Happy Thanksgiving to our friends South of the border! There is nothing like Turkey Day football, with three games lined up (and an extra game on Black Friday). The playoff race is tightening up down the stretch here, especially in that NFC West, where it's anyone's division to take right now. Let's dive into the Week 13 picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 28)
Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1)
The Lions are the cream of the crop in the NFC, imposing a strong-willed toughness on both sides of the ball. Aaron Glenn has been masterful in his coaching as this Lions defense has gone 10 consecutive quarters without giving up a touchdown, while piling up three straight 2nd-half shutouts. This is bad news for Caleb Williams, who the Bears can't seem to protect at all and for this team to compete they will need the defense to step up and force Jared Goff into some turnovers. Pick: Lions, 26-17.
Line: Lions -10
ML: Lions
Spread: Bears
New York Giants (2-9) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
The Daniel Jones era is over in New York and it looks like the Giants will retool next season with a new captain steering the ship. Drew Lock will start on Thursday in his place, and if you recall, he led the Seahawks to an important win over the Eagles late last season to keep them in the playoff hunt. The Cowboys are still searching for their first victory at home this season and they've struggled in these spots, just 2-11 ATS since 2011. Pick: Cowboys, 23-20.
Line: Cowboys -3.5
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Giants
Miami Dolphins (5-6) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3)
The temperature is expected to feel like 10 degrees Fahrenheit when kickoff rolls around at Lambeau Field. Historically, conditions like this have been hard for Tua Tagovailoa to handle, and I'm expecting more of the same in this game. If Josh Jacobs suits up for this game (it's trending that way), then I would expect the Packers to lean heavily on him and put the Dolphins on their heels at the line of scrimmage. Pick: Packers, 24-17.
Line: Packers -3.5
ML: Packers
Spread: Packers
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Antonio Pierce raised some eyebrows this week when he called this matchup "the worst team in the league against the best team in the league". An odd way to motivate your players, but perhaps a Maxx Crosby-type will use that as motivation to get after Patrick Mahomes in the pocket. The Chiefs were a bit complacent defensively last week against the Panthers, and I would suspect they clean that up this week. Pick: Chiefs, 28-17.
Line: Chiefs -13
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
The Chargers will be without J.K. Dobbins in this one and we know their offense is built around the run game, so it's an opportunity for rookie Kimani Vidal to step up. This is a big spot for the Falcons though, and they can create some separation in the division with a win at home here. Pick: Falcons, 21-17.
Line: Chargers -1
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
A classic NFC North clash between the Bengals and Steelers, with Zac Taylor's team clinging to their playoff lives and desperate for a win. The Steelers have now had 10 days to shake off their loss to the Browns and I would expect the defense to play with some fire and get after Joe Burrow. I think the Bengals find some late game heroics here and keep their playoff hopes alive for another week. Pick: Bengals, 23-21.
Line: Bengals -3
ML: Bengals
Spread: Steelers
Houston Texans (7-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
The Jags are looking forward to next season, but might still have spoiler on their mind. They have an opportunity to make the Texans' playoff push harder, and if they want to pull off the upset, this team needs to commit to the run. C.J. Stroud is going through a sophomore slump, and needs a get right game here. Pick: Texans, 23-16.
Line: Texans -4
ML: Texans
Spread: Texans
Arizona Cardinals (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
I didn't have the Cards sitting above .500 and contending for the NFC West this year, so kudos to Jonathan Gannon for getting the most out of his squad this season. A lot of that starts with Kyler Murray, who continues to be dangerous in all facets of the game, piling up 16 total touchdowns so far. I think this could be a great game, and I'm interested to see if Brian Flores can create enough confusion to keep Murray at bay. Pick: Vikings, 24-19.
Line: Vikings -3.5
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Indianapolis Colts (5-7) @ New England Patriots (3-9)
I think this Patriots defense has one more upset game in them and it happens this Sunday, slowing down Anthony Richardson. Say what you will about the Pats, but I think they've shown some resilience under Jerrod Mayo and Drake Maye has had some big moments for a rookie quarterback. The key to this game is stuffing the run, they can't let Jonathan Taylor get loose. Pick: Patriots, 19-16.
Line: Colts -2.5
ML: Patriots
Spread: Patriots
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ New York Jets (3-8)
It's been a tumultuous season for the Jets and it looks like the drama continues as Aaron Rodgers has said he doesn't want to play there next year. For the Seahawks, they have an opportunity to walk out of New York leading the NFC West (assuming a couple other games fall their way). I like what head coach Mike Macdonald has done with this team and the defense is answering the bell. Pick: Seahawks, 24-20.
Line: Seahawks -2
ML: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks
Tennessee Titans (3-8) @ Washington Commanders (7-5)
That was a tough loss for the Commanders last week, but they get a chance to shake that off and get back into the playoff hunt here. Jayden Daniels has been stellar this season, and should be the front runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Pick: Commanders, 24-16.
Line: Commanders -5.5
ML: Commanders
Spread: Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) @ Carolina Panthers (3-8)
The Bucs are still very much in the NFC playoff picture and Baker Mayfield has played some great football in the wake of some key absences on offense. The team appears to be healthy and Todd Bowles will need a solid performance from his defense against a Panthers team that is starting to gel. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-20.
Line: Buccaneers -6
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Panthers
Los Angeles Rams (5-6) @ New Orleans Saints (4-7)
The Rams are better than their record indicates, and this team has the offensive weapons to get on a roll. There are some growing pains on the defensive side of the ball and Sean McVay will need someone to step up in a big road spot here. I like Matthew Stafford to get a late touchdown and secure the victory. Pick: Rams, 26-21.
Line: Rams -2.5
ML: Rams
Spread: Rams
Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
This is a matchup that features two of the best rushing offenses in the entire NFL. Who will be the first to flinch on the defensive side of the ball? The Eagles have proven to be a great second half team, but I don't think they can afford to start slow in this game, especially if the Ravens play with a lead and can lean on Derrick Henry at the line of scrimmage. Pick: Ravens, 28-24.
Line: Ravens -3
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
San Francisco 49ers (5-6) @ Buffalo Bills (9-2)
The winter elements in this game will surely play a factor in the outcome and I think that could actually favor the Niners here. If it comes down to winning in the trenches and relying on your run game, then Christian McCaffrey has the ability to take things over. The Niners got some good news earlier this weekend, as it looks like Brock Purdy will start in this game after avoiding any setbacks in the practice week. Pick: 49ers, 23-20.
Line: Bills -7
ML: 49ers
Spread: 49ers
Cleveland Browns (3-8) @ Denver Broncos (7-5)
There's something really likeable about Jameis Winston, as he's easily becoming one of the best interviews around each week. The team has rallied around him and the defense is looking closer to the way it did last season. All that to say, the Broncos continue to roll, and Bo Nix doesn't seem phased by much in the pocket. Pick: Broncos, 20-16.
Line: Broncos -5.5
ML: Broncos
Spread: Browns
Results
Week 12
ML: 9-4
ATS: 7-6
Overall
ML: 117-62
ATS: 92-84-3
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