ML: Saints

Detroit Lions (2-12-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-10)

The Lions have proven to be a tough team to play against the last three weeks and the Seahawks are just not in unison, letting last week's game slip away at home to the Bears. It feels like a changing of the guard in Seattle and there will be a lot of speculation heading into the offseason about Russell Wilson's future with the team. With all the distractions going on, I think the Lions give them a scare today. Pick: Seahawks, 20-17.

Line: Seahawks -8

Spread: Lions

ML: Seahawks

Minnesota Vikings (7-8) @ Green Bay Packers (12-3)

This was an intriguing matchup until it was announced that Kirk Cousins will sit out due to the Covid-19 protocols. It looks like the road goes through Lambeau Field this year to get to the Super Bowl as the Packers should coast in this game and lock up home field advantage. Pick: Packers, 28-14.

Line: Packers -13

Spread: Packers

ML: Packers

Cleveland Browns (7-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)

It couldn't get any worse for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers last week as they were embarrassed on the road by the Chiefs. Really, this is a last gasp for both of these teams as they fight to stay alive in the AFC North race. Big Ben has already announced that he's hanging up his cleats after this season and I think the Browns will play the more desperate football this week and walk away with the win. Depending on how the Bengals play against the Chiefs, we could be looking at a Brown and Bengals matchup in Week 18 with the AFC North crown on the line. Pick: Browns, 21-17.

Line: Browns -3

Spread: Browns

ML: Browns

2021 Results

Week 16

ATS: 6-10

ML: 11-5

Overall

ATS: 115-122-3

ML: 150-89-1