Well, we just witnessed some wild upsets last week and the entire playoff picture in both the AFC and NFC is shook up because of it. The Buffalo Bills came up with an absolute dud, losing on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars. And, the Dallas Cowboys evidently forgot they were playing a home game on Sunday as they were absolutely dominated by the Denver Broncos from start to finish. One more thing to ponder as we enter Week 10...are the Tennessee Titans the best team in the NFL? It's worth the conversation. Let's dive into this week's games.
**All betting lines are from bet365.com** (Updated Thursday)
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-7)
The Ravens were pushed to the brink last week (coming off a bye at home I'll add) and squeaked out a 34-31 win over the Vikings. This is a cupcake matchup for them on Thursday night where their defense should be able to take advantage of a floundering Dolphins offense. Honestly, Lamar Jackson should be able to run wild here on the Dolphins and distribute the ball as he pleases...they should run away with this. Pick: Ravens, 30-17.
Line: Ravens -8.5
Spread: Ravens
ML: Ravens
Atlanta Falcons (4-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
The Cowboys were absolutely stunned at home last week by the Broncos, to the point that they looked like a team that was destined for a first overall pick next summer rather than one that is firmly cemented in the NFC playoff picture. Some of that was attributed to a few failed fourth down attempts in the first half that could have resulted in points. With that, the Broncos defense held strong and shutout the high-flying Cowboys passing attack until the 4th quarter. I think they bounce back here against a Falcons defense that isn't in the same neighborhood as the Broncos. Pick: Cowboys, 34-23.
Line: Cowboys -9
Spread: Cowboys
ML: Cowboys
Buffalo Bills (5-3) @ N.Y. Jets (2-6)
What on Earth happened to the Bills in Jacksonville last week? Is their offensive line this bad, that they couldn't amass double digit points to win that football game? Something doesn't seem right here and with that loss, they may have lost their grip on any home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Josh Allen needs a get right spot and here it is against the Jets, but be advised this defensive front could create problems just like the Jags did for this offensive line last week. Pick: Bills, 27-14.
Line: Bills -12
Spread: Bills
ML: Bills
Cleveland Browns (5-4) @ New England Patriots (5-4)
The Browns got themselves back in the AFC North talks with a big road win over the Bengals and now they will head to Foxborough to take on the pesky Patriots. Both these teams are 5-4 and this game has big time AFC wildcard implications. How healthy is Baker Mayfield? He didn't seem to be bothered last week, but can Bill Belichick disguise some blitzes and create pressure in the backfield to limit him? I think I like the Pats here with all the OBJ drama going on this week. Pick: Patriots, 24-21.
Line: Patriots -2.5
Spread: Patriots
ML: Patriots
Detroit Lions (0-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Is there a team in the league that needs a win for their confidence more than the Lions right now? It's a rhetorical question. Well, could this be it as they come off their bye week? I can't see it, but they could cover this spread, which has more to do with how I feel about the Steelers right now. Sure, they're winning games, but that win over the Bears on Monday night was a little too close for comfort. Ben Roethlisberger remains unpredictable each week and there's potential here that they're the softest 6-3 team in the NFL after Week 10. Pick: Steelers, 24-17.
Line: Steelers -8.5
Spread: Lions
ML: Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
The Colts have an outside shot at an AFC wildcard spot and after a dominating performance over the Jets, they get another soft matchup at home to the Jags. Carson Wentz seems to be finding a little more comfortability in the pocket recently and Jonathan Taylor has been a bowling ball coming out of the backfield. I think the Colts roll here. Pick: 31-17.
Line: Colts -10.5
Spread: Colts
ML: Colts
New Orleans Saints (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (7-2)
What a statement by the Titans on Sunday night as they walked into L.A. without Derrick Henry and put it on the Rams. Suddenly, the focus has shifted to the Titans not only being the team to beat in the AFC, but maybe they're the best team in the NFL right now? The Saints lost a nail biter at home the the Falcons last week and it's hard to predict what type of team they will be moving forward without any stable QB play. Pick: Titans, 24-17.
Line: Titans -3
Spread: Titans
ML: Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) @ Washington Football Team (2-6)
The Bucs are coming off their bye week and historically, any time that Tom Brady gets extra rest and extra time to prepare for his opponent, it's been a recipe for success. Washington's defense is just not what it was when these two teams met in the playoffs last year and I would expect Brady to keep slinging it freely in this one. Pick: Buccaneers, 31-16.
Line: Buccaneers -9.5
Spread: Buccaneers
ML: Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers (4-5) @ Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
This spread seems a little large considering we don't know if Kyler Murray is a full go for Sunday. The Cards' QB says he's feeling much better and is able to put more pressure on his injured ankle, but again, any time Christian McCaffrey is at full health he is a difference maker and I don't suspect the Cards will be able to just run away with this game. The line likely has more to do with Sam Darnold's absence and P.J. Walker stepping up, but recall that Walker picked up a win last year in his first relief appearance. Pick: Cardinals, 26-19.
Line: Cardinals -10.5
Spread: Panthers
ML: Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings (3-5) @ L.A. Chargers (5-3)
The Vikings nearly came away with a win last week over the Ravens and now set their sights on the "upset" over the Chargers. Dalvin Cook should get some time and space to move the chains in this game, but it comes down to how well Kirk Cousins can establish the pass against a solid Chargers secondary. The Vikings defense has been very vanilla this season, so I think this game has the makings for some big offensive numbers. Pick: Chargers, 31-27.
Line: Chargers -3
Spread: Chargers
ML: Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) @ Denver Broncos (5-4)
The Broncos put everyone on notice with a huge upset on the road over the Cowboys last week and now their defense should be able to feast on the Eagles. This is a huge game for the Broncos as the AFC West (or Wild Wild West) is getting really interesting. I think Teddy Bridgewater should have another productive day here and the run game of the Broncos should be able to control the line of scrimmage. Pick: Broncos, 23-16.
Line: Broncos -2.5
Spread: Broncos
ML: Broncos
Seattle Seahawks (3-5) @ Green Bay Packers (7-2)
Russell Wilson looks poised to make his return this week following a seemingly accelerated recovery timeline and it's a big spot against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Seahawks absolutely need this game to stay in the playoff conversation, but after Jordan Love's dud last week, I think Rodgers and the offense comes out swinging in this one. Look for Davante Adams to have a huge game and elevate his team to victory. Pick: Packers, 28-23.
Line: Packers -3.5
Spread: Packers
ML: Packers
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
We talked earlier about why the Broncos have a huge opportunity this week, well, this is the main reason right here as the Chiefs and Raiders meet in a massive AFC West showdown. The Raiders are coming off a bye and I can't for the life of me figure out why the Chiefs are favored on the road here? Historically, Derek Carr has given Patrick Mahomes every run for his money when these two teams collide and I don't see how that's going to be any different? Especially, since Mahomes doesn't look right so far this year. Pick: Raiders, 24-23.
Line: Chiefs -2.5
Spread: Raiders
ML: Raiders
L.A. Rams (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
The Rams got hit with a left hook at home last week courtesy of the Titans and now, they have a chance to jump back on their feet against an inconsistent 49ers squad. These NFC West games tend to have a little bit of trickery to them, but I think Matthew Stafford and the offense gets back on track here to keep pace with the Cardinals for the division lead. Pick: Rams, 27-20.
Line: Rams -4
Spread: Rams
ML: Rams
2021 Results
Week 9
ATS: 6-8
ML: 9-5
Overall
ATS: 73-60-3
ML: 84-52
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