The tide is turning in the NFL and it starts with the Green Bay Packers falling from grace atop the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers seems to have lost his magic and Tom Brady might finally be consumed by "Father Time". Let's dive into this week's games.
**All betting lines from bet365.com** (Updated Nov. 13)
Atlanta Falcons (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers (2-7)
Surprisingly, the Falcons are competing for the NFC South crown (I'm not sure if that has to do with them or how poorly the Bucs have played?) and this seems like a spot where they can take advantage of the Panthers' lack of offensive weapons. They're calling for rain in this game, which can be a factor, but the Falcons should be able to lean on Cordarrelle Patterson. Pick: Falcons, 20-13.
Line: Falcons -2.5
ML: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
This game is being played overseas in Germany, so home field advantage won't be much of a factor. One thing to note is that Tom Brady has the second-best passer rating of any QB in international play (minimum two starts) at 125.2. Geno Smith has been impressive this season and I think this game could come down to the wire on a late kick. Pick: Buccaneers, 24-21.
Line: Buccaneers -2.5
ML: Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns (3-5) @ Miami Dolphins (6-3)
The Browns come off their bye week following a big Monday night win over the division rival Bengals and will try to upset the red-hot Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa looks like he can't be slowed down right now and both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are one of the best one-two punches in the NFL. Pick: Dolphins, 27-20.
Line: Dolphins -3
ML: Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins
Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Tennessee Titans (5-3)
The Titans have a commanding lead in the AFC South and nearly walked away with a huge road win over the Chiefs last week. It looks like Ryan Tannehill will be back under center this week against a struggling Russell Wilson. I like Derrick Henry to keep moving the chains and the Titans to grind out a victory. Pick: Titans, 21-17.
Line: Titans -2.5
ML: Titans
Spread: Titans
Detroit Lions (2-6) @ Chicago Bears (3-6)
We might as well call this one the "Toilet Bowl" game for this week. The Lions came away with a surprising win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week, but their secondary has been terrible this season and I can't see Justin Fields not being able to exploit that. Pick: Bears, 24-17.
Line: Bears -2.5
ML: Bears
Spread: Bears
Houston Texans (1-6-1) @ New York Giants (6-2)
Brian Daboll has done an excellent job with the Giants this year and is definitely in the running for coach of the year honors. I think they lean heavily on Saquon Barkley here and it will be another long day for Lovie Smith's crew. Pick: Giants, 24-16.
Line: Giants -4.5
ML: Giants
Spread: Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
The Chiefs scraped out a win over the Titans at home last week, needing to come from behind in the 4th quarter. They're a much better team on paper than the Jags here and I still think Travis Etienne Jr. creates headaches for them. Pick: Chiefs, 28-20.
Line: Chiefs -9
ML: Chiefs
Spread: Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings (7-1) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3)
This is the game of the week, no question. The only caveat being the health of Josh Allen after he suffered a UCL sprain in his right elbow in last week's loss to the Jets. Sean McDermott called him "hour to hour" near the end of the week and to me, it sounds like they should let him sit this one out and rest up for the playoff push. Pick: Vikings, 20-17.
Line: Bills -6.5
ML: Vikings
Spread: Vikings
New Orleans Saints (3-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)
Andy Dalton struggles against the Steelers' defense -- stop me if you've heard that before. That's because Dalton is 3-13 in 16 career starts against the Steelers and I think his woes continue this week in Pittsburgh. Pick: Steelers, 19-16.
Line: Steelers -1
ML: Steelers
Spread: Steelers
Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
This game had serious contention with the Bears-Lions for "Toilet Bowl" game of the week. The Raiders can't seem to hold a lead in the second half and that has Davante Adams fuming. Not to worry Raiders fans, I think the Black and Silver get one today. Pick: Raiders, 23-16.
Line: Raiders -4
ML: Raiders
Spread: Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-5)
This game might very well feature two backups under center this week as Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury and Matthew Stafford has yet to clear concussion protocol. That would leave Colt McCoy and John Wolford taking snaps, although Sean McVay did say Stafford has been trending positively all week. Pick: Rams, 20-16.
Line: Rams -3
ML: Rams
Spread: Rams
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) @ Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Not really sure what to make of the Packers this season as Aaron Rodgers looks completely defeated. Last week's performance with three interceptions pretty much put the fork in their playoff chances if you ask me. Now, the Cowboys come to town with a stellar defense and I think it will be a long day in the backfield for Rodgers. Pick: Cowboys, 26-17.
Line: Cowboys -3.5
ML: Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
This spread seems a little large considering both these teams have solid defenses. I'm thinking the fact that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be out again this week has pushed this line past a touchdown. I think Justin Herbert will be resilient though, just like he was in last week's win over the Falcons on the road. Pick: 49ers, 23-17.
Line: 49ers -7.5
ML: 49ers
Spread: Chargers
Washington Commanders (4-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)
The Eagles look like they can't be stopped right now as they continue to stand alone as the only undefeated team in the NFL. They seem to be the most complete team on both sides of the ball, however, they haven't faced too many tough teams to date and they can't overlook the division rival Commanders this week. Pick: Eagles, 27-17.
Line: Eagles -11
ML: Eagles
Spread: Commanders
Results
Week 9
ML: 9-4
ATS: 5-5-3
Overall
ATS: 75-56-5
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