Week 16 NFL Picks

We're approaching the final three weeks of the season and the playoff picture in both conferences is getting interesting. There will be some crucial games down the stretch, kicked off this week by a big matchup between the 49ers and Titans, plus the Chiefs and Packers look to maintain home field advantage as they look for wins this week. Let's dive into the game picks for Week 16.

**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Saturday)

San Francisco 49ers (8-6) @ Tennessee Titans (9-5)

This is a great game to kick the week off as both these teams are in the thick of their respective playoff races. The Niners are trying to hold off a few teams behind them in the wildcard race, while the Titans have suddenly seen their AFC South division lead shrink to one game. Looks like Julio Jones fully practiced on Wednesday and will be ready to suit up in this game. Jimmy Garoppolo has played some good football as of late and I like the Niners to keep rolling here. Pick: 49ers, 24-20.

Line: 49ers -3.5

Spread: 49ers

ML: 49ers

Cleveland Browns (7-7) @ Green Bay Packers (11-3)

It looks like Baker Mayfield will be cleared from the COVID-19 list at some point this week, but I'm not sure it's going to matter on the road here at Lambeau Field. The Browns will again be without Kareem Hunt as he continues to nurse an ankle injury. The offense really runs through Nick Chubb at this point and despite a solid performance last week, it still wasn't enough to beat the Raiders. Aaron Rodgers seems to take things to another level at home in December and I think he puts the final nail in the coffin on the Browns' playoff hopes. Pick: Packers, 27-17.

Line: Packers -7.5

Spread: Packers

ML: Packers

Indianapolis Colts (8-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (10-4)

The Cardinals seem to be falling from grace pretty quickly here and that started with DeAndre Hopkins' season-ending knee injury. Now, it looks like James Conner and Rondale Moore could be in jeopardy of missing Saturday's tilt with the Colts. Speaking of which, the Colts are red hot having won five of their last six games, including victories over the Bills and Patriots. I think Frank Reich's squad is just simply the better team right now and Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the NFL right now, so he should continue to bulldoze the competition. Pick: Colts, 24-17.

Line: Cardinals -2.5

Spread: Colts

ML: Colts

Baltimore Ravens (8-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

Tyler Huntley has played well in Lamar Jackson's absence -- he remained sidelined at Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury -- and nearly pulled off the upset over the Packers last week. John Harbaugh's teams have proven resilient during his tenure, but I'm wondering if we're seeing a changing of the guard in the AFC North as the young, upstart Bengals keep hanging around this year. This game very much hinges on Lamar's availability and with the uncertainty that he suits up, I'll lean towards the home squad here. Pick: Bengals, 21-17.

Line: Bengals -4.5

Spread: Ravens

ML: Bengals

Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ New England Patriots (9-5)

This is a big matchup in the AFC East as the Pats already got one over on the Bills a few weeks ago. Now, the Bills are the more desperate team, looking to even the score. But, after last week's loss to the Colts, can we really see Bill Belichick being unprepared for this one? One thing to monitor is the Pats' backfield as Rhamondre Stevenson skipped Wednesday's practice due to an illness and Damien Harris was limited as he deals with a quad injury. Despite this, I still like the Pats to show up defensively. Pick: Patriots, 20-17.

Line: Patriots -2.5

Spread: Patriots

ML: Patriots

Detroit Lions (2-11-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-8)

The Lions have won two of their last three games and now head out on the road against a Falcons team hanging in the NFC wildcard race by a fingernail. One thing we know about the Falcons is that they've been inconsistent this season, so it wouldn't shock me if Dan Campbell's squad pulls out the victory in this one, making it three of their last four games with a win. The key will be D'Andre Swift's health as he's been dealing with a shoulder injury. Pick: Falcons, 24-21.

Line: Falcons -6.5

Spread: Lions

ML: Falcons

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) @ N.Y. Jets (3-11)

This is the tire fire game of the week right here as both these teams are in the conversation for the first overall pick in next year's draft. The Jags were outdone by the Texans last week after firing Urban Meyer and the only thing that Robert Saleh's squad is playing for right now is pride. I'll lean towards the home team here, but don't expect too many fireworks. Pick: Jets, 20-17.

