The NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape with some key matchups on tap for Week 14. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come off their bye looking to bounce back from a two-game losing streak, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills will clash on Sunday Night Football in a game that will have significant impact on the top of the AFC standings. Let's jump into this week's slate of games.
New England Patriots (6-6) @ L.A. Rams (8-4)
This is a rematch of two head coaches from Super Bowl LIII between Bill Belichick and Sean McVay. However, a lot has changed from two years ago, most notably that McVay will be preparing to stop Cam Newton instead of Tom Brady. The Pats come into this game after obliterating the L.A. Chargers last week 45-0 and fighting for their playoff lives. It's their last gasp at 6-6 and they likely have to win out for a shot at a wildcard spot.
The Rams have won three of their last four games (including wins over the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks) and very much control their destiny atop the NFC West at 8-4.
One thing the Rams do really well is bring pressure on the quarterback, sacking opposing QB's 36 times (T-4th in NFL) through 12 games. Newton hasn't thrown the ball well this year -- only five touchdown passes -- and I think he will have a difficult time dealing with the combination of Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd. I'll take the Rams, 24-17.
Line: Rams -5
Spread: Rams -5
ML: Rams
Arizona Cardinals (6-6) @ N.Y. Giants (5-7)
This is a tough game to pick. The Cardinals seem to be in a downward spiral right now having lost three straight games. Plus, Kyler Murray doesn't seem like his normal self, which could be due in large part to a potential shoulder injury in his throwing arm that has prevented him from topping 200 passing yards in his last two matchups. DeAndre Hopkins has been in and out of practice all week with a back ailment, so his status for this game will be worth monitoring.
The Giants come into this game red hot, riding a four-game winning streak that has put them back in the thick of the NFC East (or should we call it "least?") race. They are well coached under Joe Judge and the defense, under Patrick Graham, has been the biggest driving force behind their recent success. This defensive unit has held opponents to 20 points or less and racked up 12 sacks in that four-game span. The only cause for concern is that the Giants essentially won their "Super Bowl" last week by upsetting the Seattle Seahawks on the road and they could be emotionally drained from that big win. However, I'll ride the hot hand and I'm not sure Murray is fully healthy. Give me the Giants, 20-17.
Line: Cardinals -3
Spread: Giants +3
ML: Giants
Dallas Cowboys (3-9) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)
This one might as well be dubbed the "Toilet Bowl" for how poorly these two teams have played this year. It's likely going to be one of the least watched games this Sunday, but it has at least one meaningful story line with Andy Dalton returning to face his former team -- classic "revenge" game spot. Even though the Cowboys are 3-9, they somehow still remain in the NFC East conversation, but for all intents and purposes, their season is over. Lucky for them, the Bengals are even worse and will be throwing Brandon Allen to the wolves this week. I think Dalton plays well, so give me the Cowboys, 24-13.
Line: Cowboys -3
Spread: Cowboys -3
ML: Cowboys
Denver Broncos (4-8) @ Carolina Panthers (4-8)
It seems like the public is heavily on the Panthers in this matchup, and I'm not sure why? Head coach Matt Rhule announced that Christian McCaffrey would not return this week from a quad injury (and it's unclear if he will be back at all this season). Add to that, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Derrick Brown appear headed in the wrong direction of playing in this game after being added to the Covid-19 list.
Vic Fangio will have a gameplan for Teddy Bridgewater and that defense has been underrated at times this season. The Broncos will also get a boost with Phillip Lindsay back in the lineup and with Melvin Gordon in the mix, they should be able to lean on the run game in this one. I like the Broncos, 23-20.
Line: Panthers -3
Spread: Broncos +3
ML: Broncos
Houston Texans (4-8) @ Chicago Bears (5-7)
That Bears loss last week at home to the Detroit Lions was as bad as it gets. The offense was running smoothly and somehow the secondary imploded to blow a 10-point, 4th quarter lead. That's now six straight losses for the Bears, who at one point sat at 5-1 atop the NFC North and looked like a sleeper pick for the division.
Now, the red hot Deshaun Watson comes to town and despite not having his top target in Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks looking iffy for this game, I just can't take the Bears after that collapse. Watson has a flare for the dramatic and should be able to pull off some late game heroics to keep the Bears on their current slump. Texans, 21-20.
