Is it just me or does it feel like Mac Jones is exactly what Bill Belichick needs for another run at a dynasty? I don't want to get too far ahead of the rookie here, but man does he look comfortable and has the Patriots back in the playoff conversation, and, contending for the AFC East. Lots of shake up in the AFC playoff picture last week (primarily in the AFC North), so let's take a look at what Week 11 has in store.
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Saturday)
New England Patriots (6-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-5)
I mentioned it off the top, but Jones has the Pats rolling right now and it seems like Belichick has molded this defense to his liking. This is going to be a tough team to play against down the stretch and we've seen some poor offensive line play from the Bills at times this year, so things are going to get interesting between those AFC East rivals with two games left against one another. I think the Pats can take advantage of a depleted Falcons offense in this one and put enough pressure on Matt Ryan to force a couple mistakes. Pick: Patriots, 24-14.
Line: Patriots -7
Spread: Patriots
ML: Patriots
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) @ Chicago Bears (3-6)
It wasn't pretty for the Ravens last Thursday night as they came out absolutely flat and quite frankly dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage in a loss to the Dolphins. Now, they have a bounce back spot against an inconsistent Bears squad, but don't let that fool you as Justin Fields was pretty strong in a tight loss to the Steelers just two weeks ago. Soldier Field is a tough spot to play for opposing teams, coupled with the fact that Lamar Jackson is on the fence for playing in this game and if he can't their run game takes a big hit. Pick: Ravens, 21-17.
Line: Ravens -5
Spread: Bears
ML: Ravens
Detroit Lions (0-8-1) @ Cleveland Browns (5-5)
The Lions nearly got their first win of the season last week against the Steelers (without Ben Roethlisberger, but I'm not sure that matters) and you now have to wonder when they'll actually get one? I don't think this is the spot as the Browns absolutely need this game at home to keep pace in the division and stay afloat in the AFC playoff picture. It's also worth noting that Tim Boyle will start his first NFL game in place of the injured Jared Goff. Pick: Browns, 28-14.
Line: Browns -13
Spread: Browns
ML: Browns
Green Bay Packers (8-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
The Vikings came up big on the road to beat the Chargers last week and I actually think this is an opportunity to build off that momentum at home to a Packers team they've had some success against in the Kirk Cousins era. Aaron Jones will sit this game out, which means we'll likely see plenty of AJ Dillon throughout this game. The Vikings have had some puzzling games at home, including a loss to the Cowboys at the hands of Cooper Rush, but historically this environment has given Rodgers some fits. Pick: Vikings, 27-24.
Line: Packers -1
Spread: Vikings
ML: Vikings
Houston Texans (1-8) @ Tennessee Titans (8-2)
The Titans comfortably sit atop the AFC South and with a win this week they can take one step closer to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. It's pretty incredible they're doing this without Derrick Henry in the lineup, so it remains to be seen if that becomes a factor at some point. I would expect Mike Vrabel to get his team motivated to pull out the win in this game and not look past the division rival Texans. Pick: Titans, 26-17.
Line: Titans -10.5
Spread: Texans
ML: Titans
Indianapolis Colts (5-5) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3)
Suddenly the Bills find themselves in a fight for the AFC East crown with the Patriots...read that again. That's right, I'm not sure many people saw that coming at all this season, but here we are. Now, the Bills turn their attention to a pretty desperate Colts team in a rematch from the AFC Wildcard round last year. This is an interesting game because the Colts' defense could show up to play and like I said earlier, we've seen some suspect offensive line play from the Bills this year. Pick: Bills, 26-21.
Line: Bills -7
Spread: Colts
ML: Bills
Miami Dolphins (3-7) @ N.Y. Jets (2-7)
As we touched on earlier, the Dolphins showed up in a big way last Thursday night with a big home win over the Ravens. And, I'll add that their defense played that game much more similar to their entire 2020 season. I would suspect the defense to show up again this week against Joe Flacco and the Jets. It's the battle of the basement in the AFC East, but I'll side with the team that's looked stronger as of late. Pick: Dolphins, 20-14.
