Thanksgiving proved two things: 1. The Cowboys need to get healthy and 2. The Bills might be back on the right track. The latter will be tested big time this week as their old nemesis, the Patriots, come to town for a big primetime showdown. Let's dive into Week 13.
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Friday)
Dallas Cowboys (7-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-6)
The Cowboys fell victim to an assault of penalty flags it seemed like last week. Anthony Brown couldn't avoid being flagged on DeSean Jackson and that was really the difference in the game when it mattered. Now, Mike McCarthy will miss this game due to Covid-19 protocols (along with other members of the staff), but the good news is that CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup will all suit up on offense. And, DeMarcus Lawrence makes his return to the defensive line, which may not be good new for the Saints as they will be without Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk on the offensive line. The other key injury note is Alvin Kamara will sit this one out, putting Mark Ingram in line for added touches. Pick: Cowboys, 26-14.
Line: Cowboys -6.5
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) @ Chicago Bears (4-7)
The Cardinals got some good news this week as both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins will be back in the lineup, which gives this offense a much needed boost. Surprisingly, Colt McCoy has kept this team afloat winning back-to-back games and the Cardinals remain atop the NFC West. A December game at Soldier Field for a West Coast team could prove problematic and I think the Bears hang around in this one. Pick: Cardinals, 24-17.
Line: Cardinals -7.5
Spread: Bears
ML: Cardinals
Indianapolis Colts (6-6) @ Houston Texans (2-9)
The Colts came up short against the Bucs last week in a 38-31 thriller. Now, they get a pesky Texans team in a divisional spot where all signs point to them dominating the game from start to finish. This Texans defense is allowing 135.6 RYDS/G (2nd-most), so Jonathan Taylor should have an absolute field day in the ground game. But, I think this spread is a tad high and this has the makings for a letdown game for the Colts. Pick: Colts, 24-16.
Line: Colts -10
Spread: Texans
ML: Colts
L.A. Chargers (6-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
This is a huge game for the AFC playoff picture as both of these teams currently hold a postseason spot in the standings. The Bengals have been a surprise this year as the offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders. This is a real opportunity for this young, upstart team to get a statement win against a desperate Chargers team on the heels of a tough divisional loss last week to the Broncos. Something doesn't seem right with Justin Herbert right now. Pick: Bengals, 26-21.
Line: Bengals -3
Spread: Bengals
ML: Bengals
Minnesota Vikings (5-6) @ Detroit Lions (0-10-1)
The Lions had an opportunity to get their first win of the season on Thanksgiving Day last Thursday, but fell short to the Bears (a microcosm for their entire season really). Now, the Vikings come to town chasing down a wildcard spot in the NFC and will have to do so without Dalvin Cook in the lineup. I think Alexander Mattison is more than capable of handling the bulk of the carries and the Vikings cruise here. Pick: Vikings, 27-17.
Line: Vikings -7.5
Spread: Vikings
ML: Vikings
N.Y. Giants (4-7) @ Miami Dolphins (5-7)
The Dolphins have an outside shot (and I mean outside shot) of making the playoffs in the AFC, but they would have to win out to get to 10-7 and hope. This is a spot where they're at home to a Giants team that has been inconsistent this season, coming off a nice home win over the Eagles last week. We just don't know which Daniel Jones we will get week-to-week and this Dolphins defense has proven resilient at times. Pick: Dolphins, 23-17.
Line: Dolphins -4.5
Spread: Dolphins
ML: Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) @ N.Y. Jets (3-8)
The Eagles were quite literally stunned last week on the road by the Giants and Jalen Hurts probably played his worst game of the season that resulted in three turnovers. Will they bounce back here against the lowly Jets? Well, they need to if they want any chance of keeping their NFC playoff hopes alive. I think the Eagles commit to the run game in this one and control the line of scrimmage, albeit tough against this Jets interior line. Pick: Eagles, 21-17.
Line: Eagles -7
Spread: Jets
ML: Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
The Bucs pulled off a late 4th quarter win on the road over the Colts last week and the star of the show was Leonard Fournette, who finished with four touchdowns. The Falcons have traditionally played the Bucs tough and Matt Ryan seems to elevate his game for these matchups. That being said, this Falcons defense can't stop a nosebleed and is really no match for the high-flying Bucs offense. I think Tom Brady has a big day through the air here. Pick: Buccaneers, 34-24.
Line: Buccaneers -10.5
Spread: Falcons
ML: Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) @ L.A. Rams (7-4)
This is the perfect time for a bounce back spot for the Rams, who were outmatched by the Packers last week and seems to be losing their grip on the NFC West at the moment. Their defense should be able to dominate Trevor Lawrence and the Jags on route to a much needed win to keep pace in the NFC playoff picture. Pick: Rams, 31-17.
Line: Rams -13
Spread: Rams
ML: Rams
Washington Football Team (5-6) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
The Raiders surprised everyone on the road with a big Thanksgiving Day win over the Cowboys and suddenly they control their own destiny to the playoffs here. Washington is a pesky team and currently holds the last NFC wildcard spot, but I think Derek Carr can pull off another win here to give the Raiders some momentum after snapping a three-game losing streak in Week 12. Pick: Raiders, 24-21.
Line: Raiders -1.5
Spread: Raiders
ML: Raiders
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)
I have no idea what happened to the Steelers last week, but they were completely obliterated by the Bengals...it was embarrassing. This seems like the end of an era in Steel Town as Ben Roethlisberger is at the end of the road. A veteran team led by a veteran coach should bounce back here and play a tough game against a division rival, but I'm not expecting them to come away with a win here. The Steelers will play with some pride this week, but ultimately I could see this game resting on the foot of Justin Tucker. Pick: Ravens, 20-17.
Line: Ravens -4.5
Spread: Steelers
ML: Ravens
San Francisco 49ers (6-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-8)
Seattle's season has been a complete write off and now with these D.K. Metcalf rumors swirling that he has drama with Russell Wilson, it's the furthest thing we're used to seeing from a Pete Carroll coached team. This squad can't seem to get out of their own way and it may just be time to rest Wilson for the remainder of the year and let Geno Smith take over. The 49ers picked up a big win over the Vikings last week and I think they walk away with another one here. Pick: 49ers, 23-17.
Line: 49ers -3
Spread: 49ers
ML: 49ers
Denver Broncos (6-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
The Broncos were impressive at home last week, beating the Chargers and this sets up as a huge divisional matchup with the Chiefs now. A lot of people wrote the Chiefs off about a month ago, but they've been on a roll of late and very much control the outcome of the AFC West right now. Arrowhead is a difficult place to play, especially in December, but the Broncos defense will show up here and I think the current line is a bit much. Pick: Chiefs, 24-17.
Line: Chiefs -9.5
Spread: Broncos
ML: Chiefs
New England Patriots (8-4) @ Buffalo Bills (7-4)
What a juicy matchup this is with AFC East implications on the line. I don't think many people had the Patriots leading this division come December, but here we are. Mac Jones looks like the real deal and of course on the other side of the field is Josh Allen, who has struggled in the past against Bill Belichick. The Pats have been rolling, but I think the Bills win late at home here to shake things up in the division. Pick: Bills, 24-21.
Line: Bills -2.5
Spread: Bills
ML: Bills
2021 Results
Week 12
ATS: 5-10
ML: 8-7
Overall
ATS: 91-86-3
ML: 106-73-1
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