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Week 16 NFL Picks

Updated: Dec 27, 2020

**All betting lines are from bet365.com**


Minnesota Vikings (6-8) @ New Orleans Saints (10-4)


It was pretty clear that Sean Payton rushed Drew Brees back last week. It was probably the unsettling play of Taysom Hill the week before in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, but whatever the case, Brees didn't look comfortable. Now, he gets a soft Vikings secondary on a short week, but it wouldn't shock me if we see a back-and-forth shootout here considering Kirk Cousins has some great wideouts on the other side of the field. Saints, 31-24.


Line: Saints -6.5

Spread: Saints -6.5

ML: Saints


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) @ Detroit Lions (5-9)


By all accounts this is a huge mismatch on paper as the Lions don't have a cornerback to cover any of the big three on the Bucs (Jeff Okudah underwent groin surgery and is out the rest of the year). Tom Brady should be able to torch this Lions secondary and Matthew Stafford is hanging on by a thread to finish out the season, so I don't expect it to be close. Bucs, 31-17.


Line: Bucs -9.5

Spread: Bucs -9.5

ML: Bucs


San Francisco 49ers (5-9) @ Arizona Cardinals (8-6)


Kyler Murray appears to be back to his old self, which is great news for the Cardinals as they go for a playoff push in the final two weeks. A lot of people will write off the Niners in this one, but they probably should have beat the Dallas Cowboys last week if not for four turnovers. With Nick Mullens potentially headed for the knife (he suffered a UCL injury last week), it will be C.J. Beathard under center for the Niners in this game -- that doesn't exactly instill much confidence, but he will likely be conservative with the ball. Cardinals, 21-17.


Line: Cardinals -5

Spread: 49ers +5

ML: Cardinals


Miami Dolphins (9-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)


Tua Tagovailoa pulled off an impressive win last week against the wizard, Bill Belichick, while missing his top four targets. This kept the Dolphins in the playoff hunt and they can now turn their attention to a Raiders team that suffered a heartbreaking loss to the L.A. Chargers in overtime on Thursday night. Jon Gruden seems to be throwing curveballs in the media about who his starting quarterback will be, but I think Marcus Mariota gets the nod and the Dolphins will be ready. Dolphins, 23-17.


Line: Dolphins -3

Spread: Dolphins -3

ML: Dolphins


Atlanta Falcons (4-10) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)


The Falcons surprisingly kept pace with the Bucs last week, but of course, they blew a large 4th quarter lead (stop me if you've seen this before) as Brady connected on a late touchdown with Antonio Brown. Julio Jones will sit this one out, so that's a gaping hole for Matt Ryan in this offense and Tyreek Hill has been hampered by a hamstring injury, but should suit up for this game. Even if Hill isn't 100%, Patrick Mahomes has plenty of options in the passing game and will be too much for the Falcons. Chiefs, 36-23.


Line: Chiefs -11

Spread: Chiefs -11

ML: Chiefs


Chicago Bears (7-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)


The Bears jumped out to a 5-1 start before losing six straight games to fall out of the NFC playoff picture. But, thanks to the Cardinals laying an egg on Saturday, the Bears suddenly find themselves firmly planted in the wildcard conversation and with a win here, they take control of the final playoff spot in the NFC. Lots of talk about a look ahead spot here with the Green Bay Packers on deck next week, but I think the Bears lean on David Montgomery and get it done. Bears, 23-16.


Line: Bears -8.5

Spread: Jaguars +8.5

ML: Bears


Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) @ Houston Texans (4-10)


What in the world was that last week from the Bengals? They absolutely shoved the running game down the Pittsburgh Steelers' throats en route to a massive upset. Now, they head out on the road against a struggling Texans team (does this line seem high to anyone else?). The Texans don't do anything well defensively and I don't see why the Bengals can't have success running the ball with Giovani Bernard. Texans, 21-17.


Line: Texans -7.5

Spread: Bengals +7.5

ML: Texans


Cleveland Browns (10-4) @ N.Y. Jets (1-13)


The Browns got some discouraging news late in the week as linebacker B.J. Goodson tested positive for the coronavirus, subsequently keeping Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and KhaDarel Hodge out of this game because they were close contacts. That means a heavy dose of the run game for the Browns, which should suit them just fine as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are more than capable of expanded roles. Browns, 22-15.