Line: Texans PK
Spread: Texans PK
ML: Texans
Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) @ Miami Dolphins (8-4)
This has the potential to be the game of the week with the powerhouse Chiefs travelling to Miami to give the Dolphins their biggest test so far this year. The Dolphins have been a pleasant surprise, now handing the reigns fully to Tua Tagovailoa under center and we will find out if he can go toe-to-toe with the gunslinger, Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs don't really have any weaknesses, considering their run defense has started to heat up the last month and with playmakers on the back end like Tyrann Mathieu, this might just be the defense that exposes Tua for a couple of turnovers. I think we're getting value on the Dolphins here at home and Brian Flores has that defense playing at a high level. Ultimately, this game comes down to playmakers and the Chiefs have several. Chiefs win, 28-24.
Line: Chiefs -7
Spread: Dolphins +7
ML: Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
This is a big rebound spot for the Bucs coming off their bye week and riding a two-game losing streak. If they want to keep pace with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South, this is a must-win at home. The biggest matchup here is the Bucs with their top ranked rush defense clashing with Dalvin Cook (2nd-most rushing yards in NFL). Somewhere, the levee will break, it just depends which side.
I haven't seen enough from Kurt Cousins over the past month to really instill confidence in backing him for this game. The numbers seem a bit inflated over the past three weeks against cupcake matchups with the Jaguars, Panthers and Cowboys. Now, he faces a tough defensive front and the Vikings are clinging to their playoff hopes. I think Tom Brady bounces back against Mike Zimmer's vanilla secondary -- Brady is 4-1 lifetime against Zimmer-led defenses -- and the Bucs take it 28-20.
Line: Buccaneers -7
Spread: Buccaneers -7
ML: Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans (8-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)
There is a great race shaping up in the AFC South between the Titans and Colts, thanks to the Titans having the doors blown off them last week at home by the Cleveland Browns. Mike Vrabel's team was down right flat in that first half and the mountain was too steep to climb despite the 41-35 finish. But, the Titans are a savvy team that can't be written off too easily and this is an opportunity to get one back against a lowly Jags squad.
Some people are really trusting in Mike Glennon to keep this game close, but I'm not one of them. Ryan Tannehill is poised for a big game here and Derrick Henry is absolutely licking his chops, ready to bulldoze this front seven. I think 'The King' has a big day and leads the Titans to victory, 27-13.
Line: Titans -7.5
Spread: Titans -7.5
ML: Titans
N.Y. Jets (0-12) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
The Seahawks were stunned at home last week by the Giants, 17-12. It was a great gameplan that neutralized Russell Wilson by confusing him with blitzes to keep him in the pocket and the Giants racked up five sacks. The offense was stagnant and Russ never really got the chance to get in the kitchen and cook like he usually does.
Now, the Seahawks turn their attention to another New York team, but one that is likely one of the worst the NFL has seen in the last decade. This seems like a blowout on tap and Jamal Adams will be revved up for this one as he faces his former team. Wilson should have plenty of time to settle in the pocket and pick apart this secondary. I'll take the Seahawks, 28-10.
Line: Seahawks -14
Spread: Seahawks -14
ML: Seahawks
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
I mentioned it earlier, but the Colts are in a tight race with the Titans for tops in the AFC South and this is a big game for them. DeForest Buckner's return to the lineup was a big boost for the Colts' defense last week and it comes at the right time for this game against Josh Jacobs. The Raiders have run the ball pretty well all year, but this will be their toughest test yet against a Colts front that might be the healthiest it has been in a while.
Philip Rivers has a lot of history playing the Raiders and this should be a fun matchup with Jon Gruden on the other sideline. The secondary for the Raiders is their weak link and I think T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman can take advantage of that, while Jonathan Taylor gets the green light to slice through a so-so run defense. I like the Colts, 31-24.
Line: Colts -2.5
Spread: Colts -2.5
ML: Colts
Atlanta Falcons (4-8) @ L.A. Chargers (3-9)
Both of these teams have been allergic to winning all season long. In fact, the Chargers and Falcons have combined to squander seven 4th quarter leads this year. I couldn't think of a better matchup to just pull a name out of a hat quite frankly. The Chargers were embarrassed by the Pats, 45-0 last week and Anthony Lynn reference Pearl Harbour when talking about uplifting his team in front of the media (WHAT?!).
