Week 11 was another crazy week in the NFL as we saw the playoff landscape in both conferences shift even more. In the AFC, the Bills seems to be falling off after letting the Colts walk into their own building and blow the doors off them -- if you can run the football, there's a good chance you can beat the Bills right now. In the NFC, the Cardinals continue to be the story as Colt McCoy came up with a huge road win over the Seahawks to keep them in first place. It's turkey week, which means we have three games lined up for Thursday and two of them are huge for the playoff picture. Let's dive into the Week 12 landscape.
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Sunday)
Chicago Bears (3-7) @ Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Rumors swirled this week that Matt Nagy would be fired following this game...which seems a little bit odd because why not just can him prior to it? Anyway, he claims that's absolutely not true (of course he does) and so we have a huge distraction for the Bears leading into the Thanksgiving opener. How will it affect the outcome? Well, it looks like Jared Goff could return from injury for this one, but does that instill much confidence in anyone to pick the Lions? This game is a tire fire to put it bluntly and I'll likely be skipping much of it. Pick: Bears, 24-21.
Line: Bears -3
Spread: Bears
ML: Bears
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Man, the Cowboys didn't show up at all last week at Arrowhead Stadium and the Chiefs defense dominated the line of scrimmage from the get go. I'd like to chalk that up to just an off game in general, but man the offensive line for Dallas was concerning. And, there will be another tough assignment with Maxx Crosby lining up this week on Dak Prescott's blindside. I have to think this will be a bounce back spot for the Cowboys even without Amari Cooper for a second straight game. It's Thanksgiving, under the lights in 'Big D' and Jerry Jones will be smiling ear to ear. Pick: Cowboys, 35-24.
Line: Cowboys -7.5
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
Buffalo Bills (6-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5)
I touched on it in the opening, but the Bills were absolutely dominated at home by the Colts last week. To the point where it was incredible what was happening on the TV. This team is a long way from the one that played in the AFC Championship last year and Sean McDermott needs to work some coaching magic over these next five games -- Saints, Patriots twice, Buccaneers and Panthers -- to get this team to a position where they are feeling confident entering the playoffs. They should be able to take advantage of a Saints team reeling from inconsistent QB play right now on top of the fact that Alvin Kamara will sit out again and Mark Ingram is questionable. Pick: Bills, 27-17.
Line: Bills -6
Spread: Bills
ML: Bills
Atlanta Falcons (4-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
As we get deeper into the season there are more and more games that require you to change the channel, this is one of those games. The Falcons have extremely slim playoff hopes, but they likely have to win out and for the Jags, the Urban Meyer experiment hasn't started off so hot. I'll side with the team that has more to play for right now. Pick: Falcons, 21-17.
Line: Falcons -2
Spread: Falcons
ML: Falcons
Carolina Panthers (5-6) @ Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Cam Newton's return to Carolina last week ended up in a loss against his former coach, Ron Rivera, but he seems to have a new found energy right now. The Dolphins have an aggressive defense that did an excellent job limiting Lamar Jackson's mobility a few weeks ago. The Panthers need this win in a big way and I'll look to their defense to step up here in a big spot. Pick: Panthers, 23-16.
Line: Panthers -2.5
Spread: Panthers
ML: Panthers
N.Y. Jets (2-8) @ Houston Texans (2-8)
This game is another channel changer, unless you're interested in the sweepstakes for next summer's second overall pick in the draft? The Texans seems to play with a different energy when Tyrod Taylor is under center and they pulled off the upset on the road over the Titans last week because of it. It looks like Zach Wilson will be back for the Jets, but that still doesn't make me too confident about their chances. Pick: Texans, 24-17.
Line: Texans -2.5
Spread: Texans
ML: Texans
Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) @ N.Y. Giants (3-7)
With the Cowboys losing on Thanksgiving, did that leave the door open a crack for the Eagles to slip back into the NFC East conversation? Perhaps, but I still think the Eagles need to get on a real roll here to catch them. That being said, the Giants are in shambles right now after just firing offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and the Eagles should be able to soar on the road here. Pick: Eagles, 27-17.