Line: Dolphins -3.5
Spread: Dolphins
ML: Dolphins
New Orleans Saints (5-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
The Saints are really missing consistency at the QB position and that's likely going to plague them the rest of the year. To make matters worse, Alvin Kamara is officially out for this game, which puts even more added pressure on the offense. Sean Payton needs his defense in a big way here as Jalen Hurts has flashed some big play ability this season. It looks like Dallas Goedert will also sit this game out as he remains in the concussion protocol, so who will step up in his absence on the Eagles? Pick: Saints, 21-20.
Line: Eagles -2.5
Spread: Saints
ML: Saints
San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)
The Niners looked more like the team many thought they would be entering the season after an impressive win last week over the Rams. I've been a big Jimmy Garoppolo supporter and think he's more than capable of leading a team into the playoffs as a full-time starter (people are quick to forget he took the Niners to the Super Bowl two years ago). The Niners need this win badly to keep their playoff hopes alive, especially with a matchup looming next week that could have big NFC playoff implications against the Vikings. Pick: 49ers, 23-17.
Line: 49ers -6.5
Spread: Jaguars
ML: 49ers
Washington Football Team (3-6) @ Carolina Panthers (5-5)
"I'm BAAAAAACCCKKKKKK!" Honestly, I kept playing that replay over and over from last week after Cam Newton found pay dirt in his first game back with the Panthers and found it hilarious. Now, he will get the start at home against his old coach, Ron Rivera, as the Panthers are suddenly back in the NFC playoff conversation. I think the defense will come up big here and get some revenge for Newton (but let's not forget this is also a revenge spot for Taylor Heinicke against his old team). Pick: Panthers, 23-17.
Line: Panthers -3
Spread: Panthers
ML: Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-4)
This is a huge game for both these squads as a loss probably leaves one of them on the outside looking in for a playoff spot come January. The Raiders got absolutely blown out of their own building in primetime last week by the Chiefs and will now have their hands full with a pretty potent Bengals offense. Something's a bit fishy with this line, and I have to think the Raiders come out prepared for this won after having to walk back to their locker room with their tails between their legs last week. Pick: Raiders, 27-24.
Line: Bengals -1.5
Spread: Raiders
ML: Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (8-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-6)
Russell Wilson's return to the Seahawks lineup ended in disaster last week as the offense couldn't get anything going and were shutout 17-0 by the Packers. Now, he's at home against the Cardinals who appear likely to be without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins for this game. This is going to be a last ditch desperation game for the Seahawks if they want any chance of making the playoffs this season and I think I'll lean towards the home team here after giving Wilson another week to get back on track. Pick: Seahawks, 24-17.
Line: Seahawks -3
Spread: Seahawks
ML: Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys (7-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-4)
This should be the game of the week right here. Two offenses that know how to sling and it seems the Chiefs are once again finding their groove. Amari Cooper will sit this one out, but I'm fully confident in Michael Gallup's abilities to step right in and be a target monster this week. It will be interesting to see how Dan Quinn's defense aims to slow down Patrick Mahomes as it typically comes down to picking your poison and focusing on one of Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Pick: Cowboys, 30-28.
Line: Chiefs -2.5
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) @ L.A. Chargers (5-4)
Big Ben will be back for this primetime matchup between the Steelers and the Chargers. Both of these teams need the victory badly, but I would say it's the Chargers that need it more right now as they were once firmly planted atop the AFC West and seem to be falling from grace quickly here. Can the Steelers defense slow down Justin Herbert? I think they will, but I still feel as though the Chargers do just enough to squeak this one out. Pick: Chargers, 23-20.
Line: Chargers -5.5
Spread: Steelers
ML: Chargers
N.Y. Giants (3-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
The Bucs were embarrassed on the road in Washington last week as Tom Brady through two picks in the first half and never seemed to find his groove after that. Now, they'll take on the Giants who have given Brady fits his entire career, regardless of who has been under center. This game should be a cake walk for the Bucs, but they've slowed down a bit in recent weeks and I think this line is a bit strong even though they're at home. Plus, the Giants will have Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay returning to the lineup. Pick: Buccaneers, 27-17.
Line: Buccaneers -11
Spread: Giants
ML: Buccaneers
2021 Results
Week 10
ATS: 6-8
ML: 6-7-1
Overall
ATS: 79-68-3
ML: 90-59-1
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