The Falcons have played some consistent football under interim coach Raheem Morris and it's just hard for me to invest in the Chargers this week coming off that blowout loss. Lynn has one foot out the door, the team knows it, and I can't see the Chargers bouncing back here. I like the Falcons, 27-23.
Line: Chargers -1
Spread: Falcons +1
ML: Falcons
Green Bay Packers (9-3) @ Detroit Lions (5-7)
The Packers look pretty comfortable right now and I could see them coasting into a first-round bye with their remaining schedule: Lions, Panthers, Titans and Bears. Aaron Rodgers quietly has his name in the MVP conversation (although I'm not sure why with the season he's having?) and has put up some gaudy numbers so far -- 3,395 yards, 36 TD, 4 INT and 69.6 CMP%.
The Lions are a disaster right now, two weeks removed from firing Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn, plus they dearly miss Kenny Golladay at receiver. Golladay has been battling a hip issue and he looks on track to sit again. Two teams headed in opposite directions and Matthew Stafford may be re-evaluating his plans for the future in the offseason. I like the Packers, 28-17.
Line: Packers -7.5
Spread: Packers -7.5
ML: Packers
New Orleans Saints (10-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)
Well, Doug Pederson finally benched Carson Wentz as the Eagles will let things get "freaky" with Jalen Hurts this week against the Saints. I say why not? They spent a second-round pick on Hurts in the draft and need to evaluate what this kid can bring to the table. It's clear that something is off with Wentz this year as I can't remember a QB falling so hard from grace like he has.
The Saints control their own destiny, specifically in the NFC South, as they swept the Bucs already this year and hold a three-game lead on the division crown. However, typically when teams make a QB switch, we see a sense of urgency on the defensive side of the ball and I expect that here from the Eagles. Taysom Hill needs to hold onto the ball and play smart football, ensuring the Eagles don't get any extra life from the boost of Hurts starting. I like the Saints in a tough road win, 24-17.
Line: Saints -14
Spread: Eagles +14
ML: Saints
Washington Football Team (5-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
The Niners had a great chance to right the ship last week at home to the Buffalo Bills, but after a quality start it seemed the game just slipped through their grasp. This team badly misses Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle in the offense. Despite getting Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel back in recent weeks, Nick Mullens is not the answer and Kyle Shanahan's frustrations grow by the week.
This has a revenge game scenario for Shanahan as he was once calling plays with his father, Mike, in Washington. The Football Team is duking it out for the NFC East crown and their defense has played some great football down the stretch. Shanahan will likely pull out his trick plays from deep in the playbook to get this win and I think the Niners can match the Football Team's intensity on the defensive side of the ball. I'll take the Niners, 17-14.
Line: 49ers -2.5
Spread: 49ers -2.5
ML: 49ers
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3)
It's deep into December and the Bills are once again playing meaningful football games...in PRIMETIME! Sean McDermott has done a tremendous job the last couple of years with this team and Josh Allen is developing into one of the finest young quarterbacks this league has seen over the last decade. The defense has got some key pieces back in recent weeks and seems to be showing some characteristics from last season's stout group.
As for the Steelers, they were shocked by Washington last week and suffered their first loss of the year. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 50 passes in each of the last two games while leading in the second half as their ground game has sputtered. They will get James Conner back this week against a Bills defense giving up 119.9 rushing yards per game (T-19th in NFL). But, they look gassed and this will be their third game in the last 12 days, which sets up for a tough matchup on Sunday Night Football. I like the Bills, 24-20.
Line: Bills -2.5
Spread: Bills -2.5
ML: Bills
Baltimore Ravens (7-5) @ Cleveland Browns (9-3)
The Ravens finally shed the Covid-19 blanket last week and dominated the Cowboys, 34-17. Are they back? I'm not convinced. I still think Lamar Jackson has problems throwing the football, which for now, makes him a one dimensional QB. He's still that strong, elusive runner, but I wonder if opposing defenses have figured him out?
The Browns are playing their best football since, well, probably the 1980's and have a real shot at the AFC North title if they can pull out this win at home. Their offense is spearheaded by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running the football and I think Baker Mayfield might finally be finding his stride in this offense (that will be a hot topic of debate). I just wish the defense made more plays because all of their games seem like a track meet and eventually they will need a few defensive stops. Browns take it 28-27.
Line: Browns -3
Spread: Ravens +3
ML: Browns
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