Line: Jets -1.5

Spread: Jets

ML: Jets

L.A. Chargers (8-6) @ Houston Texans (3-11)

The Chargers let another 4th quarter lead over the Chiefs slip through their grasp last week and as a result they need this game in a big way to bounce back in the AFC playoff race. The big news for them is the addition of Austin Ekeler to the COVID-19 list, which puts him at a risk of missing this game. Despite that, it shouldn't matter as the Chargers have more than enough weapons on offense to pull this game out. Pick: Chargers, 31-17.

Line: Chargers -10.5

Spread: Chargers

ML: Chargers

L.A. Rams (10-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (7-7)

The Rams picked up a huge win over the Cards last week and now we have a two-team race for first place in the NFC West. Traditionally, Minnesota has been a tough place to play in with the looming crowd noise, but this Rams defense is rolling right now and I think they continue to make life tough for Kirk Cousins. If the Vikings can get Dalvin Cook some open space thought, watch out. Pick: Rams, 27-20.

Line: Rams -3.5

Spread: Rams

ML: Rams

N.Y. Giants (4-10) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)

Another week and another divisional matchup for the Eagles. They pulled out the win on Tuesday over Washington and on short rest, they will look to another stepping stone in the Giants. This is a tricky game considering the Eagles will be playing on four days rest also factoring in that Miles Sanders was a surprise absence during Wednesday's practice as he deals with a quad injury. Pick: Eagles, 23-14.

Line: Eagles -10

Spread: Giants

ML: Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) @ Carolina Panthers (5-9)

Tom Brady once again showed the Saints just simply have his number, falling to 0-4 against them in the regular season with last week's 9-0 loss. This is a get right spot for Brady and the Bucs against a struggling Panthers team. Cam Newton likely should have stayed at home on the couch rather than returning this season because I think he's in store for a tough afternoon against this hungry Bucs defense. Pick: Buccaneers, 27-16.

Line: Buccaneers -10

Spread: Buccaneers

ML: Buccaneers

Chicago Bears (4-10) @ Seattle Seahawks (5-9)

The season is lost for both these teams and the real question heading into this game right now is how much longer of a shelf life does Matt Nagy have in Chicago? Russell Wilson and the offense haven't really been clicking since he returned from his nagging hand injury, but I think Justin Fields may be forced into some turnovers here that will ultimately be the difference in this game. Pick: Seahawks, 21-13.

Line: Seahawks -6.5

Spread: Seahawks

ML: Seahawks

Denver Broncos (7-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)

This is really a last ditch effort for both of these teams to keep their playoff hopes alive in the AFC. The Raiders came away with a narrow victory on Monday thanks to a Daniel Carlson field goal with time expiring. However, they lost arguably their best defensive player in Jonathan Abram, who will miss the rest of the year with a dislocated shoulder. I don't really have much confidence in Drew Lock at the moment, so I'll side with the Raiders here who will once again rely on the leg of Carlson to pull this one out. Pick: Raiders, 23-20.

Line: Raiders -1

Spread: Raiders

ML: Raiders

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)

This game is rather interesting as the Chiefs have reportedly placed Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker on the COVID-19 list. For now, I like the Steelers to cover this spread (and maybe win the game outright on the back of a defensive effort), but it wouldn't surprise me if this game gets bumped to Tuesday. Pick: Chiefs, 21-17.

Line: Chiefs -8.5

Spread: Steelers

ML: Chiefs

Washington Football Team (6-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a victory here and the only thing left to think about will be how much rest they want to give their players ahead of the playoffs. But, we saw two weeks ago that Washington hung around in this matchup and it appears Taylor Heinicke will be able to play as he returns from the COVID-19 list. Dak Prescott and the offense seem off these past few weeks and that's something they will need to be firing on all cylinders come January. Pick: Cowboys, 24-17.

Line: Cowboys -10

Spread: WFT

ML: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (7-7) @ New Orleans Saints (7-7)

Tua Tagovailoa looked sluggish in the first half last week against the Jets as the Dolphins fell into an early 10-0 hole. They can't afford to start slow on the road here against the Saints as that defense will certainly take advantage of the mistakes. This has the makings for a real defensive struggle and with the news that Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian will miss this game, I'll look for a strong defensive effort by the Saints to lift rookie Ian Book to a victory. Pick: Saints, 20-17.

Line: Dolphins -2.5

Spread: Saints

ML: Saints

2021 Results

Week 15

ATS: 9-7

ML: 11-5

Overall

ATS: 109-112-3

ML: 139-84-1