I thought the Bills got back on the right track during Thanksgiving, but Monday night proved that Bill Belichick still has the upper hand from a coaching perspective in the AFC East and now the AFC playoff picture is wide open. One thing we can take from the end of Week 13 is that Mac Jones seems to be mentally tough and ready for any obstacle in his way. Let's dive into Week 14...
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Thursday)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
The Steelers picked up a surprising win at home to the Ravens last week, and really it hinged on John Harbaugh going for two late in the 4th and coming up short. Now, we have a Thursday night tilt of pretty big importance as the Steelers look to keep pace in the AFC Wildcard race, while the Vikings have their backs against the wall and likely have to win out to make the playoffs. Pick: Vikings, 23-21.
Line: Vikings -3
Spread: Steelers
ML: Vikings
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-7)
Amazingly both of these teams still have a chance at making the playoffs, but with a loss, one of them will be put on the back burner. I don't really know what to make of this matchup after Cam Newton followed up a strong showing in Arizona with an absolute dud in his last start, eventually getting pulled against the Dolphins. Matt Ryan is a crafty veteran, but I'll side with the better defense here. Pick: Panthers, 20-17.
Line: Panthers -2.5
Spread: Panthers
ML: Panthers
Baltimore Ravens (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (6-6)
This is a tough matchup to call as the Ravens took a tough loss on the chin last week in Pittsburgh after a failed two point conversion attempt late to take the lead. The Browns are coming off their bye week, which couldn't have been better timed considering they needed the rest. Again, this comes down to if Baker Mayfield is healthy enough to make some key plays in this game down the stretch. I think having Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt fully healthy will go a long way for the Browns. Pick: Browns, 24-21.
Line: Browns -2.5
Spread: Browns
ML: Browns
Dallas Cowboys (8-4) @ Washington Football Team (6-6)
The Cowboys had a 4th quarter surge to pull away from the Saints last week, but man, something isn't clicking right now with this offense. It seems Kellen Moore is abandoning the run when needed -- we know Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee issue -- and relying on the passing attack too much at times. Tony Pollard seems to be their secret weapon and I really think they need to keep that in mind. Suddenly, Washington is back in the playoff mix and playing some strong football led by Taylor Heinicke's blue collar play. This will be a tough road game for Mike McCarthy's group, but I think they prevail. Pick: Cowboys, 23-20.
Line: Cowboys -4.5
Spread: WFT
ML: Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) @ Tennessee Titans (8-4)
This should be a cupcake matchup for the Titans, but I was a little bit alarmed at their performance at home to the Texans a couple weeks ago. Coming off a bye, Mike Vrabel's team should be ready for this matchup as they need the bounce back win to separate themselves further from the Colts in the AFC South. Not in love with the spread for this game as I think there is potential for a back door cover here. Pick: Titans, 28-20.
Line: Titans -8.5
Spread: Jaguars
ML: Titans
Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
The Raiders snapped a three-game losing streak by beating the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and rode that momentum into Week 13, only to fall short at home to Washington. Now, they're in a must-win spot at Arrowhead Stadium and it's worth pointing out that Derek Carr is 3-12 in his career against the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs continue to roll here at home and make it a fifth straight win. Pick: Chiefs, 26-17.
Line: Chiefs -10
Spread: Raiders
ML: Chiefs
New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ N.Y. Jets (3-9)
The Saints are pretty well done like dinner when it comes to the NFC playoff race and they're really just playing for pride now this late in the season. Taysom Hill will be back under center, making the most of his opportunity to prove he can be a reliable starting QB in this league. I think the Saints' defense shows up in this matchup and forces Zach Wilson into a couple turnovers to ultimately be the difference in the game. Pick: Saints, 24-17.
Line: Saints -5.5
Spread: Saints
ML: Saints
Seattle Seahawks (4-8) @ Houston Texans (2-10)
The Seahawks stood tall at home to the 49ers last week as it seems the rumors of a feud between Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf have subsided for now. This seems like a big spread on the road here and despite their record, we've seen the Texans play some tough matchups this year. I like the Seahawks to come away with a win here, but I'll lean towards the home side to cover. Pick: Seahawks, 24-20.
Line: Seahawks -8.5
Spread: Texans
ML: Seahawks
Detroit Lions (1-10-1) @ Denver Broncos (6-6)
Finally, FINALLY! The Lions got their first win of the year on a big time 4th down throw by Jared Goff with time expiring to beat the Vikings. How are they rewarded? They get a lovely trip to Mile High Stadium in December to face a playoff hungry Broncos squad. If you're thinking what I'm thinking, the Lions won't make it two in a row. Pick: Broncos, 23-16.
Line: Broncos -10
Spread: Lions
ML: Broncos
N.Y. Giants (4-8) @ L.A. Chargers (7-5)
What a win that was for the Chargers last week over the Bengals to get themselves back in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Justin Herbert showed up big time, throwing for 317 yards and three touchdowns to propel them to the win. Now, they're at home against a depleted Giants team with a chance to strengthen their grip on a playoff spot. It looks like Jake Fromm is going to get his first career start here, so I think it's open season for the Chargers' defense. Pick: Chargers, 30-14.
Line: Chargers -10
Spread: Chargers
ML: Chargers
Buffalo Bills (7-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)
Tough loss for the Bills on Monday night amidst those poor weather conditions. The Patriots threw the ball...three times...and the Bills still couldn't stop the run. Now, it's a road trip to play the defending Super Bowl champions and Leonard Fournette has been carving his way through opposing defenses in recent weeks. This would certainly be a statement win for the road squad here, but I just don't see it, I think they have a lot of problems on both sides of the ball right now. Pick: Buccaneers, 28-23.
Line: Buccaneers -3
Spread: Buccaneers
ML: Buccaneers
San Francisco 49ers (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Both these teams are coming off a loss from last week and quite frankly it's a tough game to call as they both need a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt. The Bengals have been up and down all year and I didn't think they would flop at home to the Chargers last week. This feels a little bit like two years ago when Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners walked into Cincinnati early in the year and stunned everybody -- I think they do it again. Pick: 49ers, 24-21.
Line: 49ers -1.5
Spread: 49ers
ML: 49ers
Chicago Bears (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Sunday night under the lights at Lambeau Field in December. This is an absolute lock for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers if you ask me. I think the spread is a little bit high here for a divisional opponent, but they won't lose this game in these elements. The Packers need this one coming off a bye if they want any chance at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Pick: 28-17.
Line: Packers -12.5
Spread: Bears
ML: Packers
L.A. Rams (8-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (10-2)
This is a great matchup on Monday night as the Rams will be looking to settle the score from a loss earlier in the year to the Cardinals. All the stars should be at full health for this one, so it wouldn't be surprising to me if this game hit the over on the points. The Rams need this win badly and I think Sean McVay will have his team coached up to play their best game of the year. Pick: Rams, 27-24.
Line: Cardinals -2.5
Spread: Rams
ML: Rams
2021 Results
Week 13
ATS: 4-10
ML: 9-5
Overall
ATS: 95-96-3
ML: 115-78-1
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