The playoff picture continues to shape up as we have quite the race in the AFC with a few teams surprisingly still in the hunt, the Colts and Texans. Meanwhile, the Pats' dismal season continues and the rumors are swirling that Bill Belichick may not be back with the team next year. Let's dive into the Week 14 picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Dec. 10)
New England Patriots (2-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
The Steelers suffered a bad loss to the Cardinals last week and desperately need a bounce back here to stay afloat in the AFC wildcard race. It's on Mike Tomlin to rally the troops here and it starts on defense with a great matchup against a Pats team struggling to move the ball. Pick: Steelers, 17-14.
Line: Steelers -5
ML: Steelers
Spread: Patriots
Carolina Panthers (1-11) @ New Orleans Saints (5-7)
This Saints team needs some life and I'm not sure Derek Carr is the guy to provide them that. It seems the fan base has had enough of Carr and are pushing for more Jameis Winston snaps under center. We'll see if this comes to fruition, but for now, they should lean heavily on Alvin Kamara. Pick: Saints, 21-17.
Line: Saints -5
ML: Saints
Spread: Panthers
Detroit Lions (9-3) @ Chicago Bears (4-8)
The Bears' defense has been lights out the past month and with Soldier Field historically being a tough place to play for road teams, I don't love this spot for the Lions. The Bears pushed them to the distance at home just a few weeks ago and this is where Dan Campbell's team might start to get complacent down the stretch. Pick: Lions, 23-20.
Line: Lions -3.5
ML: Lions
Spread: Bears
Houston Texans (7-5) @ New York Jets (4-8)
The Texans are a bit banged up right now, but still control some of their own destiny in the AFC playoff picture. We know the Jets' defense has proven to be difficult to play against throughout the year and this will be a test for rookie C.J. Stroud. Pick: Texans, 16-13.
Line: Texans -3.5
ML: Texans
Spread: Jets
Indianapolis Colts (7-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)
The Colts have really surprised me this season and Shane Steichen's play-calling is a big part of that. This is a pivotal game with playoff implications and despite the loss of Joe Burrow, I think this Bengals team can rally behind Jake Browning here. Pick: Bengals, 24-20.
Line: Bengals -2
ML: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (7-5)
The iron man streak looks like it will continue for Trevor Lawrence, despite reports that he suffered a high ankle sprain last week. Will he be a sitting duck for that Browns defensive front? If he can't be mobile, I have concerns about this offense. Pick: Browns, 24-20.
Line: Browns -1.5
ML: Browns
Spread: Browns
Los Angeles Rams (6-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
The Rams look really comfortable right now and the closest thing to that Super Bowl winning squad from two years ago. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are a problem on the outside for any secondary and the Ravens will have their work cut out for them this week. Despite that, I think Lamar Jackson finds a way to close this out late. Pick: Ravens, 27-20.
Line: Ravens -7.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
This is a tough game to call, I've been on the wrong side of the Bucs a few times this year and the Falcons are 4-2 at home. I'll lean towards the home squad here, but I'm not overly confident in Desmond Ridder. Pick: Falcons, 24-21.
Line: Falcons -2
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
The Raiders have played much more inspired since the coaching change to Antonio Pierce, but they need to solve their riddle at quarterback heading into next season. For the Vikings, they're hanging on by a thread in the NFC wildcard race and need this win badly. Pick: Raiders, 17-16.
Line: Vikings -3
ML: Raiders
Spread: Raiders
Seattle Seahawks (6-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
The Seahawks took the Cowboys to the brink last week and much of that had to do with Geno Smith's ability to stand tall in the pocket. They won't have him this week, which doesn't bode well for their chances of hanging in this game against a Niners team that many believe are the Super Bowl favorites. Pick: 49ers, 31-17.
Line: 49ers -13.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Buffalo Bills (6-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
I think many believe the Chiefs can turn this season around and still nab that top seed in the AFC going into the playoffs. Rightfully so, as you can never count Patrick Mahomes and company out. I think the Bills stun them here coming off their bye week and Josh Allen plays one of his cleaner games all season. Pick: Bills, 24-21.
Line: Chiefs -1.5
ML: Bills
Spread: Bills
Denver Broncos (6-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)
The Broncos have been scrappy in the second half of the season and Russell Wilson has really elevated his play. This is a game that features two teams headed in opposite directions, and Brandon Staley has seemingly lost the locker room. I think the Broncos roll here and continue their pursuit of a playoff spot. Pick: Broncos, 24-17.
Line: Chargers -2.5
ML: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
This is the biggest matchup of the week with possession of the NFC East lead hanging in the balance. The Eagles were handed a slice of humble pie by the Niners last week and this team seems to be stumbling a little bit heading into this game. I don't think anybody is playing better football than Dak Prescott right now and he should be able to slice through this Eagles secondary. Pick: Cowboys, 28-24.
Line: Cowboys -3
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys
Green Bay Packers (6-6) @ New York Giants (4-8)
The story in the Meadowlands in recent weeks has been all about rookie Tommy DeVito, as he's really given this Giants team a shot in the arm. The Packers find themselves in the thick of the NFC wildcard hunt and Jordan Love has played some inspiring football. Matt LaFleur is a perfect 14-0 in the month of December, I think that continues here. Pick: Packers, 24-20.
Line: Packers -6
ML: Packers
Spread: Giants
Tennessee Titans (4-8) @ Miami Dolphins (9-3)
The Dolphins have made a habit of beating up on teams with a losing record this year, and I see no reason why that doesn't continue here. The Titans have to be pleased with what they've seen from Will Levis so far and can build around him heading into next season. Pick: Dolphins, 28-16.
Line: Dolphins -13.5
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Titans
Results
Week 13
ML: 8-5
ATS: 8-5
Overall
ML: 129-64
ATS: 109-75-9
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