Week 11 was full of some statement games, that included the Cowboys absolutely dominating the Vikings from start to finish. And, the Patriots exposed one of the Jets' biggest flaws -- their offense. It's turkey week in America, which means there are three Thursday games to kick the week off. Let's dive into the Week 12 picks.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 26)
Buffalo Bills (7-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-6)
The Lions had a strong showing on the road last week, pulling out a 31-18 win over the Giants and much of that was a result of their strong run game. On the other side, the Bills had a crazy week due to a huge snowstorm in Buffalo that saw their game pushed to Detroit and they were resilient over the Browns. This line feels a bit much on a short week with plenty of travel for the Bills and they've struggled against the run. Pick: Bills, 26-17.
Line: Bills -9.5
ML: Bills
Spread: Lions
New York Giants (7-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
The Cowboys were impressive, coming away with a huge road win in Minnesota on Sunday and will now shift gears on a short week to the division rival Giants. Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence are dealing with ankle and foot injuries, but are expected to play. This could prove to be another long day in the backfield for Daniel Jones. Pick: Cowboys, 24-15.
Line: Cowboys -10
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Giants
New England Patriots (6-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
The Vikings were embarrassed on home field last week by the Cowboys as Kirk Cousins barely had time to breathe in the pocket. I would expect the Patriots to take some lessons from that Cowboys defensive performance and dial up the pressure again, but this time I think the Vikings can make enough plays to come away victorious. Pick: Vikings, 20-17.
Line: Vikings -2.5
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) @ Washington Commanders (6-5)
The Commanders have won five of their last six games and suddenly find themselves in the thick of the NFC wildcard race. The turnaround to their season can be attributed to some strong defensive play and star pass rusher Chase Young was recently activated from the IR. Look for the defense to hold firm at home and the playoff chatter to keep heating up. Pick: Commanders, 23-17.
Line: Commanders -4
ML: Commanders
Spread: Commanders
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
The Ravens' offense has been stagnant as of late and if not for their defense stepping up, they might not be leading the AFC North. Now, they head on the road to play a Jags team coming off its bye. This will be a big test for Trevor Lawrence and the offense, but I think they keep this one close throughout. Pick: Ravens, 23-20.
Line: Ravens -3.5
ML: Ravens
Spread: Jaguars
Chicago Bears (3-8) @ New York Jets (6-4)
It's unclear who will be under center for the Bears as it was reported Justin Fields is dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. The Jets defense has been its lifeline this season and I don't really see the point in Fields suiting up for this game and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets shutdown for the season depending on the severity of the injury. Pick: Jets, 20-13.
Line: Jets -6
ML: Jets
Spread: Jets
Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) @ Tennessee Titans (7-3)
Ja'Marr Chase has been on everyone's radar this week as he could return to the lineup for this big AFC clash with the Titans. That being said, the Bengals' offense has plenty of depth despite him being on the field. This Titans team has flow under the radar this year and Derrick Henry just continues to churn out big gains. Pick: Titans, 23-20.
Line: Bengals -2.5
ML: Titans
Spread: Titans
Denver Broncos (3-7) @ Carolina Panthers (3-8)
The Panthers are making another change at QB -- their third of the season -- as Sam Darnold will make his season debut. This still doesn't give me a lot of confidence in the Panthers' offense and despite Russell Wilson's struggles on the opposite sideline, I'll lean towards the Broncos' defense. Pick: Broncos, 17-14.
Line: Broncos -1
ML: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
Houston Texans (1-8-1) @ Miami Dolphins (7-3)
Like the Panthers, the Texans are switching things up at QB by starting Kyle Allen this week. While the Texans will look for a spark offensively, the Dolphins have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL this year, averaging 391.5 YDS/G (3rd) and 25.2 PTS/G (7th). Pick: Dolphins, 30-17.
Line: Dolphins -14
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Texans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) @ Cleveland Browns (3-7)
The Bucs very much control their own destiny when it comes to deciding the NFC South division crown as the schedule softens down the stretch for them. Leonard Fournette will miss this game, so rookie Rachaad White will get plenty of looks, especially in the passing game. Tom Brady should be able to move the ball with ease on this secondary. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-17.
Line: Buccaneers -3.5
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
The Chargers have struggled to stay healthy all year (history continues to repeat itself) and now Mike Williams will sit again after re-aggravating his ankle injury last week. This is where Justin Herbert needs to will this team to a win as they stay afloat in the AFC wildcard race -- I think he gets the job done. Pick: Chargers, 24-20.
Line: Chargers -3
ML: Chargers
Spread: Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
The Seahawks are in a battle with the 49ers atop the NFC West and I have to say, Pete Carroll needs to be highly considered for coach of the year honors. Josh Jacobs is questionable for this game and if he can't go, I think that makes getting out of Seattle with a road win really tough for this Raiders squad. Pick: Seahawks, 24-17.
Line: Seahawks -3.5
ML: Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams (3-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
If you looked at the schedule at the start of the year, you might have circled this game on the calendar. But, it's been a long year for Sean McVay's crew and Matthew Stafford is back in the concussion protocol along with Cooper Kupp being sidelined. Expect the Chiefs to take advantage of an injury-riddled Rams squad and keep pushing for homefield advantage in the AFC playoffs. Pick: Chiefs, 31-16.
Line: Chiefs -15.5
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Rams
New Orleans Saints (4-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
The Niners are on a roll right now since acquiring Christian McCaffrey and look like a team to be reckoned with in the NFC. The defense is one of the best in the league and should be able to create problems for Andy Dalton in this game. Pick: 49ers, 24-16.
Line: 49ers -9.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: Saints
Green Bay Packers (4-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
The trade rumors are already swirling around where Aaron Rodgers might land next season as the Packers have spiraled down the NFC standings. This matchup doesn't look promising either as the Eagles' front seven are set to tee off on Rodgers in the backfield. Pick: Eagles, 28-20.
Line: Eagles -6.5
ML: Eagles
Spread: Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)
These are two teams that we're not used to seeing near the bottom of the AFC standings and at this point in the season they're playing for pride. I'll give the slight edge to the Colts here as Jonathan Taylor seems to be healthy once again and their defense should be able to match the intensity of the Steelers. Pick: Colts, 23-20.
Line: Colts -2.5
ML: Colts
Spread: Colts
Results
Week 11
ML: 11-3
ATS: 6-7-1
Overall
ML: 104-60
ATS: 89-69-6
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