Line: Eagles -3.5
Spread: Eagles
ML: Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
This is a huge divisional matchup in the AFC North and the Bengals already stunned the Steelers earlier this year at Heinz Field. Ben Roethlisberger appears as healthy as he's ever going to really be this year and the Steelers will have their full assortment of weapons on offense for this game. For the Bengals, they've played some tough football this year and I love the makeup of this young squad (really seems to be a changing of the guard in the division). That being said, I think the Steelers even up the season series today. Pick: Steelers, 24-21.
Line: Bengals -3.5
Spread: Steelers
ML: Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
The Colts have miraculously clawed their way back into the AFC playoff picture after an 0-3 start to the season. Frank Reich's team is playing with a lot of confidence right now, especially on defense, which is perfect timing with the high-flying Bucs' offense coming to town. It will be intriguing to see how Jonathan Taylor does against the NFL's best run defense. Pick: Buccaneers, 27-23.
Line: Buccaneers -3
Spread: Buccaneers
ML: Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans (8-3) @ New England Patriots (7-4)
Lots of people are riding the Patriots right now and rightfully so as they're riding a five game win streak heading into this game. Is Mac Jones the real deal? He just might be and I'll bet nobody is happier about that than Bill Belichick. This Titans team doesn't seem to have the same identity without Derrick Henry and as a result, they could struggle in this game. Belichick has done some excellent coaching with this defensive unit and this will be a real tough test for Ryan Tannehill today. Pick: Patriots, 24-20.
Line: Patriots -7
Spread: Titans
ML: Patriots
L.A. Chargers (6-4) @ Denver Broncos (5-5)
The Chargers held off the Steelers last week to keep pace in the AFC West and this is a big game against a Broncos team that desperately needs this win coming off a bye. I'm going to lean towards this being more of a defensive struggle at Mile High today and I think Justin Herbert will pull this one out late on the road. The key here will be the Chargers limiting both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams on the ground. Pick: Chargers, 20-17.
Line: Chargers -2.5
Spread: Chargers
ML: Chargers
L.A. Rams (7-3) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Oh boy, how will Aaron Rodgers survive the "Covid toe" against this formidable Rams pass rush? What a story that was this week that ended with Rodgers flashing his foot to the media explaining he has a fractured toe. All joking aside, this game has big time NFC playoff implications and it's an opportunity for Rodgers to meet a familiar face in Matthew Stafford once again. This is a big spot for both these teams and I like Sean McVay to have his troops ready coming off a bye week. Pick: Rams, 24-17.
Line: Rams -1.5
Spread: Rams
ML: Rams
Minnesota Vikings (5-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
These two teams have scratched and clawed their way to a 5-5 record and both are currently occupying the final two wildcard spots in the NFC. The Niners don't really have anyone that can slow down Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen so that will be a mismatch throughout this game. On the flip side, we've seen some shaky performances by the Vikings' secondary this year, so Deebo Samuel should be able to exploit that. Pick: 49ers, 28-27.
Line: 49ers -3.5
Spread: Vikings
ML: 49ers
Cleveland Browns (6-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
This is an exciting Sunday night game between two bitter rivals in the AFC North. Baker Mayfield is really showing the effects of that torn labrum and looks very limited in the pocket lately. It's possible they get Kareem Hunt back for this one, which would be the type of boost they need on offense, but it just seems so predictable coming out of that backfield right now. For the Ravens, they edged out a road win over the Bears last week without Lamar Jackson, but he will be healthy to play in this one and I think John Harbaugh's team is about to break away here in the division lead. Pick: Ravens, 23-16.
Line: Ravens -3.5
Spread: Ravens
ML: Ravens
Seattle Seahawks (3-7) @ Washington Football Team (4-6)
Well, this is a snooze fest for Monday night as the Seahawks are not the team many thought they would be at this point in the year. I think Russell Wilson may have rushed back from the injury to his finger as he just simply doesn't look comfortable on his release. Washington has played some tough games lately and came away with a win over the Panthers last week. It might be Geno Smith season very soon again in Seattle as this is a lost season. Pick: WFT, 20-17.
Line: WFT -1
Spread: WFT
ML: WFT
2021 Results
Week 11
ATS: 7-8
ML: 8-7
Overall
ATS: 86-76-3
ML: 98-66-1
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