Thanksgiving is on the horizon and that means three games this Thursday (plus a bonus Friday afternoon game) are on deck. Plenty on the line when it comes to the playoff picture and perhaps the biggest matchup features the Bills and the Eagles, with Sean McDermott's squad playing desperation football. Let's dive into the Week 12 picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 23)
Green Bay Packers (4-6) @ Detroit Lions (8-2)
The Lions got off to a slow start on Sunday, trailing by double digits in the 4th quarter to the Bears. Much of that could be attributed to their first half turnovers and they will need to tighten that up against the Packers. Surprises happen on Thanksgiving, but I think Dan Campbell will have his squad ready for this one. Pick: Lions, 27-20.
Line: Lions -7.5
ML: Lions
Spread: Packers
Washington Commanders (4-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
The Cowboys have been dominant at home over the last two seasons, winning 12 straight coming into this contest. What's more is that they've won four of those games by at least 20 points. They have a good chance to blow this one open against a Commanders team that recently dealt two quality pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Pick: Cowboys, 34-17.
Line: Cowboys -13
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers (7-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
The 49ers have got their swagger back a little bit, after they had dropped three straight in October. Brock Purdy looks comfortable once again in the pocket and this defense continues to get better each week. The Seahawks are pushing for a wildcard spot and I think they will play tough at home here, but ultimately, Geno Smith could be forced into a turnover to make the difference. Pick: 49ers, 23-17.
Line: 49ers -7
ML: 49ers
Spread: Seahawks
Miami Dolphins (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6)
A rare Friday afternoon game on the NFL schedule and it features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Jets have finally decided to pivot from Zach Wilson and will start Tim Boyle in this game (they probably wish Aaron Rodgers was ready to go). For the Dolphins, they need to get their offense back on track after a mediocre showing against the Raiders last week. The Jets have a stout defense, but they can only do so much. Pick: Dolphins, 26-13.
Line: Dolphins -9.5
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins
Carolina Panthers (1-9) @ Tennessee Titans (3-7)
The Panthers are dragging their heels at the bottom of the league right now and unfortunately the Bears own their first round pick next year. The future is looking dim in Carolina and on the other side of the field, the Titans are playing for bragging rights themselves. Look for Derrick Henry to give the Titans the edge here. Pick: Titans, 20-13.
Line: Titans -3.5
ML: Titans
Spread: Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) @ Houston Texans (6-4)
This is a big matchup with the AFC South lead hanging in the balance. On one hand, C.J. Stroud is looking to assert himself as the top dog in the division and Trevor Lawrence is trying to rebound in the second half of the season to lead the Jags to a second straight division crown. Pick: Jaguars, 27-20.
Line: Jaguars -1.5
ML: Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars
New England Patriots (2-8) @ New York Giants (3-8)
This game gives the Panthers-Titans a run for their money in the "Toilet Bowl" category this week. Mac Jones has been an utter disappointment this year and the Pats need to pivot from him next season. For the Giants, their playoff aspirations went out the window a while ago and they are simply playing for pride. Pick: Patriots, 17-14.
Line: Patriots -4.5
ML: Patriots
Spread: Giants
New Orleans Saints (5-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
The Falcons are coming off a bye and have their sights set on the NFC South lead as they host the Saints. It's time for Derek Carr to take ownership of this division and grind out a road win here in Atlanta. The Saints are light in their receiving corps this week, so there should be plenty of Alvin Kamara touches. Pick: Saints, 23-20.
Line: Saints -2
ML: Saints
Spread: Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)
The Bengals will be in tough without Joe Burrow under center the rest of the way and Jake Browning is easy pickings for the Steelers' defensive front this week. Can the Steelers finally get their offense going without Matt Canada calling the plays? Pick: Steelers, 23-13.
Line: Steelers -2
ML: Steelers
Spread: Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
This is a tough game to pick, considering the Colts are playing at home off their bye in what will likely be their last gasp at a wildcard spot. I like the Bucs here as they've been snake bitten in recent weeks and Baker Mayfield has a good control of this offense. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-21.
Line: Colts -2.5
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns (7-3) @ Denver Broncos (5-5)
Two solid defenses face off at Mile High this week, with AFC wildcard implications at stake. The Broncos have won four straight and Russell Wilson seems to be finding his groove in Sean Payton's offense. This will be a tall task for rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing on the road here and I think the Broncos take advantage. Pick: Broncos, 23-16.
Line: Broncos -1.5
ML: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
Los Angeles Rams (4-6) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-9)
The Rams have been rejuvenated in the last two weeks after Matthew Stafford returned from his thumb injury. I think this team could go on a bit of a run here and sneak into an NFC wildcard spot and the bus continues to roll over the Cardinals this week. Pick: Rams, 24-17.
Line: Rams -2.5
ML: Rams
Spread: Rams
Buffalo Bills (6-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
This one is big for the Bills this week (they all are from here on out) and their offensive and defensive lines match up well with the Eagles. It looks like some rain is in the forecast for this game, which should make the run game even more important, something the Bills need to get back to. Pick: Eagles, 27-23.
Line: Eagles -3
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)
The Chiefs let that game slide on Monday night against the Eagles, led by some timely turnovers and key dropped passes. They were shutout in the second half last week and I would imagine Patrick Mahomes will come out firing against the Raiders here. Pick: Chiefs, 31-17.
Line: Chiefs -9
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
Stick a fork in the Chargers after last week's heartbreaker against the Packers. This team just can't win a tight game to save their lives and I don't think this defense can contain Lamar Jackson, even without his top target in Mark Andrews. John Harbaugh's squad continues to maintain the top seed in the AFC with a win here. Pick: Ravens, 24-17.
Line: Ravens -3
ML: Ravens
Spread: Ravens
Chicago Bears (3-8) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
The Vikings are very much in the hunt for an NFC wildcard spot and that can be attributed to Joshua Dobbs' surprising play in relief of Kirk Cousins. However, the Bears gave the Lions all they could handle last week and I would expect Justin Fields to get loose a little bit in this game too. Pick: Vikings, 24-20.
Line: Vikings -3
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Results
Week 11
ML: 10-4
ATS: 6-7-1
Overall
ML: 110-54
ATS: 90-66-8
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