Line: Browns -6.5

Spread: Browns -6.5

ML: Browns


Indianapolis Colts (10-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)


This is the game of the week and should be as physical as it gets from start to finish. The Steelers have dropped three in a row and look like a shadow of their former selves that once had people talking about an undefeated season. Man, this Colts team looks built for a deep playoff run if they can win one of their last two games. They run the ball well and since DeForest Buckner returned to the lineup, their defense has new life. The Steelers have not been able to find their identity in the ground game this year and it will be a difficult task once again, but they are extremely desperate right now and I think Mike Tomlin can will them to a victory. Steelers, 20-17.


Line: Colts -1

Spread: Steelers +1

ML: Steelers


N.Y. Giants (5-9) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5)


Just a few weeks ago we were talking about the Giants playing some sound defensive football, especially against the Seattle Seahawks, and going on a run to close out the year and claim the NFC East crown. Well, they have fallen hard and it started with that loss to the Cardinals. Now, they get a red hot Ravens squad and Lamar Jackson, who looks poised to carry this team into the playoffs and do some damage. Ravens, 27-13.


Line: Ravens -10

Spread: Ravens -10

ML: Ravens


Carolina Panthers (4-10) @ Washington Football Team (6-8)


The Football Team has been a victim of poor QB play in recent weeks and it starts with Dwayne Haskins. Alex Smith has an outside shot at playing in this game, but how healthy will his leg be? They will get a boost with Antonio Gibson returning from a toe injury, but Terry McLaurin will sit this game out, leaving a big hole on the outside. I think Teddy Bridgewater will do enough in this game to scrape out a win despite losing Russell Okung at tackle. Panthers, 19-16.


Line: Panthers -1

Spread: Panthers -1

ML: Panthers


Denver Broncos (5-9) @ L.A. Chargers (5-9)


Take your pick with this game, seriously. The Broncos beat the Chargers in a Week 8 thriller, 31-30, that saw Drew Lock march his team down field for the late score. It was one of several games the Chargers blew a 4th quarter lead in this year and they are probably the hardest team to predict each week. Phillip Lindsay was placed on the IR this week, so Melvin Gordon should get plenty of work in the run game. Keenan Allen seems iffy for this game and if he does suit up, he will likely be limited. I'll say Justin Herbert exacts revenge on a 4th quarter drive of his own in this one. Chargers, 27-24.


Line: Chargers -2.5

Spread: Chargers -2.5

ML: Chargers


L.A. Rams (9-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-4)


Interestingly enough, the Rams have won nine of the last 13 meetings between these two teams. The Rams were stunned by the Jets last week and really took a hit to their playoff chances. That can all be erased with a win here on the road over the Seahawks and would give them control of the NFC West in the tiebreaker. However, Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS in same-season revenge games and I think he will have his team focused on an NFC West crown. Seahawks, 31-28.


Line: Seahawks -1.5

Spread: Seahawks -1.5

ML: Seahawks


Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (5-9)


What an intriguing matchup this has now become as both of these teams are back in the NFC East race. Not saying that's a good thing, but the winner of this game (if Washington loses) increases their chances of hosting a wildcard home game exponentially. Jalen Hurts will be looking to continue his magic from the last two games against a slightly improved Cowboys defense in recent weeks. The Cowboys have had too many kicks at the can to win this division, so I think this could be a giant letdown just like the Thanksgiving loss. Eagles, 26-21.


Line: Eagles -3

Spread: Eagles -3

ML: Eagles


Tennessee Titans (10-4) @ Green Bay Packers (11-3)


What a great matchup on Sunday Night Football. Derrick Henry will look to pound the Packers' interior front and control the clock. This will be key for the Titans to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, and, the weather may play in their favor as strong wind gusts are expected to play a factor in the passing game. It's hard for me to go against Rodgers in primetime and I think he will pull some magic out of the hat late in this game. Packers, 27-23.


Line: Packers -3

Spread: Packers -3

ML: Packers


Buffalo Bills (11-3) @ New England Patriots (6-8)


The Bills are absolutely rolling and already clinched the AFC East for the first time in forever and now it's all about holding onto that second seed. The Pats have absolutely nothing to play for and even if Bill Belichick comes up with a master plan to slow down Josh Allen, I still don't see it being enough to pull off the upset. Bills, 27-17.


Line: Bills -7

Spread: Bills -7

ML: Bills


Week 15 Results

Spread: 7-7-2

ML: 11